Breakfast | The three major indices showed mixed results, Microsoft’s AI spending sparked concerns, and its stock price plummeted by 10%

Market Overview Microsoft's AI spending sparks concerns, stock price plummets 10%, dragging down the US stock market. Precious metals experience huge fluctuations. The Nasdaq fell 0.72%. Microsoft once dropped 12% and closed down 10%, marking the largest daily decline since 2020, with a market value evaporation that is the second largest in US stock history. Meta surged over 10%. Tesla fell over 3%. After the earnings report released post-market on Thursday, Apple briefly rose over 2%, and SanDisk surged 12%. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell slightly by 0.6 basis points to 4.233%. Cryptocurrency market suffers a heavy blow. Bitcoin plummeted 6% to a two-month low. Ethereum fell over 7%, dropping below $2800. Gold prices initially surged 3.3% in the morning, approaching the historical high of $5600, before crashing, falling nearly 9% from the day's high, and then the decline narrowed. Silver hit a historical high of $121 before plunging over 12%. Copper prices initially surged over 11%, but then the upward momentum receded, with New Copper still rising over 6% for the day. The US-Iran situation supports oil prices, which have risen for three consecutive days, increasing 3% for the day, with US oil surpassing $65. During the Asian session, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and closed higher, with liquor stocks exploding, Kweichow Moutai rising over 8%, real estate soaring, the Hang Seng Index falling 1%, chips adjusting, and Shanghai gold, silver, and copper soaring. Key News China Xi Jinping meets with UK Prime Minister Starmer. The two sides achieved a series of positive results during Prime Minister Starmer's visit to China. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded: China has approved the import of the first batch of NVIDIA H200 AI chips? Jensen Huang: This visit to China is "very successful," and NVIDIA will achieve significant growth this year. Reports: ByteDance and Alibaba will launch new AI models around the Spring Festival. Reports: Alibaba is ramping up investment in AI and cloud computing, with potential investment increasing from 380 billion to 480 billion over the next three years. ByteDance CEO: The company's keyword for 2026 is "daring to climb high," with "high peak" referring to the Doubao/Dola assistant application in the short term. Doubao mobile phone makes a comeback, expected to be released in late Q2, transitioning from "being besieged" to "counter-siege." A 10 yuan silver commemorative coin has been speculated to over 80,000. Overseas The US Senate key vote failed to advance the funding bill, Trump claims to be close to reaching an agreement to avoid a government shutdown. Microsoft plummeted 12% during trading, marking the largest daily decline since the pandemic, once evaporating $430 billion, the second largest single-day market value loss in US stock history! Apple's earnings report crushed expectations, with last quarter's revenue and iPhone sales hitting record highs, with revenue in China surging nearly 40%. AI drives a surge in storage demand, SanDisk's performance greatly exceeded expectations, with the stock price rising nearly 15% in after-hours trading Report: SpaceX is considering a merger with Tesla or xAI. Cloud backlog order growth is below expectations, SAP shares hit their largest decline since 2020. Samsung Electronics makes a comeback, with Q4 revenue of 93.8 trillion won setting a record, and operating profit in the memory business surges by 465%, reclaiming the top spot in the DRAM market. The explosion of HBM reshapes the semiconductor industry landscape, with SK Hynix's annual profit surpassing Samsung for the first time. Report: Amazon is in talks to invest up to $50 billion in OpenAI. Human civilization faces the most severe test! Anthropic CEO warns: A super AI that could completely surpass Nobel Prize winners may arrive within 1-2 years. World Gold Council: Global gold demand breaks 5,000 tons for the first time, with retail and institutional investors as the main buyers. Speculation frenzy in gold and silver spreads! London copper rises over 10% during trading, reaching a new high, marking the largest increase since 2009. Market Closing Report US and European Stock Markets: The S&P 500 fell by 0.13%, closing at 6969.01 points. The Dow Jones rose by 0.11%, closing at 49071.56 points. The Nasdaq fell by 0.72%, closing at 23685.12 points. The European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.23%, at 607.14 points. A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98 points, up 0.16%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08 points, down 0.30%. The ChiNext Index closed at 3304.51 points, down 0.57%. Bond Market: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell by 1.59 basis points, at 4.2274%. The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond fell by 1.82 basis points, at 3.5529%. Commodities: COMEX silver futures rose by 2.87%, at $116.790 per ounce. COMEX gold futures rose by 1.97%, at $5408.30 