<div id="readability-page-1" class="page"><div><div><p>Shaw, Golden Finance</p><p>In the early morning of January 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve's first FOMC meeting of the year concluded, announcing that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, in line with market expectations. Prior to this, the Fed had cut interest rates by 25 basis points in three consecutive meetings (September, October, and December of last year). The FOMC statement upgraded its assessment of economic activity, stating that it was expanding at a &#34;solid&#34; pace, the unemployment rate showed some signs of stabilization, job growth remained subdued, and inflation remained slightly high. The Fed also removed the statement regarding increased downside risks to employment that appeared in the previous three statements. There were two dissenting votes in this rate decision, one fewer than the previous one. Waller voted against the rate cut for the first time, aligning with the rate-cutting stance of Governor Milan, whom Trump &#34;handpicked.&#34; Subsequently, Fed Chairman Powell did not provide substantive responses to the highly anticipated political issues at the press conference.</p><p> Following the Fed's decision, US stocks and bonds saw little change. US stock indices were mixed, with tech stocks pushing the S&amp;P 500 briefly above 7000 points in early trading. US Treasury Secretary Bessenter's statement about a &#34;strong dollar policy&#34; boosted the dollar index. Bitcoin initially surged but then fell, encountering resistance around $90,000. The strong dollar rebound failed to stem the sharp rise in precious metals. Spot gold surged 4%, breaking Goldman Sachs' target price of $5400. Spot silver jumped over 4%. The Fed's decision to hold rates steady was in line with market expectations and offered nothing new. The significantly reduced divisions among FOMC voting members, with most supporting the pause, raise questions. What are the underlying considerations behind Powell's refusal to address several political issues during his press conference? Will he cut rates again before leaving office? How will the market interpret this decision, and where will the market go next? I. The Fed Holds Rates Steady at the Start of the Year; When to Resume Rate Cuts Remains Unknown. Early this morning, the Federal Reserve concluded its first FOMC meeting of the year, announcing that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, in line with market expectations. Prior to this, the Fed had cut interest rates by 25 basis points at three consecutive meetings (September, October, and December of last year). The FOMC statement this time upgraded its assessment of economic activity, stating that it was expanding at a &#34;solid&#34; pace, the unemployment rate showed some signs of stabilization, job growth remained subdued, and inflation remained slightly high. The Fed also removed the statement regarding increased downside risks to employment that appeared in the previous three statements. Following the Fed's decision, interest rate futures contracts indicated that the probability of a rate cut in April (Powell's last meeting as Fed Chairman) was 28%, slightly lower than previously thought; while the probability of a rate cut in June rose to 64%, an increase from before, and a second rate cut this year is very likely. The latest CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in March is 13.5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 86.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in April is 24.1%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 74%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 2.0%. Data from the prediction market Polymarket shows that after the decision was announced, the market expectation for keeping rates unchanged in March has risen to 91%, while the probability of betting on a 25 basis point rate cut has fallen to 8%. Following the announcement of this resolution, US stocks and bonds saw little change. US stock indices were mixed, with tech stocks pushing the S&amp;P 500 above 7,000 points in early trading. US Treasury Secretary Bessenter stated a &#34;strong dollar policy,&#34; which boosted the dollar index. Bitcoin initially rose but then fell, encountering resistance near $90,000, down 1.7% from its daily high. The strong dollar rebound failed to stem the sharp rise in precious metals. Spot gold surged 4%, a single-day jump of over $200, breaking through Goldman Sachs' target price of $5,400. Spot silver rose more than 4%, approaching Monday's all-time high of $117.7. The Fed's pause in action was entirely in line with expectations, causing almost no shock to major asset markets. With only two policy meetings remaining before Powell's departure, in March and April, the market expects it will be difficult to resume rate cuts during his remaining term. Secondly, there was a relatively unified opinion within the FOMC, with only two members opposing. Compared to the previous FOMC statement, this