<div id="readability-page-1"><div><div><h2>Introduction</h2><p><span>At the beginning of 2026, the US economy presented a complex and contradictory picture. On the one hand, official data showed strong economic growth, with the annualized growth rate of real GDP reaching 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025 and projected at 3.0% in the fourth quarter, far exceeding the historical average. On the other hand, public perception of the economy was generally negative, with surveys showing that most people believed the economy was weak. This disconnect stemmed from multiple factors, including massive national debt, high consumer debt, lagging income growth, and widening wealth inequality. Meanwhile, gold prices broke through the $5,000/ounce mark, reaching $5,035/ounce as of February 20, 2026, symbolizing investors' distrust of the traditional monetary system.</span></p><p> The U.S. national debt has climbed to $38.43 trillion (January 2026 data), an increase of $2.25 trillion from a year ago, averaging $8.03 billion per day. This level is equivalent to more than 120% of GDP, a record high. The debt increase stems not only from post-pandemic stimulus measures but also from the new round of fiscal expansion by the Trump administration. Consumer debt is also at a record high, with total household debt reaching $18.8 trillion, including $1.28 trillion in credit card debt, $1.67 trillion in auto loans, and $1.66 trillion in student loans. These figures reflect the fragility behind the apparent economic prosperity: growth relies on borrowing and consumption, rather than organic income growth. The gap between economic data and public perception stems from limitations in statistical methods. GDP primarily measures spending but ignores income distribution and sustainability. In 2025, the annualized growth rate of real disposable income in the United States is projected to be -1%, while GDP growth is expected to exceed 3.5%. This divergence suggests that economic growth is being &#34;glossed over&#34; by a few factors, such as declining imports (due to the trade war) and wealthy consumer spending (benefiting from stock market gains). While the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.3% (January 2026), job growth has slowed, with total working hours remaining stagnant for the past three quarters, indicating a standstill in labor input. Against this backdrop, the attractiveness of gold as a &#34;hard asset&#34; is highlighted. Gold prices have risen 71.74% (compared to the same period last year), influenced not only by geopolitical tensions (such as the US-Iran conflict) and Federal Reserve policies, but also by investor expectations of a weaker dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently hovering in the 94-97 range and is projected to fall to 92-98 by 2026. On the policy front, the Trump administration's push for interest rate cuts and stimulus measures challenges the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially further distorting the market. The rapid accumulation of U.S. national debt has become a hidden economic concern. In January 2026, the total debt reached $38.43 trillion, an increase of $10.73 trillion from five years ago. Data from the Joint Economic Committee of Congress shows that the annual debt growth rate is equivalent to $8.03 billion per day, or $92,912 per second. If the current growth rate continues, it will exceed $39 trillion by April 2026. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the federal deficit will reach $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026, and the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 120%. The main drivers of debt growth include: first, the Trump administration's trade war and tariff policies, leading to reduced fiscal revenue; second, the lingering effects of the pandemic, stimulating spending; and third, a new round of tax reform and infrastructure investment. After Trump took office, he pushed through a &#34;beautiful package of legislation,&#34; including tax cuts, deregulation, and the redistribution of tariff revenue. These measures stimulated growth in the short term but exacerbated the deficit. The CBO estimates that interest payments will reach $1 trillion in 2026, equivalent to a significant portion of the federal budget, squeezing spending in areas such as education and healthcare. Consumer debt is also a concern. The New York Fed's fourth-quarter 2025 report shows that total household debt has increased to $18.8 trillion, an increase of $191 billion from the previous quarter and an annualized increase of $740 billion. Credit card debt rose to $1.28 trillion, an increase of $44 billion; auto loans reached $1.67 trillion, an increase of $12 billion; and student loans reached $1.66 trillion, an increase of $11 billion. These debt levels have exceeded the pre-pandemic level of $4.6 trillion, reflecting the reliance of low- and middle-income groups on borrowing to maintain their livelihoods. Delinquency rates are rising: the serious delinquency rate for credit cards reached 16.2%, and the student loan delinquency rate was 9.6%. Although the overall situation is sluggish, mortgage delinquencies are accelerating in low-income areas. Analysis and Commentary: High debt is not simply a fiscal problem, but a systemic risk. Keynesian theory suggests that debt can stimulate growth, but the current debt-to-GDP ratio is too high, approaching World War II levels, and may trigger inflation or a credit crisis. The Mundell-Fleming model shows that under a floating exchange rate, high debt may lead to a depreciation of the dollar, pushing up import costs and further