LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) Valuation Check After Earnings Loss And Ongoing Share Price Underperformance

LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) has drawn fresh attention after its latest quarterly earnings, where sales declined 9.2% year over year and the company reported an adjusted loss per share, alongside a 22.2% 1 year share price drop. See our latest analysis for LyondellBasell Industries. The share price has started to recover, with a 30.16% year to date share price return and a 27.55% 3 month share price return from US$57.78. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of a 16.75% decline indicates that longer term momentum is still fading as investors reassess earnings risk after the weaker quarter. If this earnings setback has you rethinking where you look for growth, it could be worth scanning beyond chemicals using our screener of 23 top founder-led companies. With LyondellBasell posting a recent loss, a 56% intrinsic discount flag, and a Hold consensus from analysts whose average target sits below the current US$57.78 price, is this weakness mispriced risk, or is the market already accounting for any future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 13.2% Overvalued At a last close of $57.78 versus a fair value estimate of $51.06, the most followed narrative sees LyondellBasell as pricing in more upside than its fundamentals support under a 9.02% discount rate. LyondellBasell's strategic investments in circular and advanced recycling (MoReTec-1 and plans for MoReTec-2, plus expanding renewable feedstock capacity in Europe) position the company to benefit from rising regulatory and consumer demand for recycled and sustainable plastics, improving product mix and supporting higher net margins and long-term revenue growth. Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of revenue reset, margin rebuild, and earnings power this story assumes, even as analysts build in a shrinking top line and tighter multiples? The full narrative lays out the numbers behind that tension. Result: Fair Value of $51.06 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on chemicals demand and capacity trends, since prolonged oversupply or delayed recycling projects like MoReTec-2 could undercut the margin rebuild story. Find out about the key risks to this LyondellBasell Industries narrative. Another View: Low P/S Points To A Different Story While the narrative above sees LyondellBasell as about 13.2% overvalued versus a fair value of $51.06, the simple P/S lens looks very different. The shares trade on a P/S of 0.5x, compared with a 0.8x fair ratio, 0.8x peer average, and 1.2x for the wider US Chemicals group. That discount suggests the market is pricing in quite a lot of risk, so the question is whether you think the revenue and margin headwinds justify such a wide gap. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NYSE:LYB P/S Ratio as at Feb 2026 Build Your Own LyondellBasell Industries Narrative If you think the current story misses something, or you would rather weigh the numbers yourself, you can build a custom thesis in minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your LyondellBasell Industries research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Ready to hunt for your next idea? If you stop at just one stock, you might miss opportunities that fit your goals better, so put a few alternatives on your radar using our screeners. Zero in on value by checking companies our screener flags as 55 high quality undervalued stocks that combine quality fundamentals with a potential pricing gap. Prioritise resilience first and see which companies show up in our 85 resilient stocks with low risk scores that focuses on stronger balance sheets and lower risk scores. Spot potential early movers by scanning the 27 elite penny stocks with strong financials where smaller share prices come with detailed fundamental checks, not just hype. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for Free