According to "The Big Bank," Ping An International expects approximately HKD 1.6 trillion worth of shares to be unlocked in the Hong Kong stock market this year, with a peak of HKD 530.9 billion in September

Puyin International published a report stating that in 2026, the Hong Kong stock market will experience a wave of lock-up expirations, with the peak occurring in September, while the core sectors (information technology, consumer discretionary, and healthcare) will see their peak expirations in March-April. To assess the potential selling pressure and its impact on stock prices from this round of lock-up expirations, the bank conducted a comprehensive scan of the expiration scale and market impact from the perspectives of the overall market, industry, market capitalization, and individual stocks. The bank expects that as long as the upward trend of the Hong Kong stock market remains unchanged and liquidity is abundant, the lock-up expirations will not lead to a significant market correction, but individual stocks with a high lock-up ratio may face price pressure before and after the expirations. The bank has identified 60 targets that may face significant selling pressure in the next 12 months. For high-quality companies with strong fundamentals, if the lock-up expirations trigger irrational declines, it may instead provide opportunities for medium- to long-term positioning.

Puyin International estimates that in 2026, approximately HKD 1.6 trillion worth of shares will be unlocked in the Hong Kong stock market, with monthly unlock scales exceeding HKD 100 billion for six months. September will be a critical point for the Hong Kong stock market, with an estimated HKD 530.89 billion (a total of 44.62 billion shares) of restricted shares set to be unlocked, accounting for 32.6% of the annual total, equivalent to 31% of the total market capitalization of the related companies and 113% of the circulating market capitalization.

From a sector perspective, the gold and precious metals sector has a high unlock scale and a high proportion of circulating shares, while the peak unlocks for core sectors such as information technology, consumer discretionary, and healthcare will occur in March-April, and the supply pressure of their shares is worth noting