Goldman Sachs raises gold price forecasts for this year and next, increases target prices and earnings forecasts for Zijin Mining and CMOC

Goldman Sachs published a report stating that it has raised its gold price forecast for 2026 to 2027 by 10% to 16%, expecting an average price of USD 4,978 per ounce in 2026 and USD 5,585 per ounce in the first half of 2027. The bank also raised its copper price forecast for 2026 by 7% to USD 12,200 per ton. As a result, it has upgraded its earnings forecasts for Chinese copper and gold mining stocks for 2026 to 2027 by 9% to 33%, with its preferred stocks being Zijin Mining (02899.HK) and CMOC (03993.HK), as they will benefit not only from rising commodity prices but also from simultaneous growth in copper and gold production.

The bank expects Zijin Mining and CMOC to increase their copper production by 9% to 14% in 2026. Based on the current project progress, both companies are expected to achieve their production targets for 2028, which means production will increase by 40% to 45% compared to 2025. In an environment of rising gold prices, accelerating the acquisition of gold assets also poses an upside risk to earnings.

The bank has raised its recurring earnings forecast for Zijin Mining for 2026 to 2027 by 14% to 18%, with the target price for Zijin Mining H shares increasing from HKD 39.5 to HKD 52, and the target price for Zijin Mining A shares (601899.SH) rising from RMB 38 to RMB 50, maintaining a "Buy" rating.

At the same time, the bank has raised its recurring earnings forecast for CMOC for 2026 to 2027 by 20% to 24%, with the target price for CMOC H shares increasing from HKD 21.5 to HKD 27, and the target price for CMOC A shares (603993.SH) rising from RMB 21.5 to RMB 28, also maintaining a "Buy" rating