How much savings: available for "moving"?

Key Points In 2023, the market is hotly discussing the 16 trillion yuan "excess savings" peak. Based on a three-year period, this batch of funds locked in at over 3% interest will face interest rates of 1.2%-1.5% in 2026. In the face of rapidly declining interest rates, the market is observing: will this trigger the flow of maturing deposits to other assets, thereby pushing up the prices of other assets? Scale estimation: indeed large, but not a "surge." The scale of maturing fixed deposits for residents in China in 2026 is approximately 76-77 trillion yuan, reaching a historical peak in absolute terms. The rhythm shows significant seasonality, with the maturing scale in the first quarter possibly reaching 32-34 trillion yuan, forming the characteristic of "hitting a peak in the first quarter." However, from a year-on-year perspective, the maturity pressure is limited. The total maturity scale for the entire year of 2025 is about 66.5 trillion yuan, with an increase of 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan year-on-year in 2026, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the year-on-year growth rate of maturing deposits in 2025 (17.7%). Essentially, the maturity peak in 2025 and 2026 is a mirrored response to the "high deposit growth" of 2022-2023 and does not possess suddenness. Pressure breakdown: about 25 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits. Among the total maturity amount of 76 trillion yuan, the deposits that truly belong to a term of two years or more, enjoying historically high interest rates, amount to about 24.8 trillion yuan, accounting for about 32%. This is the core of the renewal pressure. The remaining nearly 70% are deposits of one year or less, where the changes in renewal interest rates are not significant. However, on a month-on-month basis, there are also 20.3 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits maturing in 2025, with only an increase of 4.6 trillion yuan year-on-year in 2026. This may imply that the repricing pressure in 2026 is "marginally" heavier rather than surging. Experience from 2025: deposit renewals still show resilience. In fact, deposits in 2025 already faced pressure from the gap in renewal interest rates, serving as a precursor observation window for 2026. The stress test in 2025 provided a restrained answer: even with declining interest rates, the renewal rate after fixed deposits mature remains close to 90%, roughly comparable to 2023. This may indicate that low interest rates do not automatically trigger a leap in risk appetite, and residents' asset allocation still shows strong defensiveness and inertia. The core contradiction in 2026 also shifts from "whether to move" to "where to flow." Overall, this round of resident deposit migration that began around 2023 has not accelerated due to the concentrated repricing pressure in 2025. It is expected that 2025 and 2026 will more likely be a continuation of previous structural adjustments: although the constraints of interest rate repricing have significantly increased, the migration of deposits to other assets will still unfold slowly and in a dispersed manner. However, as the volume increases, with about 77 trillion yuan of fixed deposits maturing, even assuming a stable outflow rate of 10%, it will be sufficient to become a marginal pricing variable in the stock and bond markets. The reallocation trend of approximately 32 trillion yuan of maturing deposits in the first quarter is the core observation window Risk Warning: Risks of data estimation and assumption deviation; risk asset volatility exceeding expectations. In 2025, we launched two research reports on household wealth allocation to indicate that, against the backdrop of long-term interest rates declining faster than short-term rates, the reallocation of household wealth is not a temporary phenomenon but is more likely to become a continuous process. We pointed out that this round of deposit migration did not just begin but has gradually unfolded since 2023; at the same time, its inherent logic does not point to a systematic increase in residents' risk preferences, but rather reflects a structural shift among residents between deposits and low-risk products that are "deposit-like" under the price comparison effect. The facts show that since 2025, the migration of household deposits to other low-risk financial assets has marginally had observable effects on the market. So far, the market narrative around deposit migration has not cooled with the passage of time; instead, it has continued to ferment. Discussions surrounding deposit maturities, renewals, and reallocation directions are heating up, and related issues are gradually evolving into important clues that affect market expectations. Based on this, we continue the previous research framework and advance this series of reports as important clues for understanding assets and markets. Why focus on maturing deposits in 2026? Currently, the market's discussions around the maturity of household time deposits in 2026 and deposit migration are intensifying, with most viewpoints considering it one of the core narratives that will subsequently affect market liquidity and asset allocation. So at this point, why has the market's attention to the issue of 2026 deposit maturities significantly increased? The year 2023 was a year when the logic of "excess savings" was hotly debated, and as the endpoint of a three-year period, 2026 has become the focus for observing reallocation behaviors after deposit maturities. On one hand, during the pandemic, residents indeed saved more and spent less, leading to some "excess savings"; on the other hand, with the decline in returns and the rise in risks of underlying assets such as real estate and infrastructure, there has been a phase return of household wealth structure to deposits. In 2022 and 2023, household deposits surged by 17.8 trillion yuan and 16.6 trillion yuan, respectively, while the average in previous years was only around 10 trillion yuan. Especially in 2023, new household