"Large Banks" CMB International: Nio achieves positive operating profit for the first time in a single quarter, new car cycle in the second half of the year expected to drive revaluation

Jiao Yin International published a research report indicating that NIO-SW (09866.HK) released an earnings surprise for the fourth quarter of 2025, expecting adjusted operating profits to reach RMB 700 million to 1.2 billion, marking the company's first positive quarterly operating profit. This turning point is mainly attributed to increased deliveries, a higher proportion of high-end products, and cost reduction and efficiency improvements, validating the operational leverage of the business model.

Looking ahead to 2026, although profits may fluctuate due to seasonal effects and cost volatility in the first half of this year, the launch of new large SUVs such as the ES9 and Lido L80 in the second half of this year is expected to boost gross margins. While the market still needs time to validate the continuity of profitability, the new vehicle cycle will become the core catalyst for valuation reassessment, maintaining a "Buy" rating. The firm sets a target price of $8 for NIO (NIO.US) and HKD 62.75 for its H shares