In "The Big Banks," China International Capital Corporation predicts that Meituan's adjusted net loss for the last quarter will be RMB 13.2 billion, lowering the adjusted profit forecast for this year and next

CICC's research report indicates that Meituan-W (03690.HK) is expected to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 4% to RMB 91.9 billion in the fourth quarter of last year, with an adjusted net loss of RMB 13.2 billion, corresponding to an adjusted net loss rate of 14%.

CICC anticipates that competition for Meituan will continue, but the focus of competition will shift towards the high unit price market and non-food retail sectors; in addition, further regulatory intervention against unfair competition is expected to curb irrational competitive behaviors in the industry. CICC also recommends closely monitoring the pace and specifics of regulatory measures. Meanwhile, recent competitors have strengthened their agent capabilities and integrated into delivery and other lifestyle scenarios, and AI may also become one of the variables affecting competition in the future.

CICC maintains its forecast for Meituan's adjusted net loss in 2025 at RMB 16.8 billion, and has lowered its 2026 forecast from an original adjusted net profit of RMB 19.6 billion to an adjusted net loss of RMB 9.7 billion, while also reducing the 2027 adjusted net profit forecast by 34% to RMB 29.9 billion. Considering the resilience of the business, CICC maintains a "outperform the industry" rating and a target price of HKD 125, corresponding to a projected adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of 23 times and an upside potential of 28%