<div id="readability-page-1"><div><div>Author: EeeVee&#34;As long as you don't invest in crypto, you can make money on everything else.&#34;Recently, the cryptocurrency market and other global markets seem to be experiencing starkly contrasting fortunes.Throughout 2025, gold rose by over 60%, silver surged by 210.9%, and the US Russell 2000 index rose by 12.8%. Bitcoin, however, after a brief period of new highs, closed the year with a negative candle.The divergence is intensifying at the start of 2026. On January 20th, gold and silver both reached new highs, the US Russell 2000 index outperformed the S&amp;P 500 for 11 consecutive days, and the A-share STAR Market 50 index rose by over 15% in a single month. In contrast, Bitcoin experienced its sixth consecutive day of decline on January 21st, plummeting from $98,000 back below $90,000 without looking back. After the October 11th crash, funds seemed to have decisively left the cryptocurrency market. BTC has been fluctuating below $100,000 for over three months, and the market has entered a period of &#34;the lowest volatility in history.&#34; Disappointment is spreading among cryptocurrency investors. When asked about their success in making money in other markets after leaving Crypto, some even share the &#34;ABC&#34; secret: &#34;Anything But Crypto&#34;—as long as they don't invest in Crypto, they can make money in everything else. The &#34;Mass Adoption&#34; everyone was anticipating in the last round has indeed arrived. However, instead of the widespread adoption of decentralized applications that everyone expected, it's a complete &#34;assetization&#34; driven by Wall Street. This round, the US establishment and Wall Street are embracing Crypto with unprecedented enthusiasm. The SEC approved spot ETFs; BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase have allocated assets to Ethereum; the US has included Bitcoin in its national strategic reserves; pension funds in several states have invested in Bitcoin; and even the NYSE has announced plans to launch a cryptocurrency trading platform. So here's the question: Why, after receiving so much political and capital backing, has Bitcoin's price performance been so disappointing while precious metals and the stock market are hitting new highs? And why isn't Bitcoin following suit when cryptocurrency investors routinely use pre-market US stock prices to predict cryptocurrency trends? Why is Bitcoin so weak? Leading Indicator: Bitcoin is a &#34;leading indicator&#34; of global risk assets. Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision, has repeatedly mentioned this in many of his articles. Because Bitcoin's price is purely driven by global liquidity and is not directly affected by any country's financial reports or interest rates, its volatility often precedes that of mainstream risk assets like the Nasdaq index. According to MacroMicro data, Bitcoin's price turning points have repeatedly preceded the S&amp;P 500 index in recent years. Therefore, once Bitcoin's upward momentum, as a leading indicator, stalls and fails to reach new highs, it constitutes a strong warning signal that the upward momentum of other assets may also be nearing exhaustion. Secondly, Bitcoin's price, to this day, remains highly correlated with the net liquidity of the global US dollar. Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in 2024 and 2025, the quantitative tightening (QT) that began in 2022 continues to withdraw liquidity from the market. Bitcoin's record high in 2025 was largely driven by new funds brought in by ETFs, but this did not fundamentally change the tight global macro liquidity situation. Bitcoin's sideways movement is a direct reflection of this macro reality. In an environment of scarce liquidity, it's difficult for it to launch a super bull market. Meanwhile, the world's second-largest source of liquidity—the Japanese yen—is also tightening. The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate to 0.75% in December 2025, the highest level in nearly 30 years. This directly impacts a crucial source of funding for global risk assets over the past few decades: yen carry trades. Historical data shows that since 2024, each of the Bank of Japan's three rate hikes has been accompanied by a Bitcoin price drop of over 20%. The synchronized tightening by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan has further exacerbated the global liquidity environment. <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202601/5-1768963995844?