According to "The Big Banks," Huayan estimates that China Life had a loss of at least 7.4 billion RMB in the last quarter of last year, and is more optimistic about Ping An

HSBC Research published a report stating that according to the regulations for A-share listed companies in China, if their annual profit growth is at least 50%, they must issue a profit warning by the end of January. Although China Life (02628.HK) announced a year-on-year net profit increase of 60.5% for the first nine months of 2025, the company did not issue a profit warning, which the bank estimates may imply that China Life will record a net loss of at least 7.4 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The bank expects that investors will pay more attention to the growth of new business value this year, while noting that, compared to its peers, China Life still faces the risk of underperforming the market due to profit volatility. In contrast, investors tend to place more emphasis on the after-tax operating profit of Ping An (02318.HK), mainly because this metric is less sensitive to market fluctuations.

The bank expressed a more favorable outlook on Ping An, giving it an H-share target price of 84 yuan and a rating of "Buy"; at the same time, it set a target price of 29 yuan for China Life's H-shares with a rating of "Hold."