Odds of a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran rose on prediction markets Monday amid renewed optimism from Tehran.



<h2>Will Iran And The US Finally Agree?</h2>



The chances of the two countries reaching an agreement this year climbed to 57% on Polymarket before easing to 53%. The odds were only 30% a week ago.



Over $23,000 has been wagered on the outcome. The market will resolve to “Yes” if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research or weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the U.S. and Iran before Dec. 31.



Notably, the odds of a U.S. military strike on Iran fell sharply across various time horizons.



Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to buy &#34;Yes&#34; and &#34;No&#34; shares in USDC (CRYPTO: USDC). The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution.



<h2>The Geopolitical Implications Of US-Iran Talks</h2>



The jump in odds comes after Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed optimism about securing a nuclear deal, following what he described as “fruitful” talks with the U.S. through friendly countries.



Araghchi said a quick, achievable deal to prevent nuclear weapons is possible, but only if the U.S. lifts sanctions and recognizes Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear enrichment.



President Donald Trump refused to divulge much on the matter. “We have talks going on with Iran. We’ll see how it all works out,” Trump told reporters at White House.



The U.S. entered the Iran-Israel armed conflict last year by bombing three crucial Iranian nuclear sites, which Trump termed a “spectacular military success.” 



Photo Courtesy: danielo on Shutterstock.com

BSOL

EETH

Odds of a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran have risen to 53% on prediction markets, up from 30% a week ago, following optimistic statements from Iran's Foreign Minister. Over $23,000 has been wagered on the outcome, which hinges on a publicly announced agreement by December 31. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a U.S. military strike on Iran has decreased. President Trump remains non-committal about the negotiations, stating that talks are ongoing.

- The odds of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal have increased to 57% on Polymarket, reflecting renewed optimism from Tehran and rising from 30% a week ago.  
- Over $23,000 has been wagered, with an agreement defined as a publicly announced mutual decision before December 31.  
- Iran's Foreign Minister indicated that a deal could be achievable if the U.S. lifts sanctions, while President Trump remains non-committal about the discussions.

benzinga_article

Bitwise Solana Staking ETF

Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF

Proshares Ether Strategy ETF

Fidelity Ethereum Fund

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

Galaxy Digital

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF

Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long RIOT ETF

Bit Digital

Grayscale Litecoin Trust (LTC)

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

Riot Platforms

Coinbase

Hut 8 Mining

VanEck Ethereum ETF

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

Grayscale Solana Staking ETF

Leverage Shares 2X Long CRCL Daily ETF

Solana

21Shares Ethereum ETF

Grayscale Ethereum Covered Call ETF

Grayscale Ethereum Mini Staking ETF

Bitfarms Canada

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

Bitwise MARA Option Income Strategy ETF

US-Iran Nuclear Deal In 2026? Here's What The Crypto Punters Are Betting On Even As Trump Remains Tight-Lipped