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202601/5-1768963995844"/>The drop in cryptocurrency prices with each interest rate hike in Japan<h3>Geopolitical conflicts</h3>Finally, the potential &#34;black swan&#34; events in geopolitics are keeping market nerves on edge, and Trump's series of domestic and international actions in early 2026 have pushed this uncertainty to a new level.Internationally, the Trump administration's actions are highly unpredictable. From military intervention in Venezuela and the arrest of its president (unprecedented in the history of modern international relations), to the looming threat of war with Iran again; from attempting to forcibly purchase Greenland to issuing new tariff threats against the European Union, this series of radical unilateralist actions is comprehensively escalating tensions between major powers. Domestically in the United States, his actions have further fueled deep anxieties about a constitutional crisis. He not only proposed renaming the &#34;Department of Defense&#34; to the &#34;War Department,&#34; but has also ordered active-duty troops to prepare for potential domestic deployments. These actions, combined with his previous remarks hinting at regret for not using military intervention and his reluctance to lose the midterm elections, have made public concerns increasingly clear: Will he refuse to accept defeat in the midterm elections and use force to secure re-election? This speculation and pressure are already exacerbating internal contradictions in the United States, and there are signs that protests across the country are expanding. <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202601/5-1768963996119?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202601/5-1768963996119"/>Last week, Trump invoked the Insurrection Act and deployed troops to Minnesota to quell protests. The Pentagon has since ordered approximately 1,500 active-duty soldiers stationed in Alaska to stand by.The normalization of such conflicts is dragging the world into a &#34;gray area&#34; between localized wars and a new Cold War. Traditional full-scale hot wars have relatively clear paths, market expectations, and have even been accompanied by monetary easing to &#34;rescue&#34; the market.However, these localized conflicts are highly uncertain, filled with &#34;unknown unknowns.&#34; For risk capital markets that heavily rely on stable expectations, such uncertainty is fatal. When large capital cannot predict future trends, the most rational choice is to increase cash holdings and remain on the sidelines, rather than allocating funds to high-risk, high-volatility assets. Why aren't other assets falling? In stark contrast to the stagnation of the cryptocurrency market, since 2025, precious metals, US stocks, and A-shares have all seen successive rises. However, these market rises are not due to a general improvement in macroeconomic and liquidity fundamentals, but rather a structural market driven by sovereign will and industrial policies against the backdrop of great power rivalry. The rise in gold prices is a reaction of sovereign states to the existing international order, rooted in the cracks in the credibility of the dollar system. The 2008 global financial crisis and the 2022 freeze on Russia's foreign exchange reserves completely shattered the myth of the &#34;risk-free&#34; nature of the dollar and US Treasury bonds as the ultimate global reserve assets. Against this backdrop, global central banks have become &#34;price-insensitive buyers.&#34; They buy gold not for short-term profits, but to find an ultimate store of value that does not rely on the credit of any single sovereign power. Data from the World Gold Council shows that in 2022 and 2023, global central banks' net gold purchases exceeded 1,000 tons for two consecutive years, setting a historical record. This round of gold price increases was primarily driven by official forces, rather than market-driven speculative forces. The rise in the stock market reflects national industrial policies. Whether it's the US's &#34;AI nationalization&#34; strategy or China's &#34;industrial self-reliance&#34; policy, both involve deep state intervention and control of capital flows. Taking the US as an example, the &#34;Chip and Science Act&#34; has elevated the artificial intelligence industry to a strategic level of national security. Funds are clearly flowing out of large-cap tech stocks and into smaller, more growth-oriented stocks that align with policy direction. In China's A-share market, funds are also highly concentrated in sectors closely related to national security and industrial upgrading, such as &#34;information technology innovation&#34; and &#34;defense and military industry.