On Wednesday, the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran drove oil prices sharply higher. With the U.S. military amassing the largest aerial force since the 2003 Iraq War, the market is facing not just a repeat of last year's 25-minute swift &#34;Midnight Hammer Operation,&#34; but a military action that could last for days or even weeks.
According to CCTV News, informed sources revealed that the U.S. military is prepared for a &#34;military strike against Iran as early as this weekend,&#34; but President Trump has not yet made a final decision. Sources indicated that the White House has been informed that following a significant troop increase in the Middle East in recent days, the military is ready to launch an attack this weekend. Xinhua News Agency reported on February 18 that there are currently no signs that diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will achieve a breakthrough, while increasing evidence suggests that U.S. military action is &#34;imminent.&#34;
WTI crude oil rose by 5% during the day on Wednesday, closing at $65.04 per barrel. Meanwhile, the market is assessing various scenarios for oil price impacts: from a potential $10-12 increase in oil prices due to a disruption of Iran's 1.6 million barrels per day exports, to a possible surge above $130 per barrel if the Persian Gulf's 18 million barrels per day exports are obstructed.
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White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on Wednesday that the U.S. and Iran are &#34;still far apart&#34; on certain issues. Vice President JD Vance previously noted that although there has been some progress in the Geneva negotiations, Iran has failed to meet the &#34;red lines&#34; set by Trump. Leavitt mentioned that Iran is expected to respond to U.S. concerns in the coming weeks, stating, &#34;Diplomacy is always his first choice, and it would be wise for Iran to reach an agreement with President Trump.&#34;
<h2>The U.S. has amassed the largest aerial force in the Middle East since 2003, and the operation may last for weeks</h2>
According to Xinhua News Agency, citing sources, the U.S. and Israel are likely to conduct joint operations, which will be much larger in scale than last June's &#34;12-Day War,&#34; posing a more &#34;existential threat&#34; to Iran and having far-reaching effects on the entire region. In June 2025, the White House set a two-week timeframe for Trump to decide whether to continue negotiations or launch airstrikes. Three days later, he initiated the &#34;Midnight Hammer Operation,&#34; which lasted only 25 minutes, targeting Iran's nuclear facilities.
Media reports indicate that the U.S. is deploying a large number of fighter jets and support aircraft to the Middle East, amassing the largest aerial force in the region since the 2003 Iraq War. In recent days, the U.S. has continued to mobilize advanced F-35 and F-22 fighter jets to the Middle East, and a second aircraft carrier carrying attack and electronic warfare aircraft is on its way
The command and control aircraft, crucial for large-scale aerial operations, are also being mobilized, and key air defense systems have been deployed in recent weeks.
According to U.S. officials, the new military operations could last from several days to weeks. Former Pentagon officials and Atlantic Council researcher Alex Plitsas stated that the scale of U.S. military forces currently gathering in the region is &#34;unprecedented,&#34; and such a level of military buildup has not been seen in decades.
&#34;The scale and combination of ground-based attack aircraft, command and control systems, and sea-based platforms we are assembling is unprecedented,&#34; Plitsas said. &#34;We haven't seen such a military buildup in this region in decades.&#34;
Media reports indicate that the deployment includes aircraft carrier strike groups, ground-based aircraft, aerial refueling tankers, and command and control assets, allowing Trump to choose to launch sustained aerial and naval operations without committing U.S. ground troops. Sources cited by the media stated that if operations occur, &#34;it will be sustained actions over weeks.&#34;
Targets may cover multiple levels—from precision strikes against weapon facilities and mid-level officials to potential &#34;decapitation strikes&#34; aimed at overthrowing the existing regime. The primary goal is to destroy Iran's missiles, launchers, drones, and drone factories to prevent retaliatory strikes against U.S. forces and Israel.
<h2>Two-Week Time Window Reappears</h2>
The timeline is closely related to military deployments. The second aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford, is en route to the region. Leavitt stated on Wednesday that Iran is expected to provide more details to the U.S. in the &#34;coming weeks.&#34; Military experts predict that the USS Gerald R. Ford will also take about two weeks to arrive in the region.
&#34;If you look at their response to the vice president's comments and the timeline of military buildup, it tells us that if the president chooses to order it, we could launch large-scale operations at any time,&#34; a source familiar with White House discussions told the media.
