<div id="readability-page-1">May Chan is looking for a home that she can call her own. The freelancer wants to buy a flat, but high mortgage rates as well as uncertainty in the property market kept her from taking the plunge. “I would like to buy a flat, if I can afford it,” she said. “It would certainly help if there are discounts.” Now that mortgage rates have stabilised and there is less uncertainty about property prices, she hopes to find a reasonably priced home. With Hong Kong’s residential property market stabilising further and the number of unsold units dwindling, developers are likely to wind down generous discounts for new projects, prolonging Chan’s wait for an affordable home. Deep discounts that were common until recently were likely over, according to analysts. The estimates for new home supply vary, but the trend is clear: the peak has passed and with it discounts of as much as 30 per cent seen in the last two to three years.   “While overall housing supply remains at high levels currently, the declining pipeline from 2026 onwards suggests that peak supply has likely passed,” said Keith Chan, economist for research and consultancy for Greater China at Knight Frank. “Combined with a recent pickup in transaction activity, inventory pressure is beginning to ease.” He expected the supply of new homes this year to decline 10.5 per cent to 18,700 units from last year’s level of 20,900 units, with developers likely to release 18,800 units on the market. Rival consultancy Savills estimated that new launches this year would range from 16,000 to 18,000 units, noting that in the past few years new-home sales typically amounted to 20,000 units annually. The declining number of new launches was likely to continue until 2029, said Jack Tong, director for research and consultancy at Savills. “From 2027 onwards new completions will trend downwards from 16,500 to 14,500 in 2029, with new supply averaging 16,500 per annum from 2026 to 2029, lower than the average of 18,400 per annum from 2017 to 2025,” Tong said. New home sales in 2025 reached a post-pandemic high of 20,540 units, while in January, about 2,300 units were sold, a month-on-month increase of 80 per cent, suggesting that peak supply pressure was receding. Tong said that this year big developers like Sun Hung Kai Properties (SHKP) and K. Wah International Holdings had sold out their new launches despite raising prices. In early January, SHKP sold all 213 units in the first batch of Sierra Sea phase 2A in Sai Sha on launch day despite a 5 per cent price increase. With the second batch of 229 units also selling out in a day, the developer again raised the prices of 218 flats for the third round by another 5 per cent. Despite the increase, all flats in the third round were sold out on the day of the launch. Meanwhile, K. Wah’s Kabitat in Tin Hau sold all 60 units in a day late last month despite its average price exceeding HK$26,000 (US$3,327) per square foot, a 7 per cent increase in the final adjusted average price in September, Savills’ Tong said. Some units even saw price increases of about 13 per cent, while the developer reduced the maximum discount to 18 per cent from 30 per cent, he said. “Major developers with strong financials and lower debt, such as Henderson Land Development and Sino Group, have already reduced discounts by 1.5 per cent to 5 per cent for recent launches in Yuen Long and To Kwa Wan, effectively testing price resilience,” Tong added. Meanwhile, Ricacorp Properties expected 95 new project launches this year, with 29,836 units potentially available for buyers. This would be around 18 per cent lower than the estimated 36,181 units launched last year, the first time in 14 years that potential supply had fallen below 30,000 units, according to Derek Chan Hoi-chiu, head of research at the property agency. Given the improved sentiment, Ricacorp’s Chan said developers were likely to launch new projects with a “more targeted approach”, which would help keep prices stable. “The number of registered transactions for new private residential properties in 2026 will increase by another 10 per cent compared with last year, reaching around 22,000, a 22-year high,” Chan said. “The registered value is expected to increase by about 15 per cent to around HK$256 billion, which would be a record high.”  For JLL, the paucity of government land transactions and land premium applications from 2022 to 2024 meant that the supply of new homes had peaked in 2025, with the agency expecting around 28,000 to 30,000 units to be completed this year. “Developers’ focus will change from clearing stock with the help of attractive pricing to managing margin and pace,” said Norry Lee, senior director of projects strategy and consultancy at JLL. As a result, discounts this year would be more of a standard pricing tactic rather than a fire-sale signal. However, developers’ strategies could vary depending on their financial situation, with some in a better position to implement price increases, he added. “Large developers with strong balance sheets are likely to reduce aggressive, across-the-board discounts,” Lee said. “Deep discounting, such as prices that are 20 per cent below market price, is likely over.” This could well mean homebuyer Chan’s chances of buying a keenly priced home are quickly slipping from her grasp.</div>

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<p>Hong Kong's property market is stabilizing, leading to a reduction in discounts for homebuyers. Analysts predict that the peak supply of new homes has passed, with a decline in new launches expected until 2029. Major developers are selling units despite price increases, indicating strong demand. The number of new project launches is projected to fall to around 95 this year, marking a significant decrease in potential supply. Improved market sentiment may lead to more targeted project launches, helping to stabilize prices and increase transaction volumes in the coming years.</p>

Hong Kong homebuyers face dwindling discounts as property market stabilises