According to "Big Banks" research, Midea's shareholder return is expected to reach 6.7% this year, with a target price raised to 110 yuan

HSBC's research report indicates that industry data shows that air conditioner sales in mainland China fell by about 24% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of last year, due to a high base and continued pressure on industry demand. However, the bank expects Midea Group (00300.HK) to slightly outperform expectations in terms of revenue during the same period, as it has achieved sales performance that surpasses the industry average through mergers and acquisitions.

Looking ahead to 2026, the bank believes that domestic appliance demand will be affected by the gradual withdrawal of subsidies and high base effects, and expects the group to maintain mid-single-digit growth. At the same time, combined with dividends and buybacks, shareholder returns are expected to rise to 6.7% and 7% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

The bank has raised its revenue forecast for 2025 by 0.4% to RMB 457.5 billion and lowered its net profit forecast by 1.9% to RMB 44 billion. Additionally, it has reduced its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 1% and 4%, respectively, to reflect industry demand and production cost pressures; the target price for Midea Group's H shares has been raised from HKD 109 to HKD 110, while the target price for Midea Group's (000333.SZ) A shares has been lowered from RMB 99 to RMB 97, maintaining a "Buy" rating