exacerbating inflation. In contrast, Japan has a higher debt ratio (260% of GDP), but a high domestic holding ratio (90% domestic). Foreign holdings of US debt reach 30%, making it vulnerable to international capital flows. If China and other countries reduce their holdings of US Treasury bonds, interest rates will surge. Investors should be wary of the debt ceiling debate, which could trigger market volatility. The Discrepancy Between GDP Growth and Reality: US GDP data appears strong, but a closer look reveals weaknesses. The annualized GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2025 is 4.4%, higher than the initial estimate of 4.3%, thanks to consumption, exports, and government spending. Consumer spending contributes the most, accounting for 70% of GDP, but relies on the wealth effect of the stock market: stock market returns are expected to exceed 20% in 2025, with strong consumption by the wealthy. Declining imports (due to the trade war) also artificially inflated GDP, as the GDP formula is consumption + investment + government spending + exports - imports. However, underlying indicators are weak. Total working hours have remained stagnant for the past three quarters, with employment growth flat as a pancake. Non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January 2026, exceeding the expected 55,000, although the previous month's figure was revised downwards. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, but the U6 unemployment rate (including part-time and disheartened workers) reached 8%, indicating underutilization of the labor force. Real disposable income is projected to decline by 1% annualized from April 2025, a stark contrast to the 3.5% GDP growth. Inventory changes and trade factors distort the data. Inventory declines dragged down growth in the third quarter of 2025, but are expected to remain flat in the fourth quarter, contributing positively. Exports saw moderate growth, while imports rose slightly, resulting in limited net contribution. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecasts 3.0% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, with consumption slowing to 2.5% (up from 3.5% in the previous quarter) and investment remaining weak. Analysis and Commentary: The limitations of GDP as a single indicator are becoming increasingly apparent. Traditional Keynesian models emphasize spending-driven growth but neglect the income side. The current &#34;K-shaped&#34; recovery relies on consumption by the wealthy and policy stimulus, which is unsustainable. Harvard economist Mankiw points out that under high debt, GDP growth may become &#34;hollowed out,&#34; meaning short-term prosperity is exchanged for long-term recession. Compared to the EU (1.5% growth in 2025), US data is impressive, but if imports and inventory effects are excluded, economic growth over the past three quarters was zero. Investors should pay attention to leading indicators, such as weekly jobless claims (which recently fell to 206,000), suggesting a stable labor market, but exports will be pressured if the trade war escalates. The economic recovery exhibits a &#34;K-shaped&#34; pattern: the upper class benefits while the lower class struggles. The top 10% have reaped substantial stock market gains, and the personal savings rate has fallen from 5% in April 2025 to 3.5%, supporting consumption. The stock market (S&amp;P 500) has returned over 20% for three consecutive years, with AI and data center investment growing by 15%, while traditional industry investment has declined by 4%. The lower classes face pressure. Consumer debt is at record highs, with delinquency rates rising. The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) program has expanded to include rent payments, indicating a high cost of living. Housing affordability is at a record low, with mortgage delinquencies accelerating in low-income areas. Surveys show that most people feel the economy is weak because wage growth is lagging behind inflation. Real wage growth in 2025 is projected to be only 1%, far below the rising cost of living. Employment polarization is widening. Employment is strong in technology and healthcare, but lackluster in other sectors. Unemployment rates for women and minorities are above average. A New York Fed report shows that non-housing debt delinquency rates are stable, but overall credit problems have risen slightly. Analysis and Commentary: A K-shaped economy amplifies social inequality and could trigger political instability. Piketty's theory posits that a rate of return on capital exceeding the rate of economic growth leads to wealth concentration. Currently, AI investment is absorbing new growth while traditional industries are declining, resembling the polarization seen during the 19th-century Industrial Revolution. Policy stimulus (such as a $150 billion tax rebate) will boost GDP by 0.3% in the short term, but this is not permanent and will only last 2-3 months. Ignoring this polarization may underestimate the risk of recession. Compared to China (5.2% growth projected in 2025), US growth is more reliant on consumption and is more vulnerable to confidence shocks. Trump's Policies: Stimulus and Risks Coexist. The Trump administration's economic stimulus aims to &#34;buy the midterm elections.&#34; Measures include tax cuts, deregulation, foreign investment inflows, and tariff checks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant stated that the &#34;pipeline laying&#34; program, scheduled for 2025, will take effect in 2026, with expected tax rebates of $150 billion to stimulate consumption. