<div id="readability-page-1">The current drawdown has not affected Bernstein’s Bitcoin[BTC] projection of hitting $150K by the end of 2026.In a recent note to clients, the analysts at the research and brokerage firm, led by Gautam Chhugani, said the current decline was the ‘weakest’ BTC bear case so far.<blockquote>“What we are experiencing is the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history”</blockquote>Unlike past bear markets, which were driven by blow-ups (the FTX implosion in 2022), hidden leverage, and other systemic risks, the 2026 market doesn’t rhyme, the analysts added.Chhugani blamed the current weakness on a ‘manufactured crisis of confidence’ driven by followers of the 4-year cycle. The analysts sarcastically wrote,<blockquote>“When all stars are aligned, Bitcoin community manufactures a self-imposed crisis of confidence. Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel. Media is back again to write an obituary. Time remains a flat circle on Bitcoin.”</blockquote>From its cycle peak of $126K in October, Bitcoin fell to $60K in early February, marking a 52% decline. At press time, it had slightly recovered to $69K.The past five BTC bear markets since 2011 have averaged an 80% drawdown, with the least being 72%. That would make a 52% decline in 2026, indeed, the ‘weakest’.However, if it were to match the past trends, that would imply an extra downside risk to $35.2K. Put differently, the current level was at the halfway point of a typical bear-market pullback.<h2>Bernstein downplays quantum fears</h2>On quantum computing fears, which is one of the major catalysts cited by bear analysts, Bernstein said that it was not an immediate threat.The analysts acknowledged quantum risk as a long-term threat, adding that all critical digital systems face similar risk and will transition to quantum-resistant upgrades together. This stance was similar to that of Grayscale and Strategy’s Michael Saylor.<h2>Is an extended BTC drop still likely?</h2>Even so, Bitcoin was not out of the woods just yet. According to Glassnode, at the current $70K, the unrealized loss translates to 16% of the market cap, echoing an early bear-market structure for the 2022 cycle. The loss hit 24% when BTC dropped to $60K, with Glassnode adding that,<blockquote>“This places the market in an intense bear regime, though still below extreme capitulation phases seen above 50%, suggesting a capitulation process is underway.”</blockquote><div id="attachment_569400"><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Glassnode-Bitcoin-scaled.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="2560" height="1440" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Glassnode-Bitcoin-scaled.jpg"/>Source: Glassnode</div>Bitfinex analysts, on the other hand, projected a sideways structure for BTC within the $60K and $74K price range for a while.<blockquote>“The market is likely to consolidate here ($60K-$74K) as it digests losses and resets positioning, ahead of clearer signals on whether this range becomes a base for recovery or a pause before further downside.”</blockquote><div id="attachment_569402"><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Bitfinex-Bitcoin-analysts.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1024" height="563" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Bitfinex-Bitcoin-analysts.png"/>Source: Bitfinex</div><hr/><h2>Final Thoughts</h2><ul><li>Bernstein analysts believe BTC will still make a new all-time high of $150K in 2026, calling the $60K drop the ‘weakest’ bear market.</li><li>However, Glassnode and Bitfinex analysts remained cautious, warning that further downside risk couldn’t be overruled.</li></ul></div>

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Bernstein analysts predict Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $150K by the end of 2026, describing the current bear market as the weakest in history, with a 52% decline from its peak of $126K. They attribute the decline to a 'manufactured crisis of confidence' rather than systemic risks. While acknowledging potential downside risks, Glassnode and Bitfinex analysts caution that Bitcoin may remain in a sideways trading range between $60K and $74K before a clearer trend emerges. Despite the current challenges, Bernstein remains optimistic about Bitcoin's future performance.

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Bitcoin’s ‘weakest bear market’ ever: Bernstein predicts $150K in 2026