"Qianzhan" Securities expect HKEX's net profit to increase by 31% last year, focusing on new stock listings and business reform guidelines

AASTOCKS
2026.02.09 03:47

HKEX (00388.HK) will announce last year's performance on February 26 (Thursday), benefiting from the active trading of Hong Kong stocks (with an average daily trading amount of HKD 249.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 90%) and the significant increase in fundraising from initial public offerings last year, which rose 2.25 times year-on-year to HKD 285.8 billion. According to a comprehensive analysis of 7 brokerages, HKEX's net profit for the full year of 2025 is expected to be between HKD 16.721 billion and HKD 17.346 billion, compared to HKD 13.050 billion in the same period of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.1% to 32.9%, with a median of HKD 17.151 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.1%.

According to the comprehensive analysis of 7 brokerages, HKEX's total revenue for the full year of 2025 is expected to be between HKD 28.464 billion and HKD 29.098 billion, compared to HKD 22.374 billion in the same period of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.2% to 30%, with a median of HKD 28.616 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%. Investors will focus on HKEX management's guidance on optimizing trading lot sizes (which suggested last December to simplify the number of shares per lot from over 40 to 8), T+1 settlement, public shareholding revisions, and comments on handling new stock listings.

【Benefiting from soaring trading, investment income declines】

CICC estimates that the average daily trading volume of Hong Kong stocks last year was HKD 249.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 90%, with an average daily trading volume of southbound trading at HKD 121.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.51 times, and an 8% year-on-year increase in average daily trading volume at LME. It is expected that HKEX's revenue and other income last year was HKD 28.464 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%. It is estimated that trading fees and system usage fees revenue was HKD 10.353 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44%, clearing and settlement fees revenue was HKD 7.035 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49%, listing fees revenue was HKD 1.688 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and market data fees revenue increased by 7% to HKD 1.165 billion. However, the bank expects investment income and miscellaneous income to be HKD 4.904 billion, a year-on-year decline of 2%, due to a decline in margin investment income and external investment redemptions affecting investment performance. The bank expects HKEX's net profit last year to be HKD 17.151 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31%, with an EBITDA profit margin rising to 77.3%.

CICC expects the average daily trading volume of Hong Kong stocks in 2026 to be HKD 260.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, estimating that the average daily trading volume of southbound trading will be HKD 187.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 55%. It is estimated that for every HKD 10 billion increase in the average daily trading volume of Hong Kong stocks this year, HKEX's profit growth rate could increase by 2.4 percentage points. Looking ahead, the reshaping of "assets + capital" may open up HKEX's profit elasticity and long-term growth space.

Citi released a report stating that it expects HKEX's net profit last year to be HKD 17.139 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, estimating revenue and other income to be HKD 28.616 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%. It is estimated that in the fourth quarter of last year, due to seasonal factors affecting stock market trading volume, HKEX's net profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 is estimated to be HKD 3.7 billion, a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year decrease of 24% and 2%, respectively, with total revenue expected to be HKD 6.7 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14% and a year-on-year increase of 4% Affected by the new margin collateral arrangement, the investment income forecast is HKD 900 million, down 13% and 26% quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, respectively. The bank expects the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's adjusted return on equity for last year to be 30.9% (compared to 24.8% in 2024).

UBS stated that due to weak trading activity, reduced net investment income, and increased operating expenses, it expects the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's net profit and revenue after tax for the fourth quarter of 2025 to increase by 4% and 6% year-on-year, reaching HKD 3.9 billion and HKD 6.8 billion, respectively, while decreasing by 20% and 13% quarter-on-quarter. The bank anticipates that net investment income for the fourth quarter of last year will decline by 29% and 16% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter to HKD 856 million, mainly affected by the weakening of Hong Kong dollar interbank offered rates during the interest rate cut cycle. In terms of operating expenses, although an increase of 6% quarter-on-quarter is expected, a year-on-year decrease of 2% reflects the continued effectiveness of cost control.

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According to a comprehensive analysis of seven brokerages, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's net profit for the full year of 2025 is expected to be between HKD 16.721 billion and HKD 17.346 billion, an increase of 28.1% to 32.9% compared to HKD 13.050 billion in the same period of 2024, with a median of HKD 17.151 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.1%.

Brokerage│2025 Net Profit Forecast (HKD)│Year-on-Year Change

UBS│HKD 17.346 billion│+32.9%

Goldman Sachs│HKD 17.32 billion│+32.7%

DBS│HKD 17.278 billion│+32.4%

CICC│HKD 17.151 billion│+31.4%

Citi│HKD 17.139 billion│+31.3%

HSBC Global Research│HKD 17.074 billion│+30.8%

BofA Securities│HKD 16.721 billion│+28.1%

Based on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's net profit of HKD 13.050 billion for the full year of 2024.

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The comprehensive analysis of seven brokerages expects the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's total revenue and other income for the full year of 2025 to be between HKD 28.464 billion and HKD 29.098 billion, an increase of 27.2% to 30% compared to HKD 22.374 billion in the same period of 2024, with a median of HKD 28.616 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.9%.

Brokerage│2025 Total Revenue and Other Income Forecast (HKD)│Year-on-Year Change

BofA Securities│HKD 29.098 billion│+30%

DBS│HKD 28.767 billion│+28.6%

Goldman Sachs│HKD 28.635 billion│+28.0%

UBS│HKD 28.616 billion│+27.9%

Citi│HKD 28.506 billion│+27.4%

HSBC Global Research│HKD 28.5 billion│+27.4% CICC | 28.464 billion yuan | +27.2%

Based on HKEX's total revenue and other income of 22.374 billion yuan for the full year 2024

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