The Hang Seng Index "rose for six consecutive days" to a four-and-a-half-year high, with resource and financial stocks dancing

The US Dollar Index fell to a four-year low, while the Hang Seng Index rose for the sixth consecutive day today (up 1,339 points or 5.1%), reaching a four-and-a-half-year high. The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's announcement of the results of its first monetary policy meeting of the year on Wednesday, while awaiting earnings from tech stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8% due to a sharp decline in UnitedHealth (UNH.US), but the Nasdaq rose 0.9% overnight. At the time of writing, the yield on the US 2-year Treasury bond rose to 3.575%, and the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond rose to 4.247%, with the US Dollar Index at 96.24. The latest Dow futures fell 21 points or 0.04%, while Nasdaq futures rose 209 points or 0.8%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 11 points or 0.27% to close at 4,151 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.97 trillion yuan.

After opening 198 points higher, the Hang Seng Index expanded its gains, closing at a high of 27,826 points, up 699 points or 2.6%, marking a high not seen in over four and a half years; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 267 points or 2.9% to close at 9,512 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 145 points or 2.5% to close at 5,900 points. The total trading volume for the day increased to 361.523 billion yuan. The total trading volume for northbound trading was 137.845 billion yuan, while southbound funds recorded a net outflow of 3.427 billion yuan today (following a net outflow of 635 million yuan on the previous trading day), marking four consecutive trading days of net outflow. The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) rose nearly 2.7% to close at 28.04 yuan, with a trading volume of 32.741 billion yuan. The Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828.HK) rose 2.9%, with a trading volume of 16.863 billion yuan. Tech stocks performed well, with Alibaba (09988.HK) rising 2.1% to close at 173.5 yuan, with a trading volume of 17.57 billion yuan, Tencent (00700.HK) rose 2.3%, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388.HK) rose 2%.

Financial stocks performed well, with HSBC (00005.HK) and Bank of China Hong Kong (02388.HK) rising 2.2% and 2.5%, respectively. Domestic bank stocks such as China Construction Bank (00939.HK), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398.HK), and Bank of China (03988.HK) rose between 3.3% and 3.6%, while domestic insurance stocks like China Life (02628.HK) rose 3.2%. Local property stocks such as Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016.HK) and Henderson Land Development (00012.HK) rose 3.6%.

【Gold and Silver Stocks Soar, "Three Oil Giants" in Demand】

Spot gold once rose above $5,300, reaching a high of $5,311, while spot silver rose 1.6% to $113.8. Zijin Mining International (02259.HK) surged 8.7% to close at 253.2 yuan, Zijin Mining (02899.HK) rose 3.1%, Shandong Gold (01787.HK) rose 8.7%, and China Silver (00815.HK) and Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) rose 5.2% and 6.1%, respectively. Aluminum stocks also performed well, with China Hongqiao (01378.HK) rising 7.3% to close at 40.22 yuan, Chalco (02600.HK) rising 12.7%, Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) rising 8.3%, and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) rising 5.5%. The "Three Oil Giants" were in demand, with Sinopec (00386.HK) rising 3.6%, PetroChina (00857.HK) and CNOOC (00883.HK) rising 5% and 4.8%, respectively, and CNOOC Services (02883.HK) rising 4.8% Goldman Sachs published a research report indicating that due to the geopolitical tensions last week and the sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields before the weekend, there may be a surge in safe-haven demand, pushing gold prices above $5,000 per ounce. Concerns are still evolving, and Japan's policy uncertainty may persist until the February 8 election, keeping safe-haven demand high. For technical investors, Goldman Sachs views the current gold price level as an "uncertain" entry point. If the situation eases, it may lead to a temporary pullback in gold prices, but if risks escalate further, it could support gold prices overall or push them higher again. In the long term, gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend due to strong buying from emerging market central banks and increased investor demand when the Federal Reserve eases policies. Goldman Sachs' basic forecast still believes that gold prices will reach $5,400 per ounce by December this year; silver prices have risen 51% this year, and Goldman Sachs expects extreme price volatility in silver (both upward and downward) to continue, advising caution for investors with low tolerance for volatility.

【Stocks Rise Over 1,300, Mix for Mixue】

The Hong Kong stock market is performing well, with a rise-to-fall ratio of 32 to 21 for main board stocks (compared to 27 to 23 the previous day), and 1,307 stocks rising (an increase of 3.1%). Today, 79 constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index rose, while 7 fell, with a rise-to-fall ratio of 89 to 8 (compared to 61 to 35 the previous day). The market recorded short selling of HKD 59.84 billion, accounting for 20.36% of the total turnover of HKD 293.9 billion for shortable stocks.

The public offering of the mainland food and beverage retailer Ming Ming Hen Mang (01768.HK), which received over 1,899 times subscription, debuted today, reaching a high of HKD 445 and closing at HKD 400, up 69.1% from the listing price of HKD 236.6, with a total transaction amount of HKD 3.312 billion. Excluding fees, each lot of 100 shares yields a paper profit of HKD 16,340.

New consumption stocks showed mixed performance, with Pop Mart (09992.HK) rising 7% to close at HKD 231.4. Mixue (02097.HK) fell 10.9% to close at HKD 397.6, as UBS published a research report downgrading Mixue's rating to "Neutral," mainly reflecting recent risks. The bank lowered its net profit forecast for the company for 2026 to 2027 by 7%, which is 11% to 13% lower than the market's general expectations, reflecting rising raw material costs, an increased proportion of takeout, and intensified competition leading to deleveraging at the store level, which will bring short-term gross margin pressure. The current valuation corresponds to a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 30 times for this year, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 16% for net profit from 2026 to 2028