A tight correlation between mega-cap tech, software stocks and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) that fueled massive gains in 2024 and 2025 has now flipped into synchronized weakness, and one Wall Street technical analyst says the message is simple: it was always &#34;one trade.&#34;



In a client webinar hosted on Tuesday, 22V Research analyst John Roque laid out charts showing the Magnificent Seven, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (NYSE:IGV), and Bitcoin tracking one another closely over the past two years.



&#34;It seems to me that the message is fairly clear. It's all one trade,&#34; Roque said. 



&#34;It was all one trade in 2024 and 2025, and then as it rallied into the coincident peaks in the autumn of 2025, and they've all been weak since, but of course, Bitcoin and the IGV have been weaker.&#34;



The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF IGV recently traded near $80, well below its 40-week moving average around $106. 



Roque said the ETF's technical score is zero, with risk toward $60 if oversold conditions fail to spark a bounce.



Chart: Magnificent Seven (Blue Line), Software Stocks IGV (White) and Bitcoin (Orange) 



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<h2>Bitcoin's $60,000 Break: What's Next?</h2>



Bitcoin recently hit Roque's $60,000 downside target before stabilizing. But he's not convinced the floor will hold.



&#34;My target of 60,000 was hit on February 6th,&#34; Roque said. &#34;It would not surprise me, and I actually am guessing that this is going to break $60,000, and 40,000 would be the next target.&#34;



He frames the current setup in historical context. 



Since 2017, Bitcoin's major cyclical bottoms occurred when the asset traded 52%, 44% and 55% below its 200-day moving average. As of mid-February, Bitcoin was roughly 32% below that long-term trendline.



That gap suggests — at least by historical standards — that the drawdown may not yet be complete.



&#34;It can bounce, but I'm a seller,&#34; Roque said, adding that the Bitcoin chart resembles a textbook head-and-shoulders top.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img width="1024" height="572" src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17115157/image-357-1024x572.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-1313334" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/17115157/image-357-1024x572.png"/></figure>



<h2>How Deep Could A Bitcoin Bear Market Go?</h2>



Bitcoin has suffered five major bear markets since 2011, with drawdowns of 82%, 86%, 84%, 72% and 75%. The average decline was roughly 80%. The smallest drop was 72%.



Applying a 72% decline from the most recent peak implies a potential downside near $35,000. 



Roque is focused on $40,000 as a more practical level below $60,000 — but either way, the historical template suggests room for further weakness if the cycle plays out in similar fashion.



The bearish technical setup extends to Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR), formerly MicroStrategy, which has become a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin.



Roque's initial downside target for the stock was $100. It reached an intraday low of $104 before bouncing.



&#34;My initial downside target was 100,&#34; he said. &#34;I think this figure is going to prove optimistic. It would not surprise me if this got to 20.&#34;



He acknowledged that $20 may sound extreme, but said the stock's relative performance versus the S&amp;P 500 has turned sharply negative. 



The last time Strategy showed similar relative weakness, the stock ultimately suffered a 90% absolute decline.



According to the company, Strategy holds more than 717,000 Bitcoins at an average purchase price of $76,000, representing roughly $54.5 billion in total cost. 



At recent prices near $68,500, those holdings are worth just under $49 billion — implying an unrealized loss of approximately $5.5 billion.



If Bitcoin decisively breaks below $60,000 and trends toward $40,000, the pressure on Strategy's balance sheet — and equity valuation — could intensify quickly.



Photo: Shutterstock

MARA

A Wall Street analyst highlights a strong correlation between mega-cap tech, software stocks, and Bitcoin, which has shifted from gains in 2024-2025 to synchronized weakness. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is currently trading below its moving average, with a technical score of zero. Bitcoin recently hit a downside target of $60,000, but further declines to $40,000 are anticipated. The analyst also warns of potential significant losses for Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) due to its Bitcoin holdings, which could face pressure if Bitcoin's value continues to drop.

- A correlation between mega-cap tech stocks, software stocks, and Bitcoin has shifted from gains in 2024 and 2025 to synchronized weakness, highlighting a reliance on a singular trade.  
- Analyst John Roque indicates Bitcoin's recent drop to $60,000 may not hold, projecting a potential decline to $40,000 based on historical trends and technical analysis.  
- The bearish outlook also affects Strategy Inc., with Roque warning of a significant drop in stock value if Bitcoin continues to decline, potentially intensifying their unrealized losses.

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