Breakfast | The three major indices opened high and then fell, with the technology sector facing sell-offs, and NVIDIA once dropped by 5%

Market Overview Anthropic's new tool triggers a sell-off in software stocks, with the U.S. tech sector, especially software stocks, experiencing the worst sell-off since April last year. Funds flowed into small-cap stocks, value stocks, and gold. The Nasdaq fell over 1%, while the Russell small-cap index rose 0.3% against the trend. The "seven sisters" of technology dropped 1.5%, with NVIDIA briefly falling 5%. After earnings, PayPal plummeted about 20%, and AMD dropped over 7% in after-hours trading. U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly, with the 10-year Treasury yield down 0.6 basis points to 4.266%. The dollar fell 0.15%. Cryptocurrency prices plummeted during the session. Bitcoin briefly fell over 7%, dropping below last April's low, while Ethereum plunged about 9%, nearing $2,100, but both rebounded significantly towards the end of the session, though still down. Spot gold rebounded sharply by 6.2%, nearing $5,000. Silver's intraday gain reached 12%, but later retreated, still up over 7%. Crude oil rose over 2% during the day, following reports that the U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone in the Arabian Sea. In the Asian session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1%, with space photovoltaic and computing hardware surging, while Cambrian Technology fell over 9%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped over 1%. Internet platforms saw a collective plunge, with Shanghai silver plummeting 16%. Key News China The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued opinions on anchoring agricultural and rural modernization and solidly promoting comprehensive rural revitalization. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association: Researching the inclusion of "copper concentrate" in national reserves. Tax rumors "surprise" Hong Kong stocks! Institutions interpret: overly extrapolated, very low credibility. Single-day net value plummeted 31.5%, Silver LOF experienced a huge shock! Guotou Ruijin responded: Why adjust the valuation? Why was there no prior announcement? Overseas Federal Reserve Governor Milan: This year, interest rates need to be cut by more than 100 basis points, looking forward to Walsh's upcoming performance. The U.S. House of Representatives approved a government funding bill, which will end the partial shutdown. Reports state that an Iranian gunboat approached a U.S.-flagged oil tanker, and an Iranian drone near a U.S. aircraft carrier was shot down by the U.S., causing crude oil to spike. U.S. stocks erupted in AI panic! Anthropic's new tool triggers a sell-off in software stocks, with Reuters dropping over 20% during the session. Private equity giant Apollo warned: "Software is dead," as AI reshapes the $440 billion valuation logic. AMD's Q4 data center revenue surged nearly 40% to a record high, but Q1 revenue guidance was not explosive enough, dropping over 7% in after-hours trading. NVIDIA's Jensen Huang denied rumors of changes in dealings with OpenAI: Everything is proceeding as planned. Novo Nordisk expects sales to drop 13% in 2026, a larger-than-expected decline, with U.S. stocks dropping over 10% during the session. Market Report U.S. and European Stock Markets: The S&P 500 fell by 0.84%, closing at 6,917.81 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.34%, closing at 49,240.99 points. The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 1.43%, closing at 23,255.185 points. The European STOXX 600 index rose by 0.10%, closing at 617.93 points. A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,067.74 points, up 1.29%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,127.11 points, up 2.19%. The ChiNext Index closed at 3,324.89 points, up 1.86%. Bond Market: The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond fell by 0.79 basis points, standing at 4.2695%. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 0.41 basis points, standing at 3.5675%. Commodities: COMEX gold futures rose by 6.94%, closing at $4,975.30 per ounce. COMEX silver futures increased by 11.05%, closing at $85.505 per ounce. WTI March crude oil futures rose by 1.72%, closing at $63.21 per barrel. News Details Global Highlights China Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Solidly Promoting Comprehensive Rural Revitalization. According to Xinhua News Agency, the document proposes that grain production should stabilize at around 1.4 trillion jin, and a new round of actions to increase grain production capacity by 100 billion jin should be implemented; promote the integration of artificial intelligence with agricultural development, expand application scenarios for drones, the Internet of Things, and robotics, and accelerate innovation in key agricultural biotechnology; comprehensively carry out a second round of pilot projects to extend land contracts for another thirty years after expiration; encourage financial institutions to increase funding for the agricultural and rural sectors, and enhance support for loan extensions and renewals for agricultural enterprises and farmers; scientifically and orderly promote the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population, and implement a system of providing basic public services based on registered residence. First Mention of "Regularized Precision Assistance": Expert Interpretation of the 2026 Central No. 1 Document. According to CCTV News, the Central No. 1 Document first introduces the concept of "regularized precision assistance." Lin Wanlong, Vice President of China Agricultural University: The biggest difference is three