A Look At Constellation Energy (CEG) Valuation After FERC Blocks Amazon Linked Nuclear Power Deal

Constellation Energy (CEG) is back on many investors’ radar after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected a proposed Amazon related nuclear power deal, a decision that hit nuclear stocks and sharpened focus on CEG’s pending hyperscaler contracts. See our latest analysis for Constellation Energy. The FERC decision helped extend a sharp pullback, with Constellation Energy’s 30 day share price return of 19.5% and year to date share price return of a 21.5% decline, contrasting with a very large 3 year total shareholder return of about 3.5x. Recent momentum has clearly cooled, even as longer term holders remain well ahead. If you are weighing how AI related power demand could influence other names, this is a good moment to scan high growth tech and AI stocks as potential additions for your watchlist. With CEG down about 22% year to date but still carrying a relatively small 3% intrinsic discount and a large gap to analyst targets, investors have to ask: Is this a reset that creates an opening, or is the market already baking in years of AI fueled growth? Most Popular Narrative: 28.1% Undervalued Constellation Energy’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $399.93, well above the last close of $287.45, and ties that gap to data center driven nuclear cash flows. Growing demand for carbon-free, reliable power from large-scale customers such as data centers (Meta, Microsoft) and corporates (Comcast), driven by digitalization, electrification, and decarbonization goals, is creating new, longer-term, higher-margin contracts with price premiums, likely resulting in significant revenue and earnings growth as more transactions close. Read the complete narrative. Want to see what is baked into that premium? The narrative leans on steady top line expansion, firmer margins, and a richer future earnings multiple. Curious how those pieces fit together? Result: Fair Value of $399.93 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there is still a real risk that higher long term nuclear compliance and decommissioning costs, or weaker data center demand, could challenge those optimistic cash flow assumptions. Find out about the key risks to this Constellation Energy narrative. Another View: Rich On Earnings Multiples That 28.1% discount to fair value sits alongside a very different signal from earnings multiples. Constellation Energy trades on a P/E of 38x, compared with 21.3x for peers, 20.8x for the US Electric Utilities industry, and a fair ratio of 31.2x. In plain terms, the stock carries a premium that could either compress or hold if the story plays out. Which side of that trade do you want to be on? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NasdaqGS:CEG P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own Constellation Energy Narrative If you see the story differently or prefer checking the numbers yourself, you can spin up your own view in just a few minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your Constellation Energy research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you stop with just one stock, you could miss out on other opportunities, so widen your search and let the data point you to fresh ideas. Spot potential turnaround candidates by scanning these 3526 penny stocks with strong financials that already show stronger financial footing than many expect at this end of the market. Explore AI infrastructure by checking out these 24 AI penny stocks that are tied to next generation computing, data, and automation themes. Focus on pricing gaps with these 869 undervalued stocks based on cash flows where current market prices sit below cash flow based estimates. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.