per ounce. WTI March crude oil futures closed up 3.50%, at $65.42 per barrel. Brent March crude oil futures closed up 3.38%, at $70.71 per barrel, approaching the June 19, 2025 closing price of $72.23. Key News Details Global Highlights China Xi Jinping meets with UK Prime Minister Starmer. According to Xinhua News Agency, Xi Jinping emphasized that the essence of China-UK economic and trade cooperation is mutual benefit and win-win. This year marks the beginning of China's "14th Five-Year Plan," and both sides should expand mutually beneficial cooperation in education, healthcare, finance, and services, and carry out joint research and industrial transformation in fields such as artificial intelligence, biosciences, new energy, and low-carbon technologies Achieving common development and prosperity. It is hoped that the UK will provide Chinese enterprises with a fair, just, and non-discriminatory business environment. China is willing to actively consider implementing a unilateral visa exemption for the UK. A series of positive outcomes were achieved during UK Prime Minister Starmer's visit to China. According to Xinhua News Agency, both sides are committed to developing a long-term stable comprehensive strategic partnership between China and the UK, agreeing to establish a high-level climate and nature partnership, restore high-level security dialogues, hold a new round of strategic dialogues and economic financial dialogues within the year, and generally agree to restore normal exchanges between the legislative bodies of the two countries. Both sides welcome the establishment of a China-UK financial working group and the convening of its first meeting. China is actively considering implementing a unilateral visa exemption policy for UK citizens. China will reduce the import tariff on whisky from 10% to 5%. Both sides also reached multiple cooperation documents in areas such as finance, health, media, and education. Has China approved the import of the first batch of NVIDIA H200 AI chips? The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds. According to Global Times, “We have responded multiple times to related issues, and for specific questions, it is recommended to inquire with the relevant Chinese authorities,” said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jia Kun. Jensen Huang: This visit to China is "very successful," NVIDIA will achieve significant growth this year. Jensen Huang described his visit to China as "very successful" and revealed that the demand for the next-generation AI chip Rubin is "extremely strong." NVIDIA is collaborating with Intel to develop a custom X86 processor, expecting significant growth this year. He also warned that TSMC will face severe energy challenges in expanding its production capacity over the next decade. Report: ByteDance and Alibaba will launch new AI models around the Spring Festival. ByteDance and Alibaba plan to release their respective next-generation AI models (such as Doubao 2.0 and Qwen 3.5) during the Spring Festival holiday, marking an intensification of competition for dominance in China's AI application market. This battle not only concerns who can create the most popular consumer-grade AI super applications but will also profoundly impact the landscape of China's AI cloud market, which is expected to reach nearly $90 billion in scale over the next few years. Report: Alibaba increases investment in AI and cloud computing, future three-year investment may rise from 380 billion to 480 billion. According to reports, an informed source revealed that Alibaba is considering raising its investment in AI infrastructure and cloud computing from 380 billion to 480 billion over the next three years. Domestically, Alibaba has its self-developed chip Zhenwu 810E; overseas, it is also “using trucks to transport purchased GPUs.” An informed source said that at the most aggressive times, “even consumer-grade graphics cards like the RTX 4090 were bought in large quantities to build inference clusters and supplement inference throughput.” ByteDance CEO: The keyword for the company in 2026 is "Courage to Climb High Peaks," and the "peak" in the short term is the Doubao/Dola assistant application. Today, ByteDance's official account "ByteFan" disclosed part of the content from the company's first all-hands meeting for 2026. CEO Liang Rubo stated that ByteDance has set the keyword for 2026 as "Courage to Climb High Peaks." "There are many important opportunities in the AI era, and we must pursue the most important ones to climb the highest peaks," said Liang Rubo. He also clarified that for ByteDance, the "peak" in the short term is the Doubao/Dola assistant application. Doubao phone makes a comeback, expected to launch in late Q2 from "being besieged" to "counter-siege". ByteDance expects to release the second generation of the Doubao phone in Q2 2026, still with hardware provided by ZTE. To break through the previous "siege" caused by touching the data of major companies, Doubao has initiated a "counter-siege": negotiating partial permissions with app manufacturers and collaborating with small and medium-sized phone brands to integrate AI access for a breakthrough through scale. At the same time, ByteDance is also laying out hardware such as AI glasses, aiming to make Doubao a smart entry point for the Internet of Everything. 