CITIC International lowers its forecast for this year's new energy vehicle sales, with Geely as the top choice

CMB International published a research report, considering that the sales data for November and December last year was weaker than expected, it maintained its forecast for China's passenger car retail and wholesale sales this year, expecting a year-on-year decline of 0.1% and a growth of 2.9%, respectively. Due to the tightening of the trade-in subsidy requirements, the bank slightly lowered its growth forecast for this year's new energy vehicle retail and wholesale sales, expecting year-on-year increases of 12.6% and 15.1%, respectively, to 13.95 million and 17.78 million units.

The bank believes that the poor sales performance last quarter may lead to some automakers' profits during the period not meeting expectations, and it has accordingly lowered the profit forecasts for Great Wall Motors (02333.HK), XPeng (09868.HK), Leapmotor (09863.HK), and GAC (02238.HK) for the fourth quarter of last year. It still expects XPeng to achieve breakeven in the last quarter, while Leapmotor may record a record high net profit.

CMB International has also raised the profit forecasts for BYD (01211.HK), Nio (09866.HK), and Li Auto (02015.HK) for the fourth quarter of 2025, expecting Nio and Li Auto to still record net losses in the last quarter, with net loss expectations reaching RMB 1.5 billion and RMB 112 million, respectively. CMB International maintains its profit forecasts for Geely Auto (00175.HK) for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the full year of 2026, continuing to list it as an industry favorite, optimistic about its profit visibility and attractive valuation, giving it a "Buy" rating with a target price of 25 yuan, believing that with a good product mix and continuously improving export sales, the gross profit margin can be enhanced this year