resolution made slight adjustments in its comments on the economic situation. Overall, the Fed's assessment of the economy was better than before. This statement upgraded its assessment of economic activity, stating that it was expanding at a &#34;solid&#34; pace, with the unemployment rate showing some signs of stabilization, job growth remaining subdued, and inflation remaining slightly high. The Fed also removed statements from the previous three statements regarding increased downside risks to employment. Furthermore, the statement removed the previous announcement of the so-called reserve management program, indicating that the New York Fed's reserve management purchases (RMP) program is proceeding as planned and unchanged. Of the 12 FOMC voting members at this meeting, two voted against the rate cut, one less than at the previous meeting. Ten FOMC members, including Fed Chair Powell and Fed Governor Cook (who was publicly dismissed by Trump last year), supported keeping the interest rate unchanged. The two dissenters both supported a further 25 basis point rate cut: Fed Governor Stephen Miran and another governor, Christopher Waller. Milan has consistently voted against interest rate decisions since assuming the board in July of last year, while Waller is voting against them for the first time since the policy statement last year exposed divisions within the Fed's decision-making body. **Some analysts suggest that Waller's move, as one of the four finalists for the next Fed chair, may be an attempt to align with President Trump's preference for low interest rates.** Following the announcement of this policy statement, the prediction market Polymarket showed that **bets on Waller's chances of being nominated for Fed chair have slightly increased to around 17%**, while the two leading candidates—BlackRock executive Rick Rieder and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh—have odds of being nominated at 36% and approximately 32%, respectively. </p><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428786_watermarknone.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="600" height="280" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428786_watermarknone.png"/></p><h2>III. Powell Did Not Respond to Hot Topics, Did Not Hint at Resuming Rate Cuts in the Near Future</h2><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell subsequently explained the pause in action and the economic situation at a press conference, and answered reporters' questions. Powell stated that the US unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization, and the labor market may be stabilizing after a gradual softening. Hiring, job openings, and wage growth have remained virtually unchanged. Consumer spending is resilient, and business investment continues to grow.</p><p> Powell stated that long-term inflation expectations are in line with the target, the slowdown in services inflation appears to be continuing, and core PCE inflation is likely to rise by 3% in December. Powell indicated that there is no predetermined path for monetary policy, and decisions will be made on a case-by-case basis at each meeting. He also stated that the impact of the US government shutdown should reverse this quarter. Powell said the Fed is in a favorable position to face the risks of its dual mandate; it is difficult to conclude from the latest data that policy is clearly restrictive, and the Fed will focus on key target indicators and let the data guide the direction. In response to reporters' questions, Powell stated that a significant portion of the tariff impact has already been transmitted through the US economy. Tariffs may lead to one-off price increases. Most of the inflation exceeding expectations comes from tariffs, not demand. Core PCE, excluding the impact of tariffs on goods, is slightly above 2%. The impact of tariffs on goods is expected to peak this year and then decline. If this happens, it will indicate that the Fed can ease policy. Downside risks in the labor market must also be monitored. When asked whether the Federal Reserve had responded to the subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice, Powell said &#34;no comment.&#34; Powell also stated that **no plans have been decided upon after the Fed chair's term ends**. Furthermore, Powell declined to comment on Republican Senator Thom Tillis's pledge to block a nominee. **Powell stated that he does not believe the Fed will lose its independence. If the Fed loses its independence, its credibility will be difficult to restore**. Powell also advised the next Fed chair not to get involved in politics. At the press conference, Powell said, &#34;Don't get involved in elected politics, don't get involved in elected politics.&#34;** With only two policy meetings remaining before Powell's departure, in March and April respectively, **to initiate interest rate cuts during Powell's tenure requires not only sufficiently clear turning signals from the data in the short term, but also the formation of consensus and completion of policy communication within the limited meeting window.