Summary of Key Points from the U.S. January Non-Farm Payroll Report

Wallstreetcn
2026.02.11 14:22

  1. The non-farm payroll increase of 130,000 exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.3%, indicating that the labor market has shown strong resilience at the beginning of the year.

  2. Revisions and retrospectives: The "bleak truth" of 2025.

The annual benchmark revision significantly reduced the employment data for 2025, with a total downward adjustment of 862,000 positions. This results in an average monthly increase of only 15,000 people for 2025, making it the worst year for employment performance since 2003 (excluding years of economic crisis).

  1. Interest rate outlook: The rate cut window has been postponed again.

Strong employment and higher-than-expected wage growth (0.4%) have raised hawkish sentiment in the market. Traders have pushed back the full pricing of the Federal Reserve's next rate cut from June to July, and investment banks like CIBC have also moved their first rate cut forecast to June

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