10 yuan silver commemorative coin has been speculated to over 80,000. According to China Fund News, recently on the second-hand trading platform Coin Cloud App, the 10 yuan denomination 2025 version of the Chinese Dragon silver commemorative coin has seen significant premiums, with some merchants pricing it at 12,600 yuan. As of now, the lowest price for the 2025 version of the Chinese Dragon silver commemorative coin on the platform is 170 yuan, while the highest price quoted by a merchant for two coins is 166,520 yuan, with a premium multiple as high as 8,326 times. In response to this phenomenon and the recent surge in precious metal prices, the official issuing agency, China Gold Coin Group, issued an important reminder on January 29, urging collectors to "participate in investments rationally and pay attention to risk management." Overseas Key vote in the U.S. Senate fails to advance funding bill, Trump claims close to reaching an agreement to avoid government shutdown. If the two parties fail to reach an agreement before midnight on Saturday Eastern Time and the two chambers do not pass the relevant bill, key departments of the federal government, including the Department of Defense, Department of Treasury, Department of State, and Department of Labor, will face funding interruptions. Reports indicate that negotiations between the White House and the Democrats are getting closer to the latter's demands to separate funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) from planned expenditures, providing funding for most federal government operations until the end of the fiscal year and short-term funding for DHS. Microsoft's stock plummets 12% during trading, marking the largest daily drop since the pandemic, evaporating $430 billion, the second-largest single-day market value loss in U.S. stocks**! **Microsoft's disclosure of a significant surge in data center and AI infrastructure spending triggered a sharp market sell-off. The stock fell more than 12% at one point during the day, ultimately closing down nearly 10%, marking the largest closing drop since March 2020, with a market value evaporating by about $430 billion at one point, becoming the second-largest single-day market value loss in recorded history, only behind Nvidia's $593 billion market value crash after the launch of low-cost AI models by DeepSeek last year. This plunge reignited market concerns about the return prospects of Silicon Valley's massive AI investments and dragged down technology stocks overall. Despite impressive financial report data, Microsoft's stock plummeted; where are the market expectations off? Microsoft's capital expenditure of $37.5 billion in a single quarter far exceeded market expectations, but did not immediately drive a significant leap in cloud business growth, as the company prioritized allocating a large amount of new computing power to self-developed AI products and internal research rather than fully utilizing it for revenue-generating Azure cloud services. This strategic layout led to market doubts about short-term capital efficiency and return visibility, forming a core expectation gap. Microsoft and Meta's quarterly reports addressed market focal points: computing power spending and AI demand are both strong! The latest quarterly reports from Microsoft and Meta jointly confirmed that AI computing power demand continues to exceed supply, with the supply tightness expected to persist until 2026. Both companies significantly raised their capital expenditure guidance. JP Morgan pointed out that this trend indicates that computing power investment is entering a new expansion cycle, with related investments focusing on data centers, networks, and custom chips, benefiting the semiconductor industry chain continuously. Apple's financial report crushes expectations, with record high revenue and iPhone sales last quarter, and revenue in China surged nearly 40%. Apple's Q4 revenue growth rate doubled to 16% year-on-year, EPS increased by 18%, R&D expenditure exceeded expectations with a 32% increase, and iPhone revenue grew by 23%; service revenue increased by 14%, slightly below expectations, continuing to set quarterly highs for three years; revenue from Mac and wearable devices decreased by 6.7% and over 2%, respectively; revenue from Greater China was 17% higher than analysts' expectations; Q1 revenue is expected to grow by 13%-16%. Cook stated that due to "unprecedented strong" demand, iPhone sales "set historical highs in all regional markets"; Apple's active device installation exceeded 2.5 billion. After hours, Apple rebounded, rising over 2% at one point. AI drives explosive demand for storage, SanDisk's performance greatly exceeds expectations, and stock price rose nearly 15% after hours. Memory maker SanDisk reported after hours on Thursday that the company recorded significant growth in profits and revenue in the second fiscal quarter of 2026, which not only