According to the latest macro commodity research report released by Goldman Sachs, the global crude oil market is undergoing a critical restructuring period.
According to the Wind Trading Desk, the core viewpoint of Goldman Sachs' February research report states: As the risk premium fades and the increase in OECD commercial inventories leads to a decline in fair value, both Brent and WTI crude oil prices are expected to bottom out in the fourth quarter of 2026, falling to $60/barrel and $56/barrel, respectively.
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Direct impact on investors: For energy investors, this means that the core trading logic in the market for the next few quarters will be &#34;digesting the oversupply.&#34; The report clearly states that the global crude oil market will face a significant oversupply of up to 2.3 million barrels per day in 2026.
However, the short-seller frenzy will not last long. Investors must position themselves in advance for a structural reversal—Goldman Sachs predicts that the crude oil market will fall back into a supply shortage in the second half of 2027. Although the benchmark forecast price will decline, Goldman Sachs warns that future price risks are two-sided, with overall risk skewed to the upside. While shorting the 2026 cycle, investors need to closely hedge against the severe rebound risk in 2027 due to structural shortages.
<h2>Fading Risk Premium: Oil Prices Will Find &#34;Iron Bottom&#34; in Q4 2026</h2>
Goldman Sachs' research report indicates that the downward cycle in the crude oil market will peak at the end of 2026. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of 2026, Brent crude oil will hit a bottom of $60/barrel, while WTI crude oil will hit $56/barrel.
The core logic driving this price reassessment is based on two aspects: first, the risk premium brought about by geopolitical factors is fading; second, there is a substantial decline in the fair value of crude oil. Goldman Sachs' model shows that the calculation of fair value incorporates the inter-temporal price differences of 1 month/36 months and the valuation of 36-month forward contracts.
Currently, the increase in sanctioned crude oil at sea has become an important factor suppressing expectations for OECD commercial inventories. With the increase in OECD commercial inventories (calculated by forward demand days) and the impact of the interest rate environment, the fair value of inter-temporal price differences is being suppressed; at the same time, combined with Goldman Sachs' top project cost curve and remaining capacity estimates, the valuation of forward contracts has also been adjusted downward.
<h2>Data Perspective on Supply and Demand Fundamentals: From 2.3 Million Barrels/Day Oversupply to 2027 Re-emerging Deficit</h2>
Goldman Sachs' quantitative data reveals a steep supply-demand dynamic curve. The global market will experience a period of extreme supply abundance, which will then be slowly digested by demand.
<blockquote>
<ul>
<li>2025: The market is already in a state of oversupply, with an average daily surplus of 1.7 million barrels/day</li>
<li>2026 (Surplus Peak): The supply-demand imbalance will sharply worsen, with an average surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day for the entire year. Among them, the surplus in the first quarter of 2026 will reach an astonishing 2.9 million barrels per day. From the supply side, global total supply will rise to 107.8 million barrels per day (an increase of 1.8 million barrels per day year-on-year), with U.S. total production increasing to 22.9 million barrels per day and OPEC supply also rising to 35.3 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, global demand will be 105.5 million barrels per day, unable to absorb the massive new supply.</li>
<li>2027 (Supply-Demand Reversal): This is a turning point in the market landscape. The average surplus for the entire year of 2027 will significantly narrow to 600,000 barrels per day. Most importantly, the market will return to a deficit in the second half of the year. Data shows that the surplus in the third quarter of 2027 will be only 300,000 barrels per day, while in the fourth quarter of 2027, the market will experience a supply gap of -300,000 barrels per day. This gap is due to global demand further rising to 106.6 million barrels per day, while global supply slightly decreases to 107.5 million barrels per day.</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<h2>Regional Differentiation: Non-OECD Countries Lead Demand Landscape Changes</h2>
On the demand side, the research report data shows a clear regional structural differentiation. Demand in OECD countries will be almost stagnant over the next three years, stabilizing in the range of 45.9 million to 46.2 million barrels per day.
The increase in global demand will rely entirely on non-OECD countries (increasing from 58.4 million barrels per day in 2025 to 60.5 million barrels per day in 2027). India has become the new engine, with demand showing the most robust expansion, growing from 5.8 million barrels per day in 2025 to 6 million barrels per day in 2026, and further reaching 6.3 million barrels per day in 2027.
Although the fundamental data for 2026 appears bleak, Goldman Sachs clearly emphasizes in the research report: The risk distribution of crude oil prices is bidirectional, but overall leans upward. This means that after the market experiences painful inventory accumulation and price bottoming, any unexpected supply disruptions or demand exceeding expectations could trigger a sharp retaliatory rebound in oil prices under the anticipated gap in 2027.
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Goldman Sachs' latest research report points out that the global crude oil market will bottom out in the fourth quarter of 2026, with Brent and WTI prices dropping to $60 per barrel and $56 per barrel, respectively. A supply surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day is expected in 2026, but a supply shortage may occur in the second half of 2027. Investors need to pay attention to the risk of price rebound due to structural shortages in 2027

Is there a glimmer of hope in the oil market? Goldman Sachs: Oil prices will bottom out by the end of 2026, and a supply gap may emerge in 2027