The GDP of Hong Kong is estimated to have increased by 3.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of last year, with an annual increase of 3.5%, exceeding expectations

The Census and Statistics Department today (30th) released the advance estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2025.

According to the advance estimates, the GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 increased by 3.8% in real terms compared to the same period last year, while the increase in the third quarter was 3.7%. For the whole year of 2025, the GDP increased by 3.5% compared to 2024. The market expects the GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 to rise by 3% year-on-year; the annual increase is expected to be 3.2%.

Analyzing the main components of GDP, private consumption expenditure increased by 2.5% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, while the increase in the third quarter was 2.4%. For the whole year of 2025, private consumption expenditure increased by 1.6% compared to 2024.

Government consumption expenditure, calculated according to the national economic accounting definition, recorded a real increase of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, while the increase in the third quarter was 2%. For the whole year of 2025, government consumption expenditure increased by 1.6% compared to 2024.

Total local fixed capital formation, after a real increase of 3.4% in the third quarter of 2025, further increased by 10.9% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. For the whole year of 2025, total local fixed capital formation increased by 4.5% compared to 2024.

According to the national economic accounting definition, the total value of goods exports recorded a real increase of 15.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, accelerating from the 12.0% increase in the third quarter. During the same period, the total value of goods imports increased by 18.4% in real terms, while the increase in the third quarter was 11.7%. For the whole year of 2025, the total value of goods exports and imports recorded real increases of 12% and 12.6%, respectively, compared to 2024.

Service output increased by 4.9% in real terms in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year, following a 6.6% increase in the third quarter of 2025. Service input increased by 3.1% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025, while the increase in the third quarter was 2.3%. For the whole year of 2025, service output and input recorded real increases of 6.3% and 4.1%, respectively, compared to 2024.

A government spokesperson stated that the Hong Kong economy experienced significant growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. According to the advance estimates, the real GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, higher than the 3.7% increase in the previous quarter. Seasonally adjusted, the real GDP further increased by 1% compared to the previous quarter.

For the whole year of 2025, the real GDP recorded a robust growth of 3.5%, accelerating from the 2.6% growth in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of expansion. The growth momentum gradually strengthened throughout the year. Strong demand for electronic-related products and active trade within the Asia-Pacific region drove a significant increase in overall goods exports. Supported by the continuous growth of the tourism industry and active cross-border financial services, service output rose significantly. Locally, private consumption expenditure turned upward as the local consumption market gradually improved since the second quarter of the year With the increasingly solid trend of economic expansion, overall investment spending is accelerating.

Looking ahead, Hong Kong's economy is expected to maintain a good momentum this year. The global economy continues to expand moderately, coupled with strong global demand for artificial intelligence electronic-related products, which will support Hong Kong's export performance. On the local front, improved consumer and business confidence, along with expectations of further interest rate cuts in the United States, will benefit consumption and investment activities. Despite external uncertainties, including rising geopolitical tensions and the fluctuating economic, financial, and trade policies of certain major economies, the measures taken by the SAR government to develop the economy and explore diversified markets will support Hong Kong's economy