greatly exceeded Wall Street expectations but also significantly surpassed the company's previous guidance, stimulating the company's stock price to rise nearly 15% after hours Analysis indicates that as the application of artificial intelligence continues to expand, the demand for data storage is on the rise, driving strong growth in company performance. Report: SpaceX considers merging with Tesla or xAI. According to Bloomberg, SpaceX is considering a potential merger with Tesla while also evaluating another option—integrating with the artificial intelligence company xAI. Earlier the same day, Reuters reported that SpaceX and xAI are in discussions regarding the merger to complete the integration ahead of a major IPO planned for later this year. Cloud backlog growth slower than expected, SAP shares hit largest drop since 2020. European software giant SAP's cloud backlog grew by 25% in the fourth quarter, falling short of the CEO's previously promised target of 26%, leading to an 11% plunge in share price, marking the largest drop in five years. The CEO attributed the poor performance to extended negotiations caused by clients' geopolitical concerns, but the market is more worried about the impact of AI programming tools and a slowdown in cloud transformation. The company urgently announced a €10 billion buyback plan to stabilize the situation, raising doubts about whether it can restore investor confidence. Samsung Electronics makes a comeback, Q4 revenue of 93.8 trillion won sets record, operating profit in storage business surges 465%, reclaiming DRAM market leadership. Financial reports show that Samsung Electronics' Q4 operating profit reached 20.1 trillion won, soaring by 209%. The semiconductor division contributed 80% of the profit, with operating profit in the storage business surging 465%, successfully entering the supply chains of Nvidia and Google with HBM3, reclaiming the title of DRAM sales champion. The company has completed the development of HBM4, achieving a speed of 11.7Gbps, and will fully ship to Nvidia next month. Institutions predict that operating profit will reach 180 trillion won by 2026, a year-on-year increase of 314%. HBM explosion reshapes the semiconductor industry landscape, SK Hynix's annual profit surpasses Samsung for the first time. A historic turnaround! SK Hynix's annual profit of 47.2 trillion won has surpassed Samsung for the first time, becoming the biggest winner in AI storage chips with a 57% share of HBM memory and orders from Nvidia. Samsung bets on HBM4 to counterattack, and the technological competition between the two giants will reshape the global AI supply chain, determining the future landscape of the South Korean semiconductor industry. Hynix conference call: DRAM supply tightness may continue into the second half, striving for overwhelming market share in HBM4. SK Hynix stated that DRAM inventory has fallen to low levels and will continue to shrink in the second half, making it difficult to resolve the tight supply-demand situation in the short term. NAND flash memory inventory, primarily consisting of solid-state drives (SSDs), has been declining since the second half of last year and is currently at levels comparable to DRAM The company is fully committed to expanding HBM4 production, aiming to capture an "overwhelming" market share, and admits that even with full capacity, it is still difficult to meet demand. Report: Amazon in talks to invest up to $50 billion in OpenAI. Earlier reports indicated that NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Amazon were discussing a $60 billion investment in OpenAI, with a pre-investment valuation of $730 billion. Human civilization faces the most severe test! Anthropic CEO warns: A super AI that could completely surpass Nobel Prize winners may arrive in 1-2 years. Dario Amodei warned that a "powerful AI" that could comprehensively surpass Nobel Prize winners in fields such as biology, programming, and mathematics is likely to emerge in 1-2 years, and it remains unknown whether humanity can control it. He predicts that AI will drive GDP growth rates to 10-20%, but it may also replace 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within 1-5 years, leading to extreme wealth concentration and significantly lowering the barriers to biological weapon manufacturing. World Gold Council: Global gold demand exceeds 5,000 tons for the first time, retail and institutional investors become the main buyers. The World Gold Council shows that the pace of gold purchases by central banks will slow by one-fifth to 863 tons in 2025, but remains high by historical standards, with a further slight decline in purchases expected to 850 tons in 2026. Meanwhile, retail and institutional investors have become the dominant force in gold purchases, with investment demand surging 84% to a record 2,175 tons, and gold ETF holdings increasing by 801 tons, ending four consecutive years of outflows. Speculation frenzy spreads! London copper rises over 10% during trading, reaching the highest increase since 2009. Starting at 2:30 AM London time, London copper rose over 5% in less than an hour; considering