Guolian Minsheng Securities raised a thought-provoking question in its latest strategy report: Is history repeating itself in the Hong Kong stock market? Looking back to early 2025, the Hong Kong stock market broke through with significant volume driven by both the &#34;spring rally&#34; and the &#34;Deepseek moment.&#34; Now, standing at the beginning of 2026, the market seems to sense a remarkably similar atmosphere.
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On January 19, Guolian Minsheng Securities released a report stating that the current environment of the Hong Kong stock market presents a striking &#34;mirror&#34; compared to the same period last year: investors still face weak expectations on the denominator side (overseas liquidity), while the numerator side (AI application layer) is brewing a situation of intense explosion.
For investors, this means that relying solely on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts for beta gains may have limited space, and true excess returns will come from precise bets on the &#34;revaluation of Chinese AI value.&#34; The iterative process of global large models and the speed of application landing will be the key determinants of success or failure in Hong Kong stock investments in 2026.
<h2>&#34;Mirror&#34; Market Under Liquidity Tightening: History is Rhyming</h2>
Guolian Minsheng Securities found through review that the Hong Kong stock market at the beginning of 2026 is at a delicate juncture. Looking back at 2025, the favorable market for Hong Kong stocks began after January, when the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts were seen as ample but not urgent, leading to limited liquidity on the denominator side. However, during the Spring Festival, the fermentation of Deepseek completely ignited the domestic artificial intelligence market, not only enhancing risk appetite but also driving the Hang Seng Internet sector to rise rapidly in February and March.
Guolian Minsheng Securities pointed out that the current environment is strikingly similar to that time. Recent inflation data released by the U.S. was lower than expected, but it has not reached the threshold to trigger an immediate shift in Federal Reserve policy, indicating that expectations for liquidity improvement on the denominator side of the Hong Kong stock market are relatively limited. However, the catalysts on the numerator side are already in place. Guolian Minsheng Securities emphasized that the large model catalysis in the AI application layer is continuously brewing, which is highly comparable to the situation at the beginning of last year, and investors should focus on the structural opportunities brought by the iteration of large models.
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<h2>Revaluation of Chinese AI Value: Certainty Premium in 2026</h2>
Looking ahead to the entire year of 2026, Guolian Minsheng Securities is firmly optimistic about the revaluation of Chinese AI. This is not only based on sentiment but also on a solid industrial catalysis timetable. Domestically, DeepSeek V4 is expected to be released during the Spring Festival in February, which will directly replicate last year's &#34;Spring Festival offensive.&#34; At the same time, the capital expenditure of domestic major companies is expected to continue to increase in 2026, providing a solid computing power foundation for model capabilities
Overseas, Guolian Minsheng Securities predicts that the first half of 2026 will see a concentrated period of model releases, with Google, Meta, and xAI expected to launch new generations of large models and multimodal video models in the first and second quarters. Against this backdrop of global resonance, hardware infrastructure will benefit first. Guolian Minsheng Securities believes that the vigorous development of large models both domestically and internationally will bring &#34;certainty premiums&#34; to AI hardware layer companies and recommends focusing on mature process manufacturers such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) and Hua Hong Semiconductor, as well as leading storage chip companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and domestic GPU leaders.
<h2>Breakthrough in Application Layer: A Qualitative Change from &#34;Chatting&#34; to &#34;Doing&#34;</h2>
Guolian Minsheng Securities believes that the enhancement of model capabilities is raising the ceiling of the application layer, and 2026 will be a key year for the landing of multidimensional applications. A highlight is the platform-based internet companies with &#34;Chinese characteristics.&#34; Guolian Minsheng Securities specifically mentioned Alibaba's AI assistant &#34;Qianwen app,&#34; which surpassed 100 million monthly active users (MAU) just two months after its launch and introduced over 400 service functions on January 15, marking the official acceleration of Alibaba's AI strategy from the &#34;model layer&#34; to the &#34;application layer,&#34; leading the industry from simple &#34;chat dialogues&#34; into the &#34;AI service era.&#34;
In addition, Kuaishou's Keling has also exceeded Guolian Minsheng Securities' expectations in overseas markets, with its motion control feature receiving enthusiastic responses on overseas social media.
<h2>Intelligent Driving: The Largest AI Scenario for Large-Scale Implementation in 2026</h2>
Among all AI applications, Guolian Minsheng Securities defines intelligent driving/autonomous driving as the largest AI application direction that will be implemented and accelerated in 2026. This judgment is based on a series of significant industry dynamics: Overseas, the combination of Tesla's FSD and Grok has enhanced the intelligent driving experience, and on January 13, the U.S. House of Representatives lifted restrictions on 2,500 vehicles for Robotaxi companies, indicating that large-scale operations of Robotaxis are imminent.
Domestically, the expansion of OEMs and Robotaxi companies has also exceeded expectations. Based on this, Guolian Minsheng Securities recommends that investors focus on OEMs that are firmly developing full-stack self-research intelligent driving.
<h2>Capital Flow and Market Data: Giants Favored, Valuations Rebound</h2>
The flow of market funds corroborates the above logic. According to data compiled by Guolian Minsheng Securities, in the ranking of net inflows of southbound funds through Hong Kong Stock Connect this week, Tencent Holdings topped the list with a net buying amount of HKD 7.729 billion, followed by Kuaishou-W and Xiaomi Group-W with HKD 3.412 billion and HKD 3.275 billion, respectively, showing a strong preference for leading technology platforms.
From a valuation perspective, as of January 16, 2026, the Hang Seng Index PE has rebounded to 11.7 times, up 1.66% from last week, while the AH premium index has fallen to 129.11. In terms of individual stock performance, Alibaba-W surged 13.45% this week, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation rose 6.45%, validating the institutions' optimistic logic regarding platform companies and hardware infrastructure
Guolian Minsheng Securities continues to be optimistic about the revaluation of AI in China.
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Guolian Minsheng Securities pointed out in its latest strategy report that the Hong Kong stock market at the beginning of 2026 will be similar to that at the beginning of 2025, facing weak liquidity expectations, but there is a possibility of a dramatic explosion in AI applications. The report emphasizes that investors should pay attention to the value reassessment of Chinese AI, believing that excess returns will come from precise bets on AI. The market environment under liquidity tightening is similar to historical conditions, and the iteration of AI large models will be the key to the success or failure of Hong Kong stock investments in 2026

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