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphasized that factory construction and tariff revenue will drive growth. However, uncertainty has frozen business investment. The trade war has led to a decline in imports but has also increased costs. A 43-day government shutdown (until 2025) drags down fourth-quarter growth. High risks associated with the midterm elections, declining Trump approval ratings (among independent voters), and the possibility of Democrats controlling the House of Representatives could leave the president a &#34;lame duck.&#34; Analysis and Commentary: Trump's policies offer short-term benefits but carry significant long-term risks. Supply-side economics supports tax cuts to stimulate investment, but given the current high debt levels, this could exacerbate the deficit. The Mundell-Fleming trilemma demonstrates that under free capital flows, independent monetary policy and a fixed exchange rate are mutually exclusive. Tariffs could trigger retaliation, weakening exports. Historical experience (such as the Reagan era) shows that tax cuts initially increase growth, but leave behind debt legacies. Ignoring the midterm election risks may underestimate policy paralysis. </p><h2><span><span>Federal Reserve Policy: Independence Test and Rate Cut Prospects</span></span></h2><p><span><span>The Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% in January 2026, but there are significant internal divisions. Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in May, and the selection of a new chairman (such as Kevin Warsh) will be influenced by Trump. Bessant is leading a search that criticizes the Fed for having too much power and hints at tightening. </span></span></p><p><span><span>History shows that the Fed has never been truly independent. Founded in 1913 to stabilize banks, it has often been subject to political pressure. During World War II, it supported debt financing.</span></span></p><p> The balance sheet grew from $4.5 trillion to $9 trillion after the pandemic, and is currently at $6 trillion. Trump was dissatisfied with Powell's policies after appointing him, and the new chairman in 2026 may push for aggressive interest rate cuts. The Fed meeting minutes show that some officials supported further interest rate cuts if inflation met expectations. The market expects 1-2 rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026. Powell stated that policy is decided &#34;meeting by meeting.&#34; Analysis and commentary: The weakening of the Fed's independence may distort the market. Hamiltonian theory holds that central banks should be independent of fiscal policy, but under current debt pressure, the Fed has become a &#34;debt buyer.&#34; Compared to history (such as the gold standard in 1900), the current lack of a hard anchor makes it prone to distortions. Interest rate cuts could fuel inflation, erode real income, and contradict Trump's affordability campaign. Investors should pay attention to the March meeting; a 25 basis point cut could occur if there is bad employment data. The US Dollar Outlook: Depreciation Trend and Commodity Impacts. The US Dollar Index is projected to fall to 92-98 by 2026, 5-10% lower than the current 94-97. Driving factors include interest rate cuts, debt growth, and trade uncertainty. Morgan Stanley predicts a drop to 94 in the second quarter, followed by a rebound to 100 by the end of the year. Cambridge Currency Index expects an average of 94-96, with a low of 92. Depreciation benefits commodities. Gold prices have exceeded $5,000, with a forecast of $6,000 by the end of the year. Silver is at $180, and platinum at $3,400. Hard assets are bridging the gap between currency costs and asset values. Analysis and Commentary: The dollar's depreciation is structural. After Bretton Woods, the dollar's hegemony relied on oil and its reserve status, but debt eroded confidence. The Mundell model shows that loose monetary policy leads to capital outflows. History (such as the stagflation of the 1970s) shows that a weak dollar pushes up commodity prices. Trump's weak dollar policy benefits exports but exacerbates inflation. The dollar often appreciates during crises (100% correlation over the past 25 years), but currently, without a major crisis, the probability of depreciation is high. Gold Prices and Hard Assets: The Logic and Outlook for Price Increases</p><p><span><span>Gold prices break through $5000, driven by debt, inflation, and geopolitical risks. Platinum will outperform the S&amp;P 500 by 20 times in 2025. &#34;Buy on dips&#34; for hard assets amid currency distortions.</span></span></p><p><span><span>Predicted $6000 for gold, $180 for silver, and $3400 for platinum in 2026. The stock market is rising but lagging behind hard assets.</span></span></p><p><span><span>Forecasted $6000 for gold, $180 for silver, and $3400 for platinum in 2026.</span></span></p></div></div></div>

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<p>The US economy in early 2026 shows strong GDP growth at 4.4% but faces public skepticism due to high national and consumer debt, which reached $38.43 trillion and $18.8 trillion respectively. Gold prices surged to $5,035/ounce, reflecting investor distrust. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to exceed 120%, with a federal deficit of $1.9 trillion anticipated. Economic growth is driven by borrowing rather than income growth, with rising delinquency rates in consumer debt. The Trump administration's policies contribute to these economic challenges, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.</p>

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US Economic Outlook: 2026 – A Year of Intertwined Debt, Gold Prices, and Policy