time deposits reached a historical peak of 16 trillion yuan. The three-year maturity point of these medium- and long-term deposits has reinforced the market's focus on the reallocation of household deposits maturing in 2026. The expectation of interest rate declines after the maturity of high-interest funds has also heightened the market's attention to deposit migration. The funds maturing in 2026 are the last batch of long-term funds enjoying "3% range" interest rates—at that time, the interest rates on three-year large time deposits from major banks generally exceeded 3%. If these funds face new interest rates of 1.2%-1.5% upon maturity, will residents therefore "retaliate by not saving"? Meanwhile, the wealth management, fund, and insurance industries, after several years of sluggishness, also need a grand narrative of "funds returning" to support expansion expectations, making 2026 a natural narrative time anchor. How Much Time Deposits Will Expire? In this context, a core question is: how much time deposits will face expiration in 2026? According to our team's calculations, the total amount of household time deposits maturing throughout the year may reach around 76-77 trillion yuan. Our estimation is primarily based on a deep penetration of the financial reports of bond-issuing banks, utilizing their uniformly disclosed structure of remaining terms for time deposits for detailed calculations (the sample banks' time deposit scale accounts for about 80% of the entire market). Historical data shows that the evolution path of the proportion of deposits maturing in various time periods is relatively stable, and in the past two years, the proportion of deposits maturing "within one year" has shown a slight upward trend. Combining the proportion data from the 2024 sample annual report (60%) and the 2025 interim report (62.9%), we estimate that by the end of 2025, the proportion of time deposits maturing within one year will further increase to a range of 62.5%-63.5%. If we assume that the term structure of time deposits is highly isomorphic across the entire industry, sample banks, and households, based on the total time deposit stock of 179.6 trillion yuan at the end of 2025, it is estimated that approximately 112 trillion-114 trillion yuan of time deposits will face repricing in 2026; among them, the maturing scale of household time deposits is expected to be around 76 trillion-77 trillion yuan. In absolute terms, 2026 is indeed at a historical peak. The concentration of the rhythm is noteworthy, as the first quarter of 2026 may be the peak period for expirations throughout the year. The expiration distribution of bank deposits has strong seasonality, corresponding to the peak absorption season at the beginning of the year—typically, the first quarter's increment accounts for 50%-70% of the entire year, and the expiration volume also shows a "high in the front and low in the back" characteristic. Referring to the 2024 annual report, deposits maturing within 3 months account for about 42.8% of the total amount maturing within one year. Considering that the deposit issuance in 2025 is relatively more front-loaded, we assume that the proportion of deposits maturing within 3 months at the end of 2025 may rise to 43%-44.5%. Based on this calculation, the scale of maturing household deposits in the first quarter of 2026 will reach 32.7-34.4 trillion yuan, forming a characteristic of "high peak in the first quarter." However, if we shift our perspective to year-on-year changes, the uniqueness of 2026 may be weaker than market intuition. Similarly, referring to the sample bank annual reports for 2024, the scale of resident time deposits maturing in 2025 is approximately CNY 66.5 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of about CNY 9.6-10.8 trillion in 2026, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.5%-16.3%, which is actually lower than the year-on-year growth rate of maturing deposits in 2025 (approximately 17.7%). Even focusing on the first quarter, which is of most concern to the market, the scale of resident maturities in the first quarter of 2025 is about CNY 28.5 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of about CNY 4.2–5.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2026. Although the growth rate is in a historically high range, it still aligns with historical operating patterns. Essentially, the increase in maturing amounts in 2025-2026 is merely a mirrored response to the surge in deposits in 2022-2023. "Excess savings" naturally transforms into "excess maturities" three years later. In this sense, 2026 resembles a slowly rising "tide" rather than a sudden "tsunami." What truly draws market attention is not the scale of maturities itself, but the interest rate gap faced when renewing deposits after maturity. The current round of deposit rate declines began in 2022 and stabilized in phases after May 2025, but the interest rate gaps faced by different term deposits during renewal are not consistent. For one-year and shorter deposits maturing in 2026, the difference between new and old rates during renewal is limited; the main focus is on two-year and longer deposits, where the previous rate cuts will be more pronounced during renewal. Taking the standard deposits of large state-owned banks as an example, the two-year fixed deposits absorbed in 2024 will generally see a rate decline of 50–60 basis points upon renewal in 2026; the three-year fixed deposits from 2023 will experience a rate drop of about 135 basis points upon renewal. Additionally, banks have generally compressed long-term deposit products, with the six major banks having removed five-year large certificates of deposit, and some small and medium-sized banks even canceling the "whole deposit whole withdrawal" five-year products. It should be noted that similar interest rate gaps have already appeared in 2025, with two-year and three-year deposits maturing in 2025 also facing a decline of about 120 basis points upon renewal. The pressure in 2026 is more about marginal intensification rather than a first-time surge. On