Hong Kong home prices snap 3-year downturn as rents surge to a new high

Hong Kong’s lived-in home prices ended a three-year downturn with a 3.25 per cent increase in 2025, as the property market gallops into the new year buoyed by expectations of more transactions and further price gains, according to analysts. Rents climbed to a record high in December, boosting annual gains to 4.26 per cent in 2025 and marking a third consecutive year of increase, according to the Rating and Valuation Department on Wednesday. “Hong Kong’s residential market strengthened notably since mid-last year, supported by macro-level interest rate cuts, sustained gains in the Hong Kong stock market that boosted the wealth effect, and demand from talent schemes and non-local students,” said Alvin Leung, senior director of valuation and advisory services at Colliers. “Attractive rental yields and the full removal of property cooling measures in the 2024 policy address further fuelled strong market sentiment.” Second-hand home prices inched up 0.23 per cent in December, the seventh straight month of gains, the data showed. The last annual increase was in 2021, when lived-in home prices rose 3.45 per cent. The turnaround has set the tone for a broader rebound this year, with Ricacorp Properties predicting an annual growth of 6 per cent to 8 per cent. “Recent market activity has been very strong, with new properties selling well and both the price and volume of second-hand properties rising, so the rate of increase is expected to gradually expand,” said Derek Chan Hoi-chiu, head of research at Ricacorp. He added that holiday disruptions meant growth of just 0.5 per cent this month. Following the expansion of a flat HK$100 (US$13) stamp duty to units worth up to HK$4 million, small-sized flats outperformed the broader market in 2025, recording a 4.1 per cent increase year on year, real estate services provider CBRE said. “Looking ahead, when unsold inventory falls below 18,000 units, developers will be able to scale back discounts, helping stabilise prices and support steady upwards movement,” said Eddie Kwok, executive director for valuation and advisory services at CBRE Hong Kong. While official data did not capture movements in first-hand home prices, the swollen unsold stock of developers limited the bargaining options of existing homeowners looking to sell their units. New launches were consistently absorbed each month, CBRE said, with non-local buyers – many identified through Mandarin pinyin registrations – accounting for up to 70 per cent of transactions in some primary projects last year. “We expect overall residential prices to rise by 3 per cent to 5 per cent this year, while the luxury residential segment, due to its unique supply and superior locations, may see even more pronounced growth,” Kwok said. Colliers predicted rents would climb another 5 per cent, supported by talent schemes and an expanded admission cap for non-local students at Hong Kong’s tertiary institutions.