However, differing priorities complicate negotiations. Plitsas pointed out that Washington's main concern is Iran's nuclear program; for Israel, the urgent threat is Tehran's growing ballistic missile stockpile, which is currently increasing at a rate of about 300 missiles per month and may soon exceed defensive interception capabilities; regional partners are focused on Iran-supported proxy organizations.
&#34;Even if the U.S. reaches an excellent nuclear agreement, if it doesn't extend to ballistic missiles, it doesn't mean Israel will be satisfied,&#34; the source told the media. &#34;If it doesn't include proxy organizations, other regional partners may also not be satisfied.&#34; This means that negotiations limited to nuclear issues could actually increase the likelihood of conflict.
<h2>Four Scenarios of Oil Price Disruption</h2>
According to energy analysis, the market is assessing four main scenarios of supply disruption.
Scenario One: The U.S. or Israel block Iran's oil exports. This could disrupt Iran's oil exports by up to 1.6 million barrels per day. Since oil is a globally interchangeable commodity, this could push global oil prices up by at least $10-12. This scenario is reversible, meaning the blockade could be lifted at any time, and export volumes could rebound thereafter
Scenario 2: Iran disrupts oil transportation in the Arabian Gulf. Iran may use fast attack boats, drones, anti-ship missiles, or mines against export flows passing through the Strait of Hormuz (which has a shipping lane width of only 2 miles). Up to 18 million barrels per day of non-Iranian crude oil and refined products could be affected. This scenario could disrupt millions of barrels per day of supply within weeks until allied naval forces neutralize the threat. Crude oil prices could rise above $90 per barrel, pushing U.S. retail gasoline prices well above the national average of $3 per gallon.
Scenario 3: The U.S. or Israel directly attacks Iranian oil facilities. Strikes may target Kharg Island (which accounts for nearly all of Iran's 1.6 million barrels per day of exports) and its supply lines, offshore production platforms. Not only is Iranian crude oil export at risk, but an additional 1.5 million barrels per day of domestic production and domestic fuel supply could also be affected. The price impact could exceed the $10-12 increase in Scenario 1, as infrastructure damage may have a long-term effect on supply, and market concerns about further escalation could arise. Oil prices could surpass $100 per barrel.
Scenario 4: Iran directly attacks oil facilities in the Arabian Gulf. This could target production oil fields, gathering and processing nodes, or export terminals. A significant portion of the 18 million barrels per day of non-Iranian exports could be affected, depending on which assets go offline and for how long. This could lead to historic oil price surges, potentially exceeding the $130 per barrel reached after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.
For example, Iraq's entire 3.5 million barrels per day of Gulf exports rely on offshore loading facilities very close to Iranian territorial waters. Repairing these offshore loading points takes a long time—last November, Ukraine's strike on similar platforms at the Black Sea's maritime pipeline terminal led to a loss of 500,000 barrels per day of capacity (one-third of the terminal's output) for several months.
Additionally, Qatar's daily liquefied natural gas exports of over 10 billion cubic feet could also be interrupted due to mines, direct attacks on gas transport vessels, or the paralysis of the Ras Laffan port export terminal, which could drive up electricity prices as far as the United States.
<h2>Market Skepticism Remains</h2>
Despite the unprecedented scale of military mobilization, some market participants are skeptical that Trump will actually take military action.
&#34;I am a skeptic and still do not believe that Trump would risk raising domestic oil prices in an election year where affordability is a key agenda,&#34; said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank

The situation between the U.S. and Iran has escalated rapidly, with the U.S. military amassing the largest aerial force since the 2003 Iraq War. Unlike last year's 25-minute conflict, this potential operation may last for weeks, directly targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and missile depots. The market is assessing the risk of supply disruptions, with extreme scenarios potentially pushing oil prices above $130. Despite the escalation of military deterrence, concerns about inflation risks in an election year have led some investors to remain skeptical about whether the U.S. will ultimately take military action

- The recent escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions has caused a significant increase in oil prices, with WTI crude rising 5% to $65.04 per barrel.  
- The U.S. military has mobilized its largest air force since the 2003 Iraq War, preparing for potential military action against Iran, which could occur as early as this weekend.  
- Analysts are considering various scenarios that could disrupt oil supplies, leading to price increases ranging from $10-$12 to potentially over $130 per barrel, depending on the extent of military actions and regional responses.

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Is this time different? The US military "will strike Iran as early as this weekend," how will oil prices react?