"Big Banks" JP Morgan: AIA's stock price has outperformed the market in the past year, and potential upward revisions of earnings forecasts will become a catalyst for valuation

JP Morgan published a research report indicating that AIA (01299.HK) has outperformed the market in the past 12 months, with a cumulative increase of 63%, compared to the Hang Seng Index's rise of about 37% during the same period. The current price level is approximately 1.5 times the forecasted price-to-intrinsic value ratio for the fiscal year 2026.

JP Morgan pointed out that AIA is a major beneficiary of the weakening US dollar. If the market further raises its future business growth forecasts, it will become the next catalyst for driving up its valuation. Expectations of improved performance in the Hong Kong, mainland China, and Thailand markets, as well as the potential disclosure of data regarding its joint venture business in India, will support the market's upward revision of AIA's new business value growth forecasts for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027. The firm raised AIA's target price to HKD 115 and maintained an "Overweight" rating