Japan News Media Polls: Ruling Conservative LDP on Track for Landslide Win in Feb. 8 Lower House Election, New Opposition Centrist Alliance Trailing

(MaceNews) - Japanese news media polls conducted between Feb. 3 and Feb. 5 and released Thursday point to a landslide victory for the conservative ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the Feb. 8 lower house election, with the party on track to secure a significantly larger win than indicated by initial surveys.None of the surveys said why voters are choosing the LDP over others while the ruling party has been embroiled in money politics scandals and many of its lawmakers have had close ties with the controversial Unification Church that helped LDP candidates in the past as a means of infiltrating Japan’s decision-making process.A Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper poll shows the LDP poised to exceed the 233-seat threshold needed for a simple majority in the 465-seat House of Representatives, with the party potentially approaching or surpassing an absolute majority of 261 seats. The survey indicates the main opposition bloc, Chudo, could lose around half of the 172 seats it held before the snap election was called.According to the same poll, the LDP’s coalition with Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) could reach the two-thirds supermajority of 310 seats required to override upper house opposition on legislation and to initiate procedures for proposing constitutional amendments.Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ended weeks of speculation on Jan. 19 by announcing her plan to call a snap election and dissolve the lower house on Jan. 23 at the start of the 150-day ordinary parliamentary session.She set election day on Feb. 8, giving many politicians (including her colleagues) little time to prepare. The opposition camp remains largely fragmented. The last-minute pre-election marriage between the largest opposition party that once ruled Japan briefly and a former LDP partner has so far failed to garner much voter support, probably because it hasn’t had enough time to communicate their campaign pledges including fighting inflation in daily necessities, which is a common goal set by both the ruling and opposition parties.Results from a Mainichi Shimbun daily poll also point to a dominant outcome for the LDP, indicating the party could win around 300 seats on its own. With coalition partner Ishin, the ruling camp could secure a two-thirds majority. Mainichi’s survey indicates the LDP is leading in more than 60% of the 289 single-seat constituencies, up from just over 50% in its initial poll during the election campaign officially launched on Jan. 27.In the powerful lower chamber of the Diet, at a 243 “comfortable majority,” the ruling party could have all the standing committees chaired by its lawmakers. A 261 “absolute majority” would also allow the winning party to dominate more than a half of the seats in each committee.The Mainichi poll also indicated that the new opposition group Chudo (Centrist Reform Alliance) between the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito is likely to lose a substantial number of its combined seats. Komeito ended years of partnership with the LDP in October, criticizing the ruling party of being too slow to address the root cause of its political funding scandals.Despite the strong showing for the ruling bloc, the Mainichi noted that 31% of respondents were still undecided for whom to vote in single-seat constituencies, adding that voting behavior in some districts could shift before election day. But that’s still down from 46% of the undecided in its previous survey conducted on Jan. 28-29A poll by the Nikkei similarly projects a decisive victory for the LDP. The business daily estimates the party is likely to boost its strength from the 198 seats that it had held before the lower house was dissolved on Jan. 23 and that it could even push the coalition close to 300 seats. The survey also showed Chudo facing the loss of about half of its pre-election strength.Japanese media polls differ in how they calculate opposition seat totals, with some using Chudo’s 172 seats held prior to the Feb. 23 dissolution of the lower house while others base estimates on the Feb. 27 issue of the official election bulletin counting 167 seats after excluding retiring lawmakers.