As winter storms disrupt supply and the dollar weakens in the United States, President Trump’s new threats against Iran have added fuel to the fire for oil prices. International crude oil futures rose further this Wednesday, reaching a four-month intraday high, with a cumulative increase of over 10% this month, despite the market's previous general expectation of oversupply.
According to CCTV News, on January 28th, local time, Trump stated on his personal social media platform Truth Social that &#34;a large fleet is heading towards Iran, acting swiftly,&#34; and expressed hope that this move would prompt Iran to &#34;return to the negotiating table&#34; to &#34;negotiate a fair and reasonable agreement—no nuclear weapons—and a deal beneficial to all parties.&#34; Trump also mentioned that this fleet &#34;is larger than the one previously sent to Venezuela,&#34; and that &#34;the next strike against Iran will be even more severe.&#34;
After Trump's post, international crude oil futures accelerated their rise. Before the U.S. stock market opened, U.S. WTI crude futures rose to $63.52, up over 1.8% for the day, while Brent crude rose to $68.53, up over 1.4%, both hitting intraday highs not seen since late September 2025.
Iran's UN delegation reiterated on social media platform X that Iran is ready to engage in dialogue based on mutual respect and interests, while stating it will &#34;defend itself and respond&#34; to U.S. aggression &#34;in unprecedented ways,&#34; after which oil prices narrowed their gains. During the early trading session of the U.S. stock market, the intraday gains for both U.S. and Brent crude narrowed to less than 1%, still set to close higher for two consecutive days and likely to create a new closing high in about four months.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1be82660-8eb8-47f3-9e4a-75f128eaff64.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1be82660-8eb8-47f3-9e4a-75f128eaff64.jpeg"/>
Iran's supply risks inject a risk premium into oil prices, driving a strong start for futures this year. The near-month price spread for the two major benchmark crudes has expanded to a spot premium structure this month, indicating tightening supply. The near-month price spread for Brent crude broke through $1 on Wednesday.
<h2>Supply Disruptions Become Major Drivers, Dollar Weakness Provides Additional Support</h2>
The winter storm in the U.S. has had a substantial impact on crude oil production. According to vessel tracking service Vortexa, crude oil exports from U.S. Gulf Coast ports dropped to zero on Sunday and only began to rebound on Monday. This massive winter storm swept across the U.S., severely disrupting supply chains.
Production interruptions in Kazakhstan, an OPEC+ member, have also supported price increases. Although the country hopes to gradually restore production at its Tengiz oil field within a week, industry insiders indicate that it may take longer. The pipeline operator CPC is conducting maintenance after a drone attack at a mooring point, and has now restored full loading capacity at the Black Sea terminal. This pipeline handles about 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports.
Reports on Wednesday indicated that representatives from OPEC+ revealed that oil-producing countries, including OPEC and Russia, will decide to continue suspending production increases at the meeting on February 1st.
The dollar is hovering near a four-year low against a basket of currencies, making commodities priced in dollars, such as oil, cheaper for buyers holding other currencies
The US dollar rebounded from a nearly four-year low after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the US would continue to implement a &#34;strong dollar&#34; policy under Trump’s leadership and denied that the government was intervening in the foreign exchange market, particularly the yen market. The surge in the dollar temporarily reduced the attractiveness of commodities priced in that currency, but this effect did not persist in suppressing oil prices.
<h2>Geopolitical Risks Continue to Ferment</h2>
According to CCTV News, the US Central Command announced on social media on Monday, the 26th, that the US Navy aircraft carrier strike group &#34;USS Abraham Lincoln&#34; is &#34;deploying to the Middle East.&#34; US officials told the media that an American aircraft carrier and support vessels have arrived in the Middle East, enhancing Trump's ability to protect US troops or potentially take military action against Iran.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump stated on Monday that the situation in Iran is still &#34;changing,&#34; and he has dispatched a fleet larger than the US military's presence in the waters surrounding Venezuela to the Middle East, while also stating that Iran indeed hopes to reach an agreement.
Xinhua cited US media on Monday stating that the &#34;USS Abraham Lincoln&#34; aircraft carrier strike group has entered the area of responsibility of the US Central Command in the western Indian Ocean. If the White House orders a strike against Iran, theoretically, the carrier strike group could initiate military action within &#34;one or two days.&#34;
Additionally, according to Xinhua, Trump said on Tuesday during a speech in Iowa that another fleet is heading towards Iran, hoping that Iran can reach an agreement with the US.
According to CCTV, earlier on Wednesday, the deputy commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Vahidi, stated that Iran has continuously strengthened its domestic comprehensive capability in recent years, making any action against Iran costly and significantly increasing risks for the adversary.
The Middle East has reacted to Trump's recent signals. The foreign ministers of Iran and Qatar emphasized the need to continue diplomatic efforts to ease tensions, while the Saudi crown prince stated that the country's territory would not be used for actions against Tehran. Iran is the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC, and concerns about supply disruptions continue to escalate.
<h2>Market Sentiment Shifts</h2>
The analyst team at Standard Chartered Bank, including Emily Ashford, wrote in a report: &#34;Market sentiment seems to be gradually turning more positive as the widely held bearish narrative of oversupply in the second half of 2025 is weakening. We expect volatility to rise, and the market will increasingly focus on supply and demand risks.&#34;
The cost of call options remains high relative to put options, reflecting market concerns about upside risks. Media surveys indicate that US crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to increase in the week ending January 23, while distillate inventories may decline.
Additionally, media reports indicate that US officials are working to issue a general license that would lift some sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector, which could exert downward pressure on oil prices

159309

561360

563150

600028

561760

Trump posted that a large fleet is heading towards Iran, larger than the fleet previously sent to Venezuela, hoping this move will bring Iran "back to the negotiating table." Following Trump's post threatening action, U.S. oil briefly rose nearly 2%, and Brent crude increased over 1%. Currently, supply concerns dominate the oil market; in addition to the situation in Iran, crude oil is also supported by disruptions in production due to winter storms in the U.S. and interruptions in Kazakhstan's oil field production

Wallstreetcn

China Universal CSI Oil & Gas Resources ETF

Guotai CSI Oil & Gas Industry ETF

Yinhua CSI Oil & Gas Resources ETF

Sinopec Corp.

Bosera CSI Oil & Gas Resources Index ETF

Trump's "call" to Iran combined with a weakening dollar has led to crude oil reaching a four-month high