the characteristics of the time period, Thursday's surge may have been primarily driven by speculation. As U.S. stocks turned to decline in gold and silver during the early trading session, London copper retraced more than half of its intraday gains. Recently, copper prices have been supported by a weaker dollar, expectations of Federal Reserve easing, and long-term demand related to energy transition and global data center expansion, benefiting from geopolitical risks like gold. However, current supply and demand signals are diverging from price trends, with analysts warning that the upward trend may not be sustainable, as fundamentals do not support current copper price levels. Copper supply alert sounded! Glencore's copper output to drop 11% in 2025, ore grade decline becomes a "hard injury". Glencore's copper output is expected to decline by 11% year-on-year to 851,600 tons in 2025, and it has significantly lowered its production guidance for 2026, mainly due to declining ore grades and water resource constraints At the same time, the company is negotiating a full stock merger with Rio Tinto, which, if successful, will create an industry giant controlling nearly 10% of global copper production. Against the backdrop of high copper prices driven by energy transition and AI demand, Glencore plans to increase its annual production to 1.6 million tons by 2035 through the construction and restart of mines. Research Report Highlights "New Bond King" Gundlach: The dollar enters a long-term depreciation cycle, will continue to bet on gold and physical assets. Gundlach advises investors to stick to bets on precious metals and a weak dollar, believing this theme will continue to play out in the future. He stated that the dollar will face structural weakness, and even a weak economy will not change this trend, as long-term debt concerns and repayment pressures will continue to weigh on the dollar. New Bond King: The Fed will not cut interest rates again before Powell's term ends. Gundlach believes Powell is emphasizing the easing of inflation pressures and the halt in rising unemployment, betting that there will be no further rate cuts during Powell's term. The market currently expects two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, Gundlach recommends allocating 30%-40% to unhedged international stocks, stating that such positions can benefit from local currency appreciation against the dollar. Why has Nvidia recently underperformed the market, what is the market worried about? Nvidia's recent stock price has underperformed the market, not due to weakening fundamentals, but because the market is concerned about the financing capabilities of AI clients, the sustainability of capital expenditures, and increased competition under high performance expectations. Morgan Stanley believes these concerns are exaggerated, maintaining an "overweight" rating with a target price of $250. The key increment lies in the next-generation chip Vera Rubin, which achieves a qualitative leap in manufacturing efficiency, significantly shortening system assembly time, and greatly enhancing the certainty of mass production and delivery in 2026, likely solidifying Nvidia's dominant position in the next phase of AI computing architecture. The first round of "elimination matches" has begun! Morgan Stanley announces: humanoid robots have entered the "knife fight" mass production phase, PPT players are exiting. After researching the industry chain, Morgan Stanley stated that the gap between leaders and laggards in China's humanoid robot industry is rapidly widening, and the first round of industry reshuffling is imminent. Core component suppliers with technological strength and mass production capabilities will dominate in this wave of industrialization. As industry shipments are expected to multiply by 2026, suppliers with first-mover advantages will gain significant market share and pricing power. Domestic Macro The State Council Office issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption". According to Xinhua News Agency, the "Work Plan" proposes three supporting policies First, focus on key areas such as transportation services, housekeeping services, online audio-visual services, travel services, automotive aftermarket services, and inbound consumption; second, focus on potential areas such as performance services, sports event services, and emotional experiential services; third, improve the standard system, strengthen credit construction, and enhance financial support. China will layout more "Space+" future industries. According to Xinhua News Agency, China will accelerate the layout of "Space+" future industries. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, as the "chain leader" of the commercial spacecraft and application industry chain, plans to implement five major projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on promoting the development of space digital intelligence infrastructure, space resource development, space traffic management, and space tourism. In terms of space digital intelligence infrastructure, it will build gigawatt-level space digital intelligence infrastructure, create a new type of space system architecture integrating cloud, edge, and terminal, and achieve deep integration of computing power, storage power, and transportation power. China's commercial sector will develop more "Space+" scenarios, space tourism, resource development. