
Why there is upside to US consumer spending in early 2026

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Bank of America forecasts a significant increase in US consumer spending in early 2026, driven by larger-than-usual tax refunds totaling about $65 billion due to recent tax cuts. This increase is expected to peak in the second quarter, with a notable uptick in spending starting in March. Despite a declining savings rate, the government’s larger deficits are likely to sustain consumer spending power until tax increases are implemented. The trend suggests that high earners will benefit most, maintaining demand in the economy.
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