&#34; This government-driven market trend has a fundamentally different pricing logic from Bitcoin, which relies on purely market-based liquidity. Will history repeat itself? Historically, this isn't the first time Bitcoin has diverged from other assets. And each divergence has ultimately ended with a strong Bitcoin rebound. Historically, Bitcoin's RSI (Relative Strength Index) relative to gold has fallen below 30 four times, indicating extreme oversold conditions: 2015, 2018, 2022, and 2025. Each time, when Bitcoin was extremely undervalued relative to gold, it foreshadowed a rebound in the exchange rate or Bitcoin price. <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202601/5-1768963997364?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.foresightnews.pro/202601/5-1768963997364"/>Historical Bitcoin/Gold Price Movements, with RSI Indicator BelowIn 2015, at the end of the bear market, Bitcoin's RSI relative to gold fell below 30, subsequently initiating the super bull market of 2016-2017. In 2018, during the bear market, Bitcoin fell by more than 40%, while gold rose by nearly 6%. After the RSI fell below 30, Bitcoin rebounded by more than 770% from its 2020 low.In 2022, during the bear market, Bitcoin fell by nearly 60%. After its RSI fell below 30, Bitcoin rebounded, outperforming gold again. From the end of 2025 to now, we have witnessed this historic oversold signal for the fourth time. Gold surged 64% in 2025, while Bitcoin's RSI relative to gold fell into oversold territory again. Is it still worthwhile to chase other assets now? Amid the clamor of &#34;ABC&#34; (Alibaba, Tencent, ABC), easily selling crypto assets to chase other currently seemingly more prosperous markets could be a dangerous decision. When small-cap US stocks start to lead the rally, historically it often marks the last hurrah before liquidity dries up at the end of a bull market. The Russell 2000 index has risen more than 45% since its 2025 low, but most of its constituent stocks have relatively poor profitability and are highly sensitive to interest rate changes. If the Federal Reserve's monetary policy falls short of expectations, these companies' vulnerabilities will be immediately exposed. Secondly, the AI ​​sector's frenzy exhibits typical bubble characteristics. Both Deutsche Bank's survey and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio's warnings list the AI ​​bubble as the biggest risk to the market in 2026. The valuations of star companies like Nvidia and Palantir have reached historical highs, and whether their profit growth can support such high valuations is increasingly being questioned. A deeper risk lies in the fact that AI's massive energy consumption may trigger a new round of inflationary pressures, forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy and burst the asset bubble. According to a Bank of America fund manager survey in January, global investor optimism is at its highest level since July 2021, with global growth expectations soaring. Cash holdings have fallen to a record low of 3.2%, and protective measures against market corrections are at their lowest level since January 2018. On one hand, sovereign assets are experiencing a frenzied surge, and investor sentiment is generally optimistic; on the other hand, geopolitical conflicts are escalating. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin's &#34;stagnation&#34; is not simply a matter of &#34;underperforming the market.&#34; It's more like a sobering signal, an early warning of greater future risks, and a build-up of momentum for a grander narrative shift. For true long-term investors, this is precisely the time to test their beliefs, resist temptations, and prepare for the coming crises and opportunities.</div></div></div>

The cryptocurrency market is underperforming compared to other global markets, with Bitcoin experiencing a significant decline while gold, silver, and stock indices are rising. Despite increased political and financial support for cryptocurrencies, including ETF approvals and institutional investments, Bitcoin's price remains stagnant due to tight global liquidity and geopolitical uncertainties. Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's struggles may signal potential exhaustion in other risk assets, as its price movements often precede those of the S&P 500. The tightening of liquidity from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan further complicates the market situation.

- The cryptocurrency market is diverging significantly from other assets, with Bitcoin's value declining while gold, silver, and US stocks are experiencing substantial gains.  
- This trend is attributed to the tightening of global liquidity, with Bitcoin serving as a leading indicator for risk assets, reflecting broader economic uncertainties fueled by geopolitical conflicts and domestic tensions in the U.S.  
- Historically, extreme oversold conditions in Bitcoin have preceded strong rebounds, suggesting that current trends might signal a potential shift in the near future for prudent investors.

Why is everything except cryptocurrencies rising?