On February 23, there was brief sunshine, with a light rain in the evening. Although the U.S. economy significantly slowed down in the fourth quarter of last year, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected President Trump's global tariff policy, leading to fluctuations upward in U.S. stocks on Friday. The Dow opened down 72 points but quickly rebounded after the ruling was announced, rising as much as 317 points, closing at 49,625, up 230 points or 0.47%; the S&amp;P 500 rose 47 points or 0.69%, closing at 6,909; the Nasdaq rose 203 points or 0.9%, closing at 22,886.
U.S. economists estimate that the Supreme Court ruling will trigger a refund of $175 billion in tariffs, but companies applying for refunds may face a lengthy process due to difficulties in collecting import data, and ultimately may have to sell the refund rights to third parties. The U.S. dollar fluctuated down 0.17% to 97.76, while the yen fell 0.01% to 154.98 per dollar. With tensions in the Middle East, spot gold prices stabilized at $5,000, further rising to $5,150 during the Asian session this morning. As for oil prices, they showed mixed performance, with New York crude oil slightly up 0.09% at $66.49. Brent crude oil initially rose before retreating, having surged to a six-month high of $72.34 per barrel, then falling 0.1% to close at $71.76.
Last week, Hong Kong stocks had only one and a half trading days. On the eve of the Lunar New Year, the Hang Seng Index rose 138 points, but on Friday it opened lower and continued to decline, falling 292 points to close at 26,413, down 154 points or 0.57% for the week, mainly due to market concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East, with the U.S. military potentially launching an attack on Iran, making war between the U.S. and Iran imminent. However, after the weekend, the U.S. military has not officially attacked Iran, and it is estimated that the U.S. has deployed a fleet of warships in the waters off Iran to pressure Iran to make greater concessions in negotiations. Last Friday, the White House announced that Trump would visit China from March 31 to April 2. Although the news has not yet been confirmed by Beijing, the night futures rose over 400 points, closing high at 26,855; this morning, black futures hovered around the 26,700-26,800 level, indicating that Hong Kong stocks are likely to open higher this morning.
On the other hand, the U.S. Supreme Court historically overturned the equivalent tariff policy last Friday, and President Trump immediately invoked another law to impose global tariffs. Although Trump could no longer use the International Economic Emergency Powers Act to &#34;slash prices and refund,&#34; the tariff war landscape has not actually changed and has become the new normal. The risks associated with &#34;special tariffs&#34; have already been digested, while there has been no ruling on refunds, which may take a year or even longer to obtain, and before refunds are finalized, the U.S. government has already found new ways to continue generating tariff revenue. Currently, it appears that the tariff turmoil has not had a significant impact on the stock market. After more than a year of Trump's re-election, the market has reached a consensus that tariffs from multiple countries are around 15%, which is within an acceptable range and also helps reduce the U.S. fiscal deficit.
<h2>Short-term resistance for the Hang Seng Index at 27,500</h2>
Regarding the U.S. attack on Iran, the market generally believes that the military movements are mainly a negotiation strategy. Currently, the market remains relatively optimistic about the stock market trend in the first half of the year. The main reason is that the monetary policy is leaning towards easing, with interest rate futures reflecting a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve twice this year, and a 20% chance of a total of three cuts amounting to 0.75%. At the same time, China is also expected to further cut interest rates and reserve requirements. Additionally, the National People's Congress in early next month may announce more long-term policies. Global funds continue to decrease their allocation to U.S. dollar assets, which may benefit the Hong Kong and China stock markets.
Although the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has largely recovered last year, referencing past monetary easing cycles, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Index can rise to two standard deviations above the average, corresponding to about 30,000 for the Hang Seng Index. Overall, the trend for Hong Kong stocks this year remains optimistic. In the short term, the Hang Seng Index still needs to break through, with support around 26,300-26,400 and resistance above at 27,400-27,500.
Goddess of Ancient Times

NDAQ

03037

On February 23, Hong Kong stocks are expected to fluctuate before the futures settlement. Despite the slowdown in the U.S. economy, the Supreme Court's rejection of Trump's global tariff policy has driven a rebound in U.S. stocks. Last Friday, Hong Kong stocks opened lower and continued to decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 292 points to close at 26,413 points, down 154 points for the week. The market is concerned about the tense situation in the Middle East, but the U.S. military has not yet taken action against Iran. Trump plans to visit China from March 31 to April 2, although this news has not been confirmed, but the night futures have surged over 400 points, and it is expected that Hong Kong stocks will open higher this morning

- The U.S. stock market rebounded after the Supreme Court overturned Trump's global tariff policy, with the Dow Jones gaining 230 points.  
- U.S. economists estimate that this ruling could trigger refunds of $175 billion in tariffs, but the process may be lengthy for companies.  
- The market remains optimistic for the first half of the year due to anticipated monetary easing and potential policy announcements from China.

Stheadline

Nasdaq

CSOP HSI ETF

Guggenheim DJIA Ave Div

China Southern Hang Seng ETF

Hang Seng Index

Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF

SPDR S&P 500

S&P 500

Proshares UltraPro QQQ

Pro UltrPro Dow30

NASDAQ Composite Index

ProShares Ultra Dow30 ETF

ChinaAMC Hang Seng ETF

SPDR Djia

TRACKER FUND

Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF

Before futures settlement, Hong Kong stocks are expected to fluctuate｜Gu Tianhou