words, regularized. Before 2020, it was called the critical period, from 2021 to 2025 it was called the transition period, and starting from 2026, it is clearly stated as regularized assistance, with the core being great stability and small adjustments. Overall, previous measures have been effective, and these measures need to be stabilized. Of course, there are also specific policy measures that face further optimization issues, hence the term small adjustments China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association: Research on Including "Copper Concentrate" in National Reserves. Duan Shaofu, deputy secretary-general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, stated that in addition to expanding the scale of the national copper strategic reserve, it is also possible to study including copper concentrate, which has a large trading volume and is easy to liquidate, into the reserve scope. Analysts believe this is consistent with the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Copper Industry," which helps control smelting capacity, enhance bargaining power in the industrial chain, and ensure resource security, thereby stabilizing growth and facilitating transformation and upgrading in the nonferrous metals industry. Tax Rumors "Surprise" Hong Kong Stocks! Institutions Interpret: Over-interpretation, Extremely Low Credibility. According to Securities China, the main reason for the market's decline is still the "tax" rumors. During the process of internet giants' stock price plummeting, a message about "China will adjust the recognition of high-tech enterprises and related new tax policies" spread widely. Analysts believe that such "small essays" have circulated in the market before; similar reports appeared last year in foreign media but did not materialize afterward. Continuous monitoring is needed, and it is believed that policy implementation will be cautious. Single-Day Net Value Plummets 31.5%, Silver LOF Tremor! Guotou Ruijin Responds: Why Adjust Valuation? Why Wasn't There a Prior Announcement? Guotou Ruijin Fund stated that due to the sharp drop in international silver prices and the domestic futures limit on price fluctuations leading to price distortion, to avoid benefiting early redeeming investors and harming the interests of remaining holders, a temporary adjustment of valuation was made to reflect the true value. The lack of prior announcement was because international market prices were only confirmed after 3 PM, and there were concerns about triggering panic redemptions, following industry practices to release announcements only after the plan was confirmed. Overseas Gold and Silver Rebound, Intraday Gold Futures Rise Nearly 8%, Silver Rises Over 10%, "Dead Cat Bounce" or "Bull Market Restart"? Institutions reduced positions due to extreme volatility and gold and silver breaking through key trend lines, while retail investors supported the market by "buying the dip" in physical assets. Whether the current rebound is a short-term "dead cat bounce" or a restart of the bull market depends on whether gold can stabilize above key resistance levels, such as around $5,100, and whether silver can break through the $92 resistance. The recovery of retail interest will be a key signal for market stabilization. The long-term bullish logic (central bank gold purchases, interest rate cut expectations, etc.) has not been overturned, but the market needs time to digest high volatility and rebuild technical structures. Is the Gold Bull Market Still On? Wall Street Remains Bullish: Don't Fear Technical Corrections, Chinese Buyers Have Become a Strong Pillar in the Gold Market! The recent sharp drop in gold has been viewed by Wall Street as a "technical washout," and the bull market logic remains intact. Deutsche Bank remains bullish up to $6,000, emphasizing that Chinese buyers are frantically purchasing, with January gold ETF holdings increasing by 940,000 ounces, and buying intensity may reach three times that of last year; UBS indicates that $4,500 is a strong support level. Barclays believes that under the fiat currency credit crisis and policy turmoil, the gold premium will persist for a long time. Global Top Traders Comment: When Will Gold and Silver Rebound? Traders unanimously agree that the underlying logic of gold prices remains unchanged, but short-term speculation and retail investors' high-position squeezing have caused wild fluctuations. Goldman Sachs warns that gold prices may continue to test lows before volatility cools and retail long positions are cleared; however, based on three assumptions—central bank gold purchases, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and the private sector no longer increasing allocations—they maintain a gold price of $5,400 by December 2026. Bitcoin Drops Nearly 8% During Trading, Falling Below $73,000, Erasing Gains Since Trump's Election. Bitcoin fell below the year-to-date low set on April 7, 2025, after Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. Leverage liquidations intensified selling pressure, with institutions holding firm while retail investors exited. However, some industry insiders believe that the comprehensive winter in the cryptocurrency market may be nearing its end. Federal Reserve Governor Milan: More Than 100 Basis Points of Rate Cuts Needed This Year, Looking Forward to Waller's Upcoming Performance. Milan clearly stated in his speech that underlying inflation is not a problem, and he does not see much strong price pressure in the economy. He pointed out that part of the rise in long-term yields is due to improved growth expectations rather than heightened inflation concerns. U.S. House Approves Government Funding Bill, Ending Partial Shutdown. The U.S. House passed a funding agreement negotiated between President Trump and Senate Democrats, which is expected to end the partial shutdown of the U.S. government. The bill has now been sent to the president for signing. The House vote result was 217 in favor and 214 against. Reports Say Iranian Gunboats Approach U.S.