Under the banner of "Big Banks," the sales forecast for Nio in the next two years has been downgraded, and the target price has been reduced to 47.3 yuan

Citigroup's research report pointed out that Nio-SW (09866.HK) announced a positive earnings forecast yesterday, expecting non-GAAP operating profit to be between 700 million and 1.2 billion RMB (the same below), and GAAP operating profit to be between 200 million and 700 million RMB. This is the group's first quarter of operational profitability, which Citigroup attributes to the sales growth at the end of last year, improved product mix, and ongoing cost reductions.

However, Citigroup indicated that while the market should view the profit breakthrough at the end of last year as positive, the real challenge may lie in the sales performance forecast for the second quarter of this year. Given the downward revision of sales forecasts for this year and next, Citigroup has slightly lowered the target price for Nio (NIO.US) from $6.9 to $6.2, and the target price for H shares from HKD 53 to HKD 47.3, while maintaining the original valuation method of 1.1 times the sales ratio forecast for 2026; maintaining a "Buy" rating.

Based on the weak growth in orders for Nio in the first month of this year and the downward revision of sales forecasts for the electric vehicle industry, Citigroup has lowered the group's sales forecasts for this year and next by 10% to 13% to 400,000 and 471,000 vehicles, respectively, and has reduced revenue forecasts by 11% and 7%, with gross margin forecasts lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 16.5% and 17.8%, respectively. Therefore, the forecast for EBITDA has been adjusted from an increase of 366 million and 5.547 billion RMB to a decrease of 686 million and an increase of 4.504 billion RMB, while the net profit forecast has been adjusted from an increase of 515 million and 4.819 billion RMB to a decrease of 380 million and an increase of 3.932 billion RMB