<p>On February 16, there was some sunshine at times, and it was hot during the day. Last week, the Hong Kong stock market performed erratically, rising on Monday with a gap (26710-26879), climbing back above the 20-day moving average, closing up 468 points, and surpassing the 27000 mark. On Tuesday, it rose another 370 points, briefly reaching a high of 27397 for the month before retreating. The following two days saw narrow fluctuations, hovering around the 27000 level, and on Friday, it opened lower with a gap (26932-26774), closing at 26567, resulting in a mere increase of 8 points for the week. However, the gap was filled, indicating a weakening trend. On Friday night, the futures dropped to a low of 26246, approaching the 20-week line for support and rebounding, ultimately closing back above the 26500 level.</p>
<h2>Northbound Capital Pauses Until Next Tuesday</h2>
<p>This morning, the black futures hovered around the 26500 level, and the market is expected to open slightly lower today. It is worth noting that Northbound capital has paused this week and will return next Tuesday. Surprisingly, Northbound capital recorded a net inflow of 20.2 billion yuan on the eve of last Friday's holiday, likely stocking up for the New Year, or making early arrangements for the upcoming Spring Festival holiday.</p>
<p>Due to the Spring Festival holiday this week, the Hong Kong stock market will only have a half-day session today, and will resume trading on Friday, resulting in only one and a half trading days this week. The market is expected to have a cautious atmosphere, with incoming funds likely to be more prudent. Meituan (3690) is expected to take longer to turn a profit, which will inevitably put pressure on its stock price and may also drag down the performance of other similar stocks like Alibaba (9988) and JD.com (9618). This was also the reason why the market briefly dropped to around the 26200-26300 level during last Friday's night session.</p>
<h2>Hang Seng Index Must Not Fall Below 26200</h2>
<p>As for this morning, if the market follows the night futures and retests the 20-week line around the 26250-26300 level, this level must not be lost; otherwise, it may exacerbate the downward trend. Conversely, if the market can stabilize above 26500, there is a chance for a rebound. However, due to the half-day session and the holiday, the rebound is expected to encounter significant resistance around 26700-26800. Currently, the daily chart is forming a head-and-shoulders top pattern, and after Friday's gap down, another island reversal pattern has emerged. If the market cannot regain the 27000 mark in the short term, fill the gap from last Friday's drop, and eliminate the island threat, the outlook will be more bearish, with short-term support at the 20-week line, and the 26200 level must not be lost.</p>
<p>The Hong Kong stock market is expected to lack significant direction this week, and with limited trading days remaining this month, the short-term trading range for Hong Kong stocks is about 26000-27000, possibly waiting for clearer direction next month. Today is only a half-day session, and with the U.S. holiday tonight, it might be better to wrap things up early and prepare for tonight's reunion dinner. Wishing everyone a happy reunion, may the Year of the Horse in 2026 bring success, smooth sailing, good health, and may all your wishes come true.</p>
<p>Gu Tianhou</p>

MPNGY

BABX

513770

<p>On February 16, Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance, rebounding above the 27,000 mark on Monday and closing at 26,567 on Friday, with only an 8-point increase during the week. Northbound capital will pause until next Tuesday, recording a net inflow of HKD 20.2 billion before the holiday on Friday. Meituan's profit warning affected its stock price, which may drag down Alibaba and JD.com. The Hang Seng Index cannot afford to fall below the 26,200 level; if it fails to rise above 27,000, the market outlook will be relatively bearish. The short-term trading range for Hong Kong stocks is approximately 26,000-27,000, with only a half-day market today</p>

- On February 16, Hong Kong stocks exhibited volatile performance, closing the week with only an 8-point increase.  
- The market is expected to open slightly lower as Northbound capital pauses until next Tuesday, with investors likely to be cautious ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday.  
- Concerns over Meituan's prolonged path to profitability may pressure its stock and impact others like Alibaba and JD, with key support levels around 26200 to watch for potential declines.

Stheadline

Meituan

BABA 2x Long Daily ETF - GraniteShares

Hwabao CSI HK Equities Internet ETF

JD-SW

MEITUAN

JD.com

JD LOGISTICS

China Southern Hang Seng ETF

KraneShares 2x Long BABA Daily ETF

Yinhua MSCI China A ETF

ChinaAMC Hang Seng ETF

KraneShares 2x Long JD Daily ETF

Alibaba

ALI HEALTH

BABA-W

E Fund CSI HK Connect Internet ETF

JD HEALTH

Global X E-commerce ETF

Hang Seng Index

Krne Csi China Internet

The half-day market closes early during the Spring Festival holiday | Gu Tianhou