<p>CITIC Bank (International) Personal and Business Banking Investment Director Zhang Haoen expects gold prices to fluctuate between USD 4,000 and USD 5,200 per ounce in the first quarter of this year. He stated that gold prices previously broke through USD 5,200 per ounce, mainly influenced by market speculation regarding the new Federal Reserve chair's inclination to cut interest rates, but the outcome did not meet expectations. He believes that in the long term, the demand for gold from Asian retail, central banks, and institutional allocations continues to rise, coupled with countries diversifying their dollar reserves, leading to a re-evaluation of gold's asset properties, and the outlook remains optimistic.</p>
<h2>Federal Reserve Policy Vacuum Likely to Keep Hong Kong Stocks Consolidating</h2>
<p>Regarding Hong Kong stocks, Zhang Haoen believes that the Hang Seng Index has short-term support at 25,500 points, with an annual range of 21,000 to 29,800 points. The main risks include the Federal Reserve's policy and successor, U.S. debt risks, industry disruptions brought by AI development, and variables in U.S.-China relations. During the Federal Reserve policy vacuum, he believes that Hong Kong stocks will primarily consolidate.</p>
<p>He suggests that investment in the first quarter should be diversified, prioritizing financial stocks with reasonable valuations and strong earnings support; the pharmaceutical sector is relatively defensive and can serve as a hedging option; energy and raw materials should be moderately diversified to avoid concentration in a single sector.</p>
<h2>Valuation of Hong Kong Tech Stocks Appealing</h2>
<p>Zhang Haoen also mentioned that the AI theme is driving tech stocks in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong, with valuations relatively more attractive than U.S. stocks, suggesting a slight increase in holdings; at the same time, high-dividend stocks show strong resilience in volatile markets, having outperformed the market in four of the past five years, and can be used for balanced allocation this year.</p>
<h2>Hong Kong Property Prices Expected to Rise by 4%</h2>
<p>CITIC Bank (International) Chief Economist Ding Meng stated that Hong Kong's economic performance was strong last year, with exports and the financial sector supporting growth; however, due to a higher base this year, the growth rate is expected to fall to 2.6%. He mentioned that the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate is influenced by the U.S.-China interest rate differential, and if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the Hong Kong dollar level may further decline, remaining in negative territory for about 80% of the time in the long term. Regarding the local property market, driven by rising demand and rental yields, it is expected to rebound, but high inventory will suppress prices, with an annual increase expected to be between 3% and 4%.</p>
<h2>Renminbi Exchange Rate Averaging 6.8</h2>
<p>Regarding the Renminbi, he expects the average exchange rate against the U.S. dollar to be around 6.8 this year. Ding Meng believes there are three major supports for the Renminbi: first, the exchange rate index is lagging, leaving room for appreciation; second, the current account is performing well, with exports supporting the currency; third, the People's Bank of China may not cut interest rates as much as the Federal Reserve, narrowing the short-term interest rate differential between the U.S. and China, along with funds diversifying away from dollar allocations, which is favorable for the Renminbi</p>

<p>CITIC BANK (International) Investment Director Zhang Haoren expects gold prices to fluctuate between USD 4,000 and USD 5,200 per ounce in the first quarter of this year, with an optimistic long-term outlook. The short-term support for the Hang Seng Index is at 25,500 points, with an annual range of 21,000 to 29,800 points. Major risks include Federal Reserve policies and Sino-U.S. relations. Investors are advised to diversify their allocations, prioritizing financial stocks and defensive pharmaceutical stocks. Chief Economist Ding Meng predicts Hong Kong's economic growth rate will fall to 2.6%, with property prices expected to rise by 3% to 4% for the year. The average exchange rate of the RMB against the USD is expected to be around 6.8</p>

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VanEck Gold Miners ETF

CMB International expects the Hang Seng Index to reach 29,800 points this year, and remains optimistic about the gold price outlook, with fluctuations between USD 4,000 and 5,200 in the first quarter