Global LNG Supply Surge Threatens Near-Term Price Slump

New LNG export projects coming online and ramp-ups of recently commissioned facilities are expected to drive a 10% jump in global LNG supply this year, as the market shifts from tightness to abundance, analysts tell Reuters.The supply growth, mostly from the top two exporters, the United States and Qatar, is set to depress Asian spot LNG prices and Europe’s benchmark gas prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF). While lower prices would weigh on the profit margins of the U.S. exporters, they would incentivize additional demand, especially in Asia, where buyers have become more price sensitive to LNG imports, according to the analysts. In the U.S., LNG exports jumped by 26% in 2025 and will continue to grow through 2027, albeit at a slower pace, the Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) this month. The Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage 3 projects will continue ramping up to full operations, while Golden Pass LNG is expected to begin operations by mid-2026, the EIA said. Supply is set to grow beyond 2026, too, with the completion of Qatar’s mega expansion LNG projects by 2028. Between 2025 and 2030, nearly 300 billion cubic meters per year of new LNG export capacity is expected to come online from projects that have already reached FID and/or are under construction, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA).The agency noted that “This represents the largest capacity wave in any comparable period in the history of LNG markets”. Despite warnings of a near-term global LNG glut, top exporters in the Middle East, including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), see strong demand going forward and flag insufficient investment in supply in the medium to long term.The UAE is growing its LNG exports to meet surging global demand that will outpace investment in supply, Energy Minister Suhail al Mazrouei told Reuters last month.“I agree with his excellency, Minister of Qatar, that the demand is going to be much, much more than the projects that we are seeing,” the UAE official added. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, QatarEnergy’s CEO and the Minister of State for Energy Affairs of Qatar, said earlier in December “I have no worry at all about demand in the future. I have a worry about the lack of investment for additional supply in the future, which will cause prices to spike.” By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com