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation stated on the 29th that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, it will plan to promote the development of new fields such as space tourism, space digital intelligence infrastructure, space resource development, and space traffic management. Domestic Companies Duan Yongping: I really didn't buy Moutai today. The liquor and consumer sectors experienced a strong rebound on January 29, with Kweichow Moutai's stock price soaring 8.61%, returning to 1,400 yuan. Duan Yongping responded that he did not buy on that day but revealed that he had recently exchanged some China Shenhua shares for Moutai. At this point, several fund managers believe that the valuation of the consumer sector is at a historical low, and the investment logic is shifting from "betting on total growth" to "selecting structural opportunities with brand, product, and globalization capabilities." Gold and copper prices soar, Chinese mining companies are making a fortune. Goldman Sachs' latest report significantly raised the profit forecast for Chinese gold and copper mining companies. The report raised the overall profit expectations for covered companies from 9% to 33% for 2026 to 2027, with Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum benefiting from capacity expansion and strategic mergers and acquisitions, with profit forecasts raised by 14%-18% and 20%-24%, respectively. Analysts pointed out that leading companies will benefit from both volume and price drives, and the current sector valuation remains attractive. With rising gold prices and increasing sales of gold concentrates, Sichuan Gold expects a year-on-year net profit growth of 69.23%-93.40% in 2025. Tianqi Lithium expects to turn a profit in 2025, with joint venture company SQM's performance recovery contributing to profit growth. Tianqi Lithium forecasts a net profit of 3.69 billion to 5.53 billion yuan in 2025, successfully turning around from a massive loss of 7.9 billion yuan the previous year The performance reversal is mainly attributed to three pillars: first, optimizing the pricing mechanism for concentrate, allowing costs to quickly align with the market, leading to a recovery in core business profitability; second, significant investment returns contributed by the performance rebound of the joint venture company SQM; third, benefiting from the appreciation of the Australian dollar, resulting in considerable foreign exchange gains. Frequent official announcements of all-solid-state batteries, the last shortcoming of pure electric vehicles is about to be addressed. The battery technology for new energy vehicles is experiencing critical breakthroughs: CATL has released the "Tianxing II" sodium-ion battery with excellent performance in extremely cold environments, aimed at addressing usage pain points in high-latitude regions; while the industry's more notable focus is on the ultimate form of all-solid-state batteries, whose laboratory data (such as 3000 kilometers of range and 5-minute fast charging) indicates that it will completely resolve the range, refueling, and safety anxieties of pure electric vehicles. Large-scale commercial implementation is expected to take about ten more years. Guosheng Securities delivers a "report card" for 2025: core business rebounds, brokerage strengthens, and net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to increase by nearly 80%. Zhongtai Securities expects a net profit increase of 40% to 60% last year, with "investment business" shining again. Overseas Macro U.S. trade deficit soared 94% month-on-month in November, significantly widening deficit with the EU. In November, the U.S. trade deficit with global trading partners nearly doubled month-on-month. Due to a significant widening of the deficit with the EU and the gradual impact of President Trump's tariff policy on the economy, the U.S. trade deficit rose significantly. The previous month, the trade deficit had fallen to its lowest level since early 2009, but in November it quickly climbed to $56.8 billion, an increase of 94.6% compared to October. Foreign media reports: Senior U.S. officials secretly meet with far-right groups attempting to split Canada, U.S. State Department responds. According to Global Times, reports from the Financial Times and the Daily Beast indicate that against the backdrop of deepening rifts between the U.S. and Canada, "very, very high-level" U.S. government officials had secretly met with a far-right separatist group attempting to undermine Canada's national foundation. In response, a U.S. State Department spokesperson acknowledged that such meetings had occurred but stated that the U.S. had "made no commitments." MSCI warns + Goldman Sachs strikes again, Indonesian stock market plummets 15% in two days, multiple circuit breakers triggered. Affected by