According to the report from "Big Banks" Research, POP MART's growth trajectory this year will tend to normalize, lowering revenue and profit forecasts

HSBC Research published a report indicating that POP MART (09992.HK) recently held its annual meeting for 2026, where management revealed that last year's revenue recorded nearly three times year-on-year growth, primarily driven by the strong global market growth of its core IP Labubu. The bank pointed out that Labubu successfully entered the plush toy sector, significantly amplifying its monetization capabilities and accelerating the increase in membership numbers and average revenue per user. HSBC estimates that even excluding the "The Monsters" series, the company's revenue in 2025 will still achieve year-on-year doubling, while the forecasted growth excluding the contribution from plush toys is about 50%.

Looking ahead to 2026, HSBC Research expects POP MART to transition from high-speed growth driven by Labubu to a more normalized growth trajectory led by retail and products. As supply scales expand and product availability improves, the anticipated "buying frenzy" may weaken, leading to a downward adjustment of the 2026 revenue growth forecast from 30.6% to 23.7%, and a reduction in the net profit growth forecast from 29.1% to 21.3%. The "Buy" rating is maintained, with the target price adjusted from 392.5 yuan to 354 yuan