Haitong International reiterates AIA "Outperform" rating, target price raised to HKD 108.5

Haitong International published a research report indicating that AIA (01299.HK) is expected to see a 14% growth in new business value in the fourth quarter of last year, measured at actual exchange rates (AER), and is optimistic about its growth prospects for 2026 to 2027. Driven by higher agent productivity, channel diversification, and potentially better performance in Hong Kong and mainland businesses, the firm predicts that the group's new business value will maintain a mid-double-digit growth trajectory from 2026 to 2027.

Haitong International expects the strong momentum of new business value growth in AIA Hong Kong to extend into the fourth quarter of last year, supported by factors including sustained strong demand for its participating products (especially GlobalFlexi) and the evolution of the local regulatory environment. In the third quarter of last year, the region's new business value growth accelerated to 40% year-on-year (compared to 24% year-on-year in the first half), with strong growth recorded in both mainland visitors and local clientele. The three main driving factors include the positive market response to the new participating product GlobalFlexi launched on July 1 of last year; the advance release of demand for participating products before the Insurance Authority set a cap on referral fees in July; and strong growth in independent financial advisors and brokerage channels against a low base before the Insurance Authority imposed limits on referral fees on October 1 of last year.

The firm reiterated its "Outperform" rating on AIA and raised its target price from HKD 99.5 to HKD 108.5, adjusting the company's new business value growth forecast for 2025 to 2027 upward by 0% to 7%