** Powell did not offer any substantive responses to the highly debated political issues, and it is also possible that he intended to seek stability and &#34;cool down&#34; the situation during the remainder of his term. IV. How to Interpret the Fed's Pause in Action Regarding the Fed's first interest rate decision of the year, Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the &#34;Fed's mouthpiece,&#34; wrote that the Fed maintained interest rates as expected and did not clearly indicate when rate cuts might resume. In the December forecasts, 12 of the 19 officials expected at least one more rate cut this year to be appropriate. The answer depends on which scenario comes first: a collapse in the labor market or a confident return of inflation to the 2% target. Neither has occurred since December. Job growth has slowed significantly, but the unemployment rate has remained stable. Inflation data has become unpredictable due to statistical disruptions caused by the government shutdown. If the labor market does not weaken further, the next rate cut may not occur until after Powell's term as Fed chairman ends in May. Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital and known as the &#34;New Bond King,&#34; said he expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of Jerome Powell's term as chairman, and that the economic outlook is becoming more balanced. In an interview with CNBC's &#34;Closing Bell,&#34; Gundlach stated that Powell is emphasizing that while inflation has risen slightly, it is not as bad as feared a few months ago, and that the unemployment rate is no longer rising independently in any meaningful way. Goldman Sachs analyst Kay Hay stated that given strong economic data and signs of stabilization in the labor market, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current policy for the time being. However, we expect rate cuts to resume later this year, as the slowdown in inflation allows the Fed to implement two more &#34;normalization&#34; rate cuts, bringing interest rates back to what the Federal Open Market Committee members consider a neutral level. Ryan, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, stated... Detrick stated that the Fed hasn't stirred up any waves, and the market widely expects them to press the pause button. We may not see any rate cuts until Powell leaves the Fed in May. The potential good news is that they mentioned some positive factors regarding the labor market, but inflation is clearly still a concern. We know Milan entered the Fed to stir things up, but Waller's choice is somewhat intriguing. His name is still on the list of potential next chair candidates, so I'm sure he's also trying to get Trump's attention to show he remains firmly in the dovish camp. The Fed's independence is indeed a real issue, and the next chair will face enormous pressure to cut rates. Chris, Chief Market Strategist at MAI Capital Management in New York... Grisanti stated that today's Fed statement and press conference were noticeably hawkish. The description of economic activity was upgraded from &#34;moderate&#34; to &#34;solid,&#34; while wording regarding downside risks to employment was removed. At the press conference, Powell stated that after a period of weakness last year, the employment situation has &#34;stabilized.&#34; Inflation, while stabilizing, remains &#34;slightly high.&#34; Overall, the Fed's focus has shifted from unemployment to inflation. I don't believe there will be a rate cut in the short term. Furthermore, given the strong market performance and continued economic strength, I don't think there will be a rate cut in 2026, a stance that is more hawkish than current market expectations. </p><p><strong>Allspring analyst Matthias Scheiber stated that a stabilizing job market and sticky inflation have led the Federal Reserve to adopt a wait-and-see approach, assessing the effectiveness of previous rate cuts in supporting US economic growth. Current interest rates appear to be close to the neutral level, stabilizing employment while helping to control inflation. Nevertheless, the investment and capital spending boom driven by artificial intelligence, along with a significant rise in commodity prices, including industrial metals, could lead to a stickier inflation path this year. The market has gradually priced in one of the two rate cuts anticipated at the end of last year. The biggest focus will remain on the announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman; the competition remains open, but the candidate to succeed Powell is widely expected to be more dovish. Government pressure on the Fed to cut rates will remain a persistent theme this year. TD Securities Wealth Management analyst Sid Vaidya stated that the statement acknowledged strong GDP growth and a stable unemployment rate, raising the question of how much attention the Fed will pay to still high inflation. Recent rate cuts have supported employment. Therefore, Sid Vaidya suspects that the latest statement may be a signal that the Fed will refocus on inflation. CORPAY Chief Market Strategist Karl Schamotta stated that the Federal Reserve did nothing, and was very firm in its stance. By making a 10-2 vote and subtly revising its assessment of the labor market, the Fed clearly conveyed its intention to remain on hold. Market expectations for short-term policy easing may be disappointed. V. How Will the Market Develop in the Future? Following this pause by the Fed, what will be the future of major asset markets, including cryptocurrencies? Let's look at the main analyses and interpretations. 