-Flagged Tanker, U.S. Drone Nearing Iranian Aircraft Carrier Shot Down; Crude Oil Jumps. Reports indicate that a U.S.-flagged tanker was approached by six Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz, which ordered the tanker via radio to "shut down engines and prepare to be boarded"; Iranian media reported that some vessels were intercepted for "illegally entering Iranian territorial waters"; it was reported that an Iranian drone was shot down by a U.S. F-35 fighter jet after approaching the USS Lincoln in the Arabian Sea, with no casualties reported; Iran requested to change the location of the U.S.-Iran talks from Turkey to Oman, and to shift from multilateral participation to bilateral talks. Following the drone news, crude oil hit a daily high, with U.S. oil rising by 2.6%. U.S. Stocks Erupt in AI Panic! Anthropic's New Tool Triggers Software Stock Sell-off, Reuters Drops Over 20% During Trading In this round of sell-off, legal software and data service companies are at the forefront. Morgan Stanley analysts believe that Anthropic's new features for the legal field have intensified competition in the industry. Jefferies traders stated that SaaS stocks are facing an apocalyptic sell-off, saying, "People are just selling everything, regardless of price"; if even Microsoft is struggling, one can imagine how bad it is for companies that are more vulnerable to disruptive technology. Reports indicate that software stocks have huge exposure, and U.S. PE firms are facing a new round of sell-off. Private equity giant Apollo warns: "Software is dead," AI is reshaping the $440 billion valuation logic. AMD's Q4 data center revenue surged nearly 40% to a record high, Q1 revenue guidance not explosive enough, stock fell over 7% after hours. AMD's Q4 revenue exceeded $10 billion, setting a new record, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of over 30%. EPS growth slowed but was nearly 16% higher than analysts' expectations. Data center revenue rose to a record $5.4 billion, with MI308 chip sales in China generating about $390 million. U.S. export restrictions are expected to impact inventory and related costs by about $440 million in 2025. The midpoint of Q1 revenue guidance is $9.8 billion, slightly above consensus expectations but below some optimistic forecasts exceeding $10 billion. The CEO expects data center revenue to grow by 60% annually over the next three to five years. NVIDIA's Jensen Huang denies rumors of changes in the OpenAI deal: Everything is proceeding as planned. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated that he will participate in OpenAI's next round of financing, calling it "the largest private financing in history." Earlier on Monday, Altman also publicly expressed confusion about where these crazy claims came from, stating that they are creating "the world's best AI chips." Previously, there were market rumors that the "hundred billion dollar deal" between the two parties was stalled, leading NVIDIA's stock to close down nearly 3% on Monday and continue to decline by over 4% after the market opened on Tuesday. 120 times return, $100 billion floating profit, the hidden big winner of SpaceX's IPO—Google! The acquisition of xAI has paved the way for SpaceX's sprint towards a $1.5 trillion valuation IPO. For Google, which holds about 7.4% of SpaceX shares, this initial investment of only $900 million is expected to soar in book value to $111 billion, yielding a return of over 120 times. By entering SpaceX early and holding shares in Anthropic, this tech giant has quietly secured a dual dividend in space infrastructure and top-tier artificial intelligence without directly participating in operational risks Novo Nordisk expects sales to drop 13% in 2026, exceeding expectations with a decline, US stocks fell over 10% during trading. Novo Nordisk's Q4 sales fell 7.6% year-on-year, still stronger than analyst expectations, and the sales of the star weight-loss drug Wegovy also exceeded expectations; it is expected to see the first annual sales decline in nine years this year, with sales and operating profit expected to decline by 5% to 13% in 2026 at constant exchange rates, while analysts expect declines of 1.4% and 3.1%, respectively. The company stated that the guidance reflects expectations for sales growth in international business and sales decline in the US business; the global GLP-1 market is expected to continue to expand, allowing the company’s sales volume to increase, but at a lower actual selling price. Research Report Highlights How does Goldman Sachs view Waller? The market consistently "misjudges" the new Federal Reserve Chairman, and Waller's "balance sheet reduction" is difficult, while rate cuts are a prerequisite for promotion.. Goldman Sachs foreign exchange strategist Mike Cahill stated that it is a mistake to judge Waller's policy orientation solely based on his previous remarks, "willingness to cut rates is a prerequisite for him to get this job." Goldman Sachs economist Mericle pointed out that he does not believe Waller will push for a significant reduction in the balance sheet, as there is broad support within the Federal Reserve for the "ample reserves" framework. Goldman Sachs Treasury trader Brown bluntly stated that aggressive balance sheet reduction would be too destructive to risk assets. The "top ten surprises" of 2026 may disrupt the market: US stocks "rise first and then