As the efficiency of crystalline silicon batteries approaches theoretical limits, perovskite is becoming the next disruptor in the photovoltaic market.
In a recent report, Yang Runshi, an analyst at Guosheng Securities, stated that 2025 will be the first year of GW-level mass production for perovskite, as GW-level production lines from companies like Renshuo Photovoltaics, Hangzhou Colin, and China National Nuclear Power are gradually being established, leading to a capacity explosion in the next two years. Guosheng Securities predicts that global capacity will exceed 5GW by 2027 and break 30GW by 2030.
Industry iteration is happening. Currently, the laboratory efficiency of domestic single-junction perovskite has reached 27.3%, and tandem batteries have even surpassed 35.0%, significantly outpacing the 27.9% limit of crystalline silicon batteries. More critically, core equipment has achieved 100% localization, and stability has passed IEC commercial certification.
In addition, the cost curve is rapidly declining. The current unit production cost of perovskite modules is about 1.2 yuan/W, although higher than crystalline silicon modules, it is expected that with the localization of equipment, improved capacity utilization, and optimization of materials and processes, costs could drop to 1.0 yuan/W by 2026, approaching the level of crystalline silicon batteries.
This means that the logic of the photovoltaic sector is shifting from &#34;a game of excess capacity&#34; to &#34;incremental explosion driven by technological iteration.&#34; Winners are mainly concentrated in three main lines: leading equipment manufacturers with full-line delivery capabilities, core material suppliers, and major component manufacturers with advantages in tandem technology.
<h2>Technological Singularity: Efficiency Surpassing Crystalline Silicon, Stability No Longer a Roadblock</h2>
The core logic of photovoltaics is always efficiency. Crystalline silicon technology has hit a ceiling, while perovskite is opening up new spaces.
Efficiency Gap Leading: The highest efficiency of single-junction perovskite in the laboratory has reached 27.3%, very close to that of crystalline silicon. Even more disruptive is the perovskite-silicon tandem battery, which has a laboratory efficiency of up to 35.0%, far exceeding the theoretical limit of 27.9% for crystalline silicon batteries.
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From an industrial perspective:
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JinkoSolar's N-type TOPCon/perovskite tandem battery conversion efficiency has surpassed 34.76%;
Junda Co., Ltd.'s small-area perovskite-TOPCon tandem battery conversion efficiency has exceeded 33.53%;
Trina Solar's 3.1㎡ large-area perovskite/crystalline silicon tandem module power has reached 886W, setting a world record, with small-sized battery efficiency exceeding 35%;
LONGi Green Energy's dual-end tandem battery efficiency has been certified by NREL to reach 34.85%, and Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s small-sized perovskite-crystalline silicon tandem battery research efficiency has reached 34.78%.
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More importantly, the stability issue, once seen as the Achilles' heel, has made substantial breakthroughs.
GCL-Poly Energy has become the first company in the world to pass the German TÜV Rheinland's triple IEC standard stringent aging test (covering extreme environments such as damp heat and thermal cycling).
BOE Technology Group, Jidian Photovoltaics, and other companies have also completed dual IEC certification. Outdoor empirical data shows that the first-year degradation rate of the modules is controlled at 3.2%-4.5%, and the power generation in low-light conditions is 12%-18% higher than that of crystalline silicon
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<h2>2025 marks the beginning of the GW-level era, with capacity explosion in the next two years</h2>
According to statistics from Guosheng Securities, the capacity release of leading enterprises is accelerating, and the industry is transitioning from &#34;pilot lines&#34; to &#34;mass production lines.&#34;
Capacity implementation timeline:
2025 (the first year): The world's first GW-level production line of Jidian Photovoltaics will be put into operation in February; the GW-level production line of Xiexin Photovoltaics will be put into operation in June; the 1GW production line of Xinna Photovoltaics is expected to be put into operation in the second half of the year.
2026-2027 (explosion period): GW-level production lines of Renshuo Photovoltaics, Hangzhou Kelin, and China National Nuclear Power Photovoltaics will be successively implemented.