MSCI's warning of a downgrade and Goldman Sachs' rating cut, the Indonesian stock market has plummeted over 15% for two consecutive days, triggering multiple circuit breakers. MSCI criticized fundamental issues with market transparency, warning that it may downgrade if improvements are not made before May. Goldman Sachs warned that this could trigger an outflow of $8 billion. Coupled with concerns over Indonesia's fiscal deficit and central bank independence, Indonesia is facing a severe capital outflow crisis Overseas Companies Microsoft's conference call addresses market concerns: We lack capacity, not orders; if GPUs were sufficient, growth would exceed 40%! Microsoft's record capital expenditure of $37.5 billion has triggered market panic, with a drop of over 6% in after-hours trading. During the call, the CFO bluntly stated, "If it weren't for shortages, Azure's growth would have exceeded 40%," countering the doubts. CEO Nadella revealed that paid seats for Copilot surged by 160%, revenue from the data platform Fabric skyrocketed by 60%, and announced the launch of the self-developed chip Maya 200, which reduces costs by 30%, demonstrating AI monetization capabilities and long-term cost control, while emphasizing the huge demand for "storage adjacent to computing" in AI. Tesla's conference call: Halting production of Model S/X to fully shift to AI, third-generation Optimus to be released this quarter, and this year is a big capital expenditure year. Musk announced the permanent halt of production for the flagship Model S and Model X to free up capacity for the production line of the Optimus robot, which aims for an annual output of one million units, and stated that China is the biggest competitor in the humanoid robot field. Additionally, Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI to deepen its AI layout, with capital expenditures expected to exceed $20 billion in 2026, focusing on computing infrastructure and self-developed chips. The Robotaxi fleet has surpassed 500 vehicles and will expand rapidly. Wall Street comments on Tesla's financial report: Automotive gross margin is a surprise, waiting for robots, preparing for a wave of capital expenditure. Wall Street's interpretation of Tesla's quarterly report is a mix of "surprise" and "concern." The surprise lies in the automotive gross margin exceeding expectations, showcasing its operational resilience. However, market focus quickly shifted to the company's aggressive strategic transformation: a capital expenditure plan of up to $20 billion, halting production of classic models, and fully betting on robots and Robotaxis, marking Tesla's deep transformation into an AI-driven embodied intelligence company. Wall Street's attitude is cautious, with several investment banks lowering their target prices, as the market enters a critical observation period of "waiting for technology to materialize" and "responding to a wave of capital expenditure." Meta's conference call: Recommendation systems are being rewritten by large models; a future without smart glasses is "hard to imagine". Zuckerberg stated during the call that Meta is transforming its "recommendation system" into a scalable engineering system similar to LLMs—this not only determines user duration but also affects ad pricing and conversion rates. Meta has clearly positioned AI glasses as the next-generation core terminal, stating, "In a few years, most people will wear AI glasses." Zuckerberg also proactively mentioned the acquisition of Manus, presenting it as a case for "enterprise tool subscription/integration," aiming to integrate commonly used enterprise tools into advertising and business management platforms At the best time for storage chips, Kioxia appoints semiconductor veteran as CEO. Amid the surge in AI storage demand, Kioxia has appointed seasoned semiconductor expert Hiroo Oota as the new CEO. This leadership change aims to seize the market upcycle and accelerate the core position of its high-performance NAND flash memory and enterprise-grade solid-state drives in AI infrastructure, thereby consolidating its industry leadership advantage. "American version of ASML" performance skyrockets, Lam Research conference call: Global wafer fab equipment market expected to surge to $135 billion by 2026. The financial report shows that Lam Research's revenue reached a record $20.6 billion in 2025, with earnings per share soaring by 49%, and the installation volume of new product Aqara doubling. The CEO predicted during the conference call that the global wafer fab equipment market will leap to $135 billion in 2026, although constrained by a shortage of clean rooms, strong growth is expected in the second half of the year. HBM and advanced packaging are the core engines, with the latter's growth rate expected to exceed 40%, and NAND upgrades are also accelerating. Today's News Preview Hong Kong's Q4 GDP. U.S. December PPI. Eurozone Q4 GDP. Germany's January CPI. Japan's January Tokyo CPI. Speech by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. Baido Apollo Open Platform 11.0 launch conference. ExxonMobil and Chevron to announce financial reports