1. Juan, Head of Trading at Monex USA in Washington... Perez stated that given the surrounding market uncertainty, it is reasonable for the Federal Reserve, as a key financial authority, to remain cautious and refrain from adjusting interest rates. The lack of consensus among committee members means this decision helps alleviate some of the pressure on the dollar since January 20th. We believe the Fed's policy path will remain quite unpredictable. 2. Windemute stated that BTC's current price range shows signs of fatigue, but the market structure is not bearish; rather, it's stuck in a stalemate. The $85,000 support level has been tested multiple times, proving to be either a solid bottom or a trap waiting to break out. Despite net outflows of US funds and continued volatility compression, this support level has held, indicating buying pressure below (albeit moderately). Gold is playing the role Bitcoin should be playing. The stock market is awaiting earnings reports to validate valuation rationality. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is in &#34;no man's land&#34;—neither weak enough to break support nor strong enough to regain upward momentum. The macroeconomic environment has set the stage for a trending market, but the crypto market has lagged behind. This situation could change due to a reversal in ETF fund flows or a shift in the dollar's performance. Federal Reserve intervention in the yen's exchange rate and a continued weakening of the dollar would be a clear catalyst for risk assets. If the earnings reports of the &#34;Big Seven&#34; tech giants exceed expectations and the AI ​​narrative continues to gain momentum, it will drive the Nasdaq index upward, thereby boosting the crypto market. Conversely, if Powell releases hawkish signals or the tariff conflict escalates, the $85,000 support level will face a severe test. A 60-day consolidation period coupled with such a dense array of event risks will eventually force the market to choose a direction. </strong></p><p><strong>3. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that gold, silver, and Bitcoin are safe-haven assets. If the market still views Bitcoin as a &#34;risk asset,&#34; then it is undervalued.</strong></p><p>4. Analyst Ali Charts wrote that FOMC policy meetings are typically accompanied by high volatility and downside risks for Bitcoin. Even if the market remains optimistic before the meeting due to expectations of a rate cut, the reaction after the announcement is mostly bearish. Investors need to manage their positions carefully. 5. IG Group stated that the continued rise in gold prices and high stock market valuations may prompt portfolio rebalancing, with funds flowing into cryptocurrencies, thereby driving a new round of price increases. 6. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee stated that major financial institutions are vying to launch their financial tokenized products on Ethereum, the latest being Fidelity's stablecoin FIDD. Ethereum is the future of finance.</p></div></div></div>

<p>The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% during its first FOMC meeting of 2026, aligning with market expectations. The Fed upgraded its economic outlook, noting solid growth and stabilization in unemployment, while inflation remains slightly high. Following the decision, market reactions were muted, with mixed US stock indices and a strong dollar policy boosting the dollar index. Precious metals surged, with gold rising 4% and silver over 4%. Market expectations for future rate cuts have shifted, with a 64% probability of a cut in June.</p>

CoinLive

Gold.com

iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners

Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value

iShares Gold Trust

Avantis US Large Cap Value ETF

SPDR Gold Shares

Pro Ultr GLD

iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF

Us Gbl GLD & Met

Pro UltrPro Dow30

iShares Dow Jones US

NASDAQ Composite Index

ZHONGJIN GOLD

VG Growth

Invesco S&P 500 Eq Wgt ETF

Wtree Bbg Usd Bull

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

SD-GOLD

Dow Jones U.S. Index

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF

SPDR Djia

Abrdn Gold ETF Trust

The Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at the start of 2026, indicating a hawkish market sentiment. What's the outlook for the market going forward?