Long-term forecast: It is expected that global capacity will exceed 5GW by 2027 and break through 30GW by 2030.
Capital expenditure: The total investment for the 7 disclosed GW-level production lines has reached 8.51 billion yuan. As technology matures, the investment amount for a single GW has rapidly decreased from 1.5 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 1 billion yuan in mid-2025, and the reduction of investment thresholds will further accelerate capacity expansion.
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<h2>Industrial chain support: Acceleration of domestic equipment and material production</h2>
More notably, the core equipment for perovskite is fully self-controlled, with no &#34;bottleneck&#34; links. The four core process equipment for PVD, coating, laser, and packaging have achieved 100% localization.
Among them, Jiejia Weichuang won the bid for the complete line of perovskite battery research and production for 300mm x 300mm size, Maiwei Co., Ltd. won the industry's first complete line order for perovskite/silicon heterojunction stacked batteries, and Jing Shan Light Machine completed the delivery of the complete line equipment project for perovskite single junction and stacked solar cells, which will be exported to customers in the United States.
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Key materials localization has also made progress. In terms of TCO conductive glass, the TCO conductive film glass independently developed by Jinjing Technology has increased the localization rate of core perovskite materials to over 95%, with an annual production capacity of 45 million square meters, and has been applied in enterprises such as Jidian Photovoltaics, Xiexin Photovoltaics, and Xinna Photovoltaics. In terms of transport layer materials, the perovskite solar cell material products of Wanrun Co., Ltd. are applied in hole transport layers, perovskite layers, and electron transport layers, achieving continuous sales with multiple clients in the industry.
The packaging materials have been well matched. The POE film and butyl rubber produced by Foster are particularly suitable for the packaging and protection of perovskite batteries. The thermoplastic POE film specifically for perovskite batteries developed by Lushan New Materials is being tested by leading enterprises such as Xiexin Photovoltaics, Xinna Photovoltaics, BOE Photonics, Renshuo Photovoltaics, and Jidian Photovoltaics, showing good results, and has begun to cooperate with some clients for batch trial production. The IZO target material developed by Longhua Technology is mainly aimed at the perovskite battery field and has been applied in multiple laboratories and testing lines
<h2>Cost Economics: Approaching 1 Yuan/W, Material Costs Account for Over 70%</h2>
Photovoltaics is a game of costs. Although the current cost of perovskite is slightly higher than that of crystalline silicon, the path to cost reduction is clear, and the structures are completely different.
Currently, the investment amount for a single GW perovskite production line is about 1 billion yuan. According to Guosheng Securities Research, the investment in GW-level production line equipment accounts for 65-70%, approximately 600-700 million yuan, while public auxiliary and power systems require an investment of 150-200 million yuan. Based on a 150MW mass production line, the cost of a single-junction perovskite module of 0.72㎡ is about 1.2 yuan/W, which is higher than the current level of crystalline silicon.
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Unlike crystalline silicon, the material cost in perovskite modules accounts for as much as 76% (glass 29%, packaging materials 25%, functional layer materials 22%). Labor and depreciation account for only a small proportion, which means that with the localization and scaling of materials, the speed of cost reduction will be very fast.
Guosheng Securities predicts that with the release of GW-level production capacity and the integrated upgrade of equipment (such as three-in-one coating equipment), the unit cost of modules is expected to drop to 1.0 yuan/W by 2026. At that time, perovskite will have direct cost competitiveness to surpass crystalline silicon

Guosheng Securities pointed out that with the iteration of technology, the rapid decline in investment thresholds and costs, perovskite batteries will enter a period of capacity explosion in the next two years. It is expected that global capacity will exceed 5GW by 2027 and break through 30GW by 2030. The winners are mainly concentrated in three main lines: leading equipment manufacturers with full-line delivery capabilities, core material suppliers, and major component manufacturers with stacking technology advantages

Perovskite GW-level capacity explosion, what opportunities are there in the industry chain?