Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down 8% on the week, with historical cycle analysis suggesting further downside ahead, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen.



<h2>Cycle Timing Driving Bitcoin Weakness</h2>



Bitcoin has weakened not because its long-term thesis is broken, but due to cycle timing, tightening liquidity and repeating historical patterns, Cowen said in his latest podcast.



Cowen said the current downturn is unfolding almost exactly when Bitcoin has rolled over in prior cycles. 



He believes the cycle peaked in October 2025 at day 1,462, a point that sits roughly between the lengths of the previous two Bitcoin cycles.



He noted that every major Bitcoin bear market has begun in Q4 of the post-halving year: 2013, 2017, 2021 and now 2025, suggesting the latest decline follows a recurring structural rhythm. 



As Cowen put it, Bitcoin is falling &#34;because this is when it always drops.&#34;



<h2>Global Liquidity Remains The Key Driver</h2>



Cowen compared the current setup most closely to 2019, the only prior cycle where Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoric excess.



In both periods, there was no meaningful altcoin rotation, and price action formed a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.



He added that both cycle tops coincided with Federal Reserve balance sheet contraction, reinforcing his view that global liquidity, not M2 money supply, is the dominant force behind Bitcoin's price action.



Cowen focuses on net global liquidity across major central banks, adjusted for reverse repo usage and Treasury balances. 



He expects Bitcoin to continue underperforming equities until stock markets weaken, prompting central banks to respond with renewed liquidity that could eventually support crypto. 



<h2>What's Next For BTC</h2>



Cowen expects Bitcoin to revisit its 200-week moving average, a level historically tested during major downturns.



Using Strategy as a proxy for Bitcoin's cycle behavior, he noted it took roughly 98 weeks to bottom after its 2021 peak. 



Applying a similar timeline to the October 2025 top points to a potential cycle low around October 2026, aligning with the typical one-year duration of past Bitcoin bear markets.



Image: Shutterstock

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has dropped 8% this week, with analyst Benjamin Cowen predicting further declines until October. He attributes the downturn to historical cycle patterns and tightening liquidity, noting that major bear markets typically begin in Q4 of the post-halving year. Cowen emphasizes that global liquidity is the primary driver of Bitcoin's price, and he expects it to underperform equities until stock markets weaken. He anticipates Bitcoin may revisit its 200-week moving average, with a potential cycle low around October 2026, following historical trends.

- Bitcoin is down 8% this week, with analyst Benjamin Cowen predicting further declines based on historical cycle analysis.  
- Cowen argues that the downturn is linked to cycle timing, tightening liquidity, and recurring patterns observed in previous Bitcoin cycles.  
- He anticipates that Bitcoin will revisit its 200-week moving average and potentially reach a cycle low around October 2026.

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Bitcoin Down 8% In A Week And It Won't Get Much Better Till October, Analyst Warns