this basis, assessing the pressure of deposit outflows is crucially dependent on the actual scale of high-interest deposits. We believe that one cannot simply infer the original term structure based on the maturity term structure. For example, while deposits maturing within 1-5 years generally correspond to fixed deposits of two years or more, a considerable portion of these will not mature in 2026, and directly inferring will overestimate the volume of long-term high-interest deposits Therefore, we introduced a year-on-year rolling model for measurement, assuming that new deposits will maintain a term structure of 43% for 1 year and below, 15% for 2 years, 34% for 3 years, and 8% for 5 years in the long term, and will automatically roll over after maturity according to the original term. According to the model simulation, by the end of 2025, the proportion of time deposits in the entire industry with a remaining term of 1 year and below is approximately 63.4%, which is basically consistent with the 62.9% disclosed in the 2025 mid-year report, verifying the effectiveness of this term structure assumption in depicting the stability of the liability side. Based on this breakdown, among the resident time deposits maturing in 2026, the scale of deposits that truly belong to 2 years and above, which are relatively high-interest deposits, is approximately CNY 24.8 trillion, accounting for about 32.2% of the total maturing scale for the year. In comparison, the scale of high-interest deposits maturing in 2024 is approximately CNY 16.8 trillion, and in 2025 it is about CNY 20.3 trillion (an increase of CNY 3.4 trillion year-on-year), with an increase of about CNY 4.6 trillion year-on-year in 2026. It can be seen that although the scale of high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 is on the rise, the overall change is smooth. Overall, the scale of resident time deposits maturing in 2026 is approximately CNY 77 trillion, of which the high-interest deposits that involve significant interest rate reductions and repricing pressure are only about CNY 25 trillion, with a marginal increase of about CNY 4.6 trillion compared to 2025. Thus, the outflow pressure of time deposits in 2026 has indeed increased compared to 2025. However, it should be emphasized that 2025 itself has been continuously digesting high-intensity deposit repricing pressure, and the changes in 2026 are more like a continuation from this high level rather than a sudden occurrence. We believe that, in the absence of micro evidence support, it is inappropriate to make aggressive assumptions about the outflow ratio. Moreover, the actual rollover situation of time deposits in 2025 and the flow of funds can already provide a reference benchmark for observing subsequent marginal changes. After Maturity: How Many Might "Move"? So, what is the actual rollover situation of time deposits maturing in 2025? Is the deposit outflow accelerating? This may be an important reference for the flow of deposits maturing in 2026. On one hand, we attempted to directly calculate the deposit retention rate, and the rollover rate for time deposits maturing in 2025 is still close to 90%. We compared the theoretical derived scale of real funds with the final deposit increment for that year, thereby inferring the scale and proportion of time deposits that remain after maturity. The results show that in recent years, the retention rate of private sector maturing time deposits has remained stable at 80%–90%. Even under the realistic pressure of concentrated deposit repricing in 2025, the rollover rate is still generally comparable to that of 2023, and even shows a recovery compared to 2024 From the perspective of resident capital flow, cross-validation can yield relatively consistent conclusions. By comparing the allocation structure of new funds in the resident sector between "currency and deposits" and "financial product investments," it can be observed that the financial capital flow of residents in 2025 is highly similar to that in 2024, with no significant signs of accelerated inclination towards financial products such as wealth management, funds, and insurance. This also means that even as high-interest deposits gradually mature, residents' asset allocation remains primarily defensive and inertial, and the stability of the deposit system has not been significantly weakened. Overall, the current round of resident deposit reallocation that began around 2023 has not significantly accelerated due to the concentrated repricing pressure in 2025. The year 2025 appears more like a continuation of the previous adjustment trend. Of course, a high continuation rate does not mean that the impact of deposit reallocation on the market can be ignored in the future. On one hand, the scale of high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 will indeed further increase, and constraints such as the contraction of long-term deposit product supply and widening interest rate differentials will become more pronounced. At the same time, if the enthusiasm for risk assets such as stocks and commodities further increases in 2026, it may also create new disturbances in residents' decision-making. On the other hand, with approximately 77 trillion yuan of time deposits maturing, even maintaining a marginal outflow of 10-15% can no longer be considered a negligible friction item, but will gradually become an important marginal variable affecting market pricing. In fact, during the period of 2024-2025, funds flowing into assets such as insurance and funds have already begun to impact the market. Thus, the focus of the issue is shifting from "whether to continue" to "where to flow." The year 2025 has provided a phased answer, but as we enter 2026, whether this capital flow structure will change, and whether it may gradually penetrate from low-volatility assets to risk assets, remains to be further observed. The reallocation trend of 32 trillion yuan in maturing deposits in the first quarter may serve as an important observation window. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own risk