The United States launched a military strike against Iran, raising global energy market vigilance, with energy price risks and inflation rising in tandem. According to Xinhua News Agency, the United States and Israel jointly initiated a &#34;preemptive&#34; military strike against Iran on February 28, and Iran retaliated against multiple targets in Israel and the Middle East.
According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has issued radio warnings to passing merchant ships, stating that the Strait of Hormuz is currently &#34;unsafe.&#34; Several large trading companies immediately announced the suspension of oil transportation through the strait, and insurers also urgently canceled or significantly adjusted relevant policy terms.
Currently, the Iranian government has not made an official statement regarding whether the strait is formally closed. According to a Reuters report citing an official from the EU naval operation &#34;Aspides,&#34; a spokesperson for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has broadcast via very high frequency radio to merchant ships, clearly stating that &#34;no vessels are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.&#34;
Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. is launching a major military operation, targeting a much broader scope than last year's actions against Iranian nuclear facilities. The situation continues to escalate, drawing significant attention from the global energy market.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important energy export passage, with about one-fifth of global daily oil consumption flowing through it. Market participants warn that a vertical blockade of the strait, even limited disruptions such as harassment and seizure of vessels, would be enough to drive up freight rates and create tight oil supplies.
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Edward Fishman, director of the U.S. War Council's Geopolitical Research Center, stated:
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&#34;The impact of this war could be very broad, as oil is a crucial raw material in many areas of the global economy. Monetary policy and inflation could be affected by a chain reaction.&#34;
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<h2>Traders Suspend Transportation, Tankers Turn Back</h2>
According to Lloyd's List, due to the situation, several large trading companies have announced the suspension of their tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Several senior traders indicated that the warnings from the Iranian navy are quite credible, and it is expected that no vessels will risk crossing in the coming days. Reuters also cited a large trading company stating that its vessels &#34;will suspend passage for several days.&#34;
Lloyd's List's automatic vessel identification system shows that several vessels in the Persian Gulf and Oman Gulf have turned back, but some ships continue to cross the strait. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal reported that sources revealed a fully loaded tanker chartered by Shell, which was originally planned to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, is now anchored in place, while another is speeding towards South Korea. Industry insiders also reported explosions near Khark Island, Iran's main oil export hub, where approximately 90% of Iran's crude oil is exported
At the same time, there are reports that a tanker turned around near the Mandeb Strait under the threat of the Houthi armed forces, indicating that regional tensions are spreading to multiple key maritime routes.
According to data obtained by Bloomberg reporter Stephen Stapczynski from the dock, although the Strait of Hormuz remains open for now and shipping has not been completely interrupted, an increasing number of crude oil, refined oil, and liquefied natural gas tanker owners are proactively avoiding this area. Stapczynski posted on social media platform X:
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&#34;Many tankers and LNG carriers are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. Nippon Yusen (NYK) has advised its vessels to bypass this waterway.&#34;
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<h2>Insurance Market Responds Rapidly, Rates Up by 50% at Most</h2>
According to the Financial Times, war risk insurers officially issued policy cancellation notices to vessels navigating the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz before the opening of trading on Saturday, with some insurance premiums expected to rise by as much as 50% in the coming days.
Dylan Mortimer, head of marine and hull war insurance at insurance brokerage Marsh in the UK, told the Financial Times that the current war risk insurance rate for vessels navigating the Persian Gulf is about 0.25% of the vessel's replacement value, and a significant increase is expected this week. For example, for a vessel valued at $100 million, the premium for a single voyage could rise from $250,000 to approximately $375,000. Meanwhile, war risk insurers covering bulk commodities such as oil and grain carried by tankers also indicated they are preparing to adjust the premium terms for related commodities on Monday.
Mortimer pointed out that the biggest concern for insurers right now is whether Iran will officially announce the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while also assessing the risk of Iranian proxy forces attempting to board and seize vessels, and incorporating this into their pricing considerations. After policy cancellations, insurers are expected to renegotiate with shipowners at significantly higher prices rather than completely refusing to provide coverage for vessels entering the area.
<h2>Brent Oil May Exceed $100, Global Inflation Faces New Shock</h2>
Brent crude oil prices have risen by 19% since 2026, closing at $73 per barrel on February 28. As Brent futures will not resume trading until Sunday evening New York time, the direct impact of this military strike on the market can only be more comprehensively assessed at that time.<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/36d1ba77-8ebb-4ff7-bc01-14b4175affc3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/36d1ba77-8ebb-4ff7-bc01-14b4175affc3.png"/>
The market research organization &#34;Capital Economics&#34; pointed out in a report to clients that if the scale of this crackdown is limited, oil prices may approach $80 per barrel; however, if the conflict continues and leads to actual supply disruptions, oil prices could rise significantly and have a substantial impact on global inflation. The organization estimates that if oil prices rise to $100 per barrel, the global average inflation rate could increase by 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points.
Edward Fishman, director of the Geoeconomic Research Center at the Council on Foreign Relations, warned that the impact of this conflict could be very serious, as oil is a fundamental infrastructure element of the global economy. He expects that the chain reaction of monetary policy and inflation is very likely to follow. Rising energy costs will further squeeze consumers' spending power and may prompt the Federal Reserve and other major central banks to adjust their planned interest rate cuts, or even shift to raising rates.
<h2>Limited Supply Buffer, Quantitative Indicators Set to Balance Price Increase</h2>
Despite the ongoing geopolitical risks, analysts pointed out that several new factors may curb further increases in oil prices in the short term.
According to The Wall Street Journal, before the U.S. takes military action against Iran, Iran and other major oil-producing countries have accelerated shipments, and Asian refiners have also completed a large amount of procurement in advance. According to OPEC, the world's largest oil exporter has activated emergency plans to prepare to increase export volumes to the highest level in nearly three years to respond to potential supply disruptions in the market. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has also increased the delivery of crude oil to overseas storage tanks.
OPEC was scheduled to hold a meeting on Sunday, and analysts had previously expected that the Saudi-led oil-producing alliance would agree to increase production starting in April. However, The Wall Street Journal reported that the current tense situation may prompt OPEC to more seriously consider implementing the production increase plan ahead of schedule in order to stabilize market supply.
<h2>Low Probability of Comprehensive Lockdown, Local Disruptions Have Become Reality</h2>
Analysts generally believe that a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is unprecedented, and there are considerable operational difficulties, making it a low-probability but high-impact extreme scenario. A more realistic threat comes from Iran's harassment, interception, or even seizure of oil tankers, as well as the Houthis resuming piracy against merchant ships in the Red Sea.
Claire Jungman, maritime risk and intelligence director at energy data company Vortexa, stated:
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“We expect market volatility to increase, and the freight market may respond first, with insurers reassessing their risk exposure in the Middle East loading zones. Currently, this remains a pricing event rather than a fundamental event.”
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Vortexa also pointed out that there are more direct supply risks; if Iran's export infrastructure, including Khark Island or offshore loading systems, is attacked, the market may experience a reduction in actual supply within days rather than weeks

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is highly tense, with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard issuing warnings via radio to passing merchant ships, stating that "no vessels should pass through." The strait remains open for now, but many traders have suspended transportation, and oil tankers are turning back. The insurance market is reacting rapidly, with related premiums rising by as much as 50%. Analysts predict that if the conflict continues to cause supply disruptions, Brent crude oil could exceed $100, potentially raising global inflation by 0.7 percentage points. Although localized disruptions have become a reality, the probability of a full blockade remains low

Market Focus "Strait of Hormuz": Theoretically open, but "ships turn back," premiums soar