Goldman Sachs research report indicates that looking ahead to the first quarter of the fiscal year ending December 2026, Apple's (AAPL.US) iPhone is expected to outperform expectations, with continued growth in service business, forecasting earnings per share of $2.66, in line with market expectations; iPhone revenue is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with a shipment increase of 5% year-on-year (including a 26% year-on-year increase in iPhone shipments in China), driven by price/product mix growth of 8%.
Goldman Sachs also pointed out that iPhone demand in the next two years may benefit from the iPhone foldable (launching this fall, with shipments expected to be 4.5 million and 25.4 million units in fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively), and the iPhone release cycle will be adjusted to two seasons per year (the release dates for the iPhone 18 base model and iPhone Air 2 will be postponed from fall 2026 to spring 2027), along with a new software upgrade featuring iOS and Siri 2.0.
The firm also expects Apple's service revenue to grow by 14% year-on-year, benefiting from growth momentum in other categories (such as TAC, iCloud+, AppleCare+), and the new advertising format in the Apple App Store this year will bring further benefits; target price is $320; rating is "Buy."