ASX nickel stocks jump as Indonesia cuts production at giant Weda Bay mine

Key points:Indonesia has cut the 2026 production quota at PT Weda Bay Nickel by 71% to 12 million tonnes, part of a broader 30% reduction in national nickel ore quotas aimed at controlling global supply.ASX nickel stocks rallied on Thursday with Centaurus Metals up 15.4% and Nickel Industries up 2.8%, while nickel prices have gained 25% since mid-December on supply constraint speculation.Despite recent price gains and tighter Indonesian quotas, nickel faces structural demand headwinds from manufacturers switching to non-nickel battery chemistries and declining Chinese steel consumption.Nickel stocks are trading sharply higher on Thursday after the Indonesian government ordered the world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel, to significantly reduce production this year.The mine will receive a 12 million tonne ore production quota for 2026, down 71% from 42 million tonnes in 2025, according to Bloomberg.Indonesia manages miner output through annual permits known as RKABs, which can be adjusted at the mid-year mark. The country plans to issue total nickel ore production quotas of 260-270 million tonnes this year, down 30% from the 2025 target of 379 million tonnes.This marks another aggressive move by authorities to revive prices after a two-year slump that shuttered competitors across Australia and New Caledonia.The production cut is part of Indonesia's broader strategy to control global nickel supply after its output surged to approximately 65% of world production. This flood of supply triggered a prolonged price decline that forced higher-cost operations like BHP's Nickel West into care and maintenance.Nickel prices have rallied more than 25% since mid-December on speculation about supply constraints and geopolitical tensions. In January, Macquarie Group lifted its 2026 nickel price forecast by 18% to US$17,750 per tonne, citing a sharp drop in the expected surplus due to tighter Indonesian quotas.Despite the recent gains, prices remain largely flat over the past two years and are still down 40% since early 2023.Nickel price chart (Source: TradingView)ASX nickel stocks rallyLocal nickel stocks opened broadly higher, with larger cap names like Nickel Industries up 2.7% and development plays like Centaurus rallying to the highest level since October 2023.TickerCompany% ChgPriceCTMCentaurus Metals15.38%$0.68EGREcograf15.28%$0.42GBRGreat Boulder Resources15.00%$0.12PNMPacific Nickel Mines14.29%$0.02NC1Nico Resources12.00%$0.28NICNickel Industries2.77%$1.00ASX-listed nickel share price performance as at 11:30 am AEDT on Thursday, 12 February 2026 (Source: Market Index)Indonesia is applying similar supply management tactics to thermal coal. Mining quotas in the world's largest coal exporter are set to fall nearly 25% from last year. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association warned the cuts could force some operations to close and leave overseas buyers scrambling for alternative supplies.Despite the supply restrictions, nickel faces headwinds on the demand side. The metal is used in both stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries, but battery demand has disappointed as some manufacturers switch to non-nickel chemistries. China's steel demand is also undergoing a structural decline, projected to fall 1% in 2026, following a 5.4% decline in 2025.