Morgan Stanley expects that the sales of domestic real estate will further decline in the first quarter

Morgan Stanley published a report stating that CRIC data shows that despite the low base effect due to the Lunar New Year, the average contract sales of the 25 major developers tracked by the bank still declined by 32% year-on-year in January. Due to weak buyer confidence, increased inventory, the introduction of passive policies, and the high base effect, the bank expects that property sales in the first quarter will further decline.

The bank continues to be optimistic about high-quality companies with credible self-rescue capabilities, including CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK) and Seazen (601155.SH); it is also optimistic about high-quality mall operators benefiting from the consumption orientation of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the strong tailwind of REITs policies. Among the residential market consolidators, it is optimistic about C&D INTL GROUP (01908.HK), which optimizes land reserves to support profit margins and is expected to return to a growth trajectory