crash"? US Treasury yields break 5%, technology lags behind pharmaceuticals.. UBS released a warning of the top ten "surprises" for 2026: US stocks may experience a roller coaster of "first rising and then crashing," with the probability of being in a bubble exceeding 80%; the yield on 10-year US Treasuries may break 5%; overvalued technology stocks may underperform, while pharmaceuticals outperform; the US dollar continues to weaken, and assets in the Eurozone and India are expected to break through against the trend; "consensus leaning bullish" copper mining stocks may underperform. Domestic Companies What is the impact of the VAT increase on operators' profits? JP Morgan: China Mobile < China Telecom < China Unicom.. JP Morgan believes that the three major operators will be affected by the VAT rate increase (from 6% to 9%), with net profits expected to be under pressure in 2026, among which China Mobile will be relatively less impacted due to its higher profit margin. Operators will offset the negative impact through price increases, cost optimization, and growth in AI cloud business; currently, after the stock price correction, the high dividend yield remains attractive, maintaining an "overweight" rating. Mole Thread AI Coding Plan launched, the first domestically produced full-featured GPU + large model.! Mole Thread officially launched the AI Coding Plan intelligent programming service based on the domestically produced GPU MTT S5000 and GLM-4.7 code model, achieving a significant breakthrough in programming with domestic chips and large models The service offers four packages, compatible with mainstream tools such as Claude Code and Cursor, helping developers efficiently complete project development, marking a new practical stage for domestic computing power in AI core productivity tools. Overseas Macro "Almost unprecedented"! U.S. media: The Clintons agree to testify before the U.S. House regarding the Epstein case. According to Global Times, the lawyers for the Clintons stated in an email to Cuomo that their clients would "appear to testify on a mutually agreed date" and requested the House to halt the contempt of Congress proceedings. Testifying in the Epstein case is "almost unprecedented." Since former U.S. President Gerald Ford testified before Congress in 1983, no former president has been subjected to a congressional investigation under similar circumstances. Inflation prompts policy shift, RBA raises rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%, AUD rises over 1%. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%, leading to a short-term strengthening of the AUD. In response to a "substantial rebound" in inflation expected in the second half of 2025 and stronger-than-expected private demand, the committee unanimously decided to tighten policy to address capacity pressures. A recovering housing market, a tight labor market, and credit easing have hindered the decline in inflation, with the central bank warning that high inflation may persist longer. Overseas Companies Intel CEO: Memory chip manufacturers tell me that supply tightness won't ease until 2028. Chen Liwu stated at a Cisco Systems meeting that he communicated with two major memory manufacturers, who clearly informed him that "it won't ease until at least 2028." He noted that artificial intelligence will "absorb a large amount of memory." Why did Anthropic chase Clawdbot twice to rename it? The "wild" execution capability exhibited by Clawdbot is the root of the threat felt by Anthropic. Unlike ChatGPT, which is confined to a web chat box like a "canary," Clawdbot is a "monster" with hands. It runs directly on the user's operating system, capable of managing files, sending emails, and even autonomously seeking tools to solve problems, like that crazy case. With financing issues resolved, can Oracle's AI story be repriced? Oracle plans to raise up to $50 billion to support AI business expansion, balancing debt and equity to optimize its balance sheet and control dilution. Barclays believes this move eliminates long-term market concerns about its funding sources, stating that Oracle's stock is "too cheap" and does not reflect its growth prospects of over 30%, optimistic about a repricing of the stock "If you don't want to use ours, you don't have to": Palantir secures $4.3 billion in orders in Q4, CEO calls the company's performance a "landmark moment" in corporate history. The enterprise-level AI market is paying a high premium for "certain delivery." Palantir CEO Alex Karp clearly stated that the company's 127% "Rule of 40" score and 93% U.S. growth stem from customers viewing AI as "critical to survival," rather than just a technological experiment. The company has become the "operating system" for its clients by restructuring their business processes and achieved a 57% operating profit margin without significantly expanding its sales team, demonstrating its "product-driven" growth model and strong operational leverage. Pfizer's Q4 2025 revenue is $17.56 billion, non-COVID business grows 9%, full-year 2026 revenue guidance is $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion. Merck's full-year 2025 revenue is $65 billion, a 1% year-on-year increase, with 2026 revenue guidance of $65.5 billion to $67 billion, below expectations. Today's News Preview China, the United States, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, Japan, and India January Services and Composite PMI. U.S. January ADP Employment Change. Eurozone January CPI. Eurozone December PPI. U.S. Treasury Department releases quarterly refinancing announcement. U.S. San Francisco 2026 Artificial Intelligence Conference. U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change last week