The situation in the Middle East has suddenly deteriorated, and the military actions taken by the United States in conjunction with Israel against Iran have thrown global markets into turmoil—oil prices have surged, stock index futures have fallen, and safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds have risen across the board. Investors are facing the most severe risk test since the significant drop in U.S. stocks last month.
On Monday (March 2), as the Asian trading session opened, both the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100 index futures fell nearly 1%, with the Australian stock market also opening lower.
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At the same time, Brent crude oil prices initially soared by 13%, but the increase has significantly receded, showing relatively moderate performance. The news of the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused severe fluctuations in the global oil market. Bloomberg Economics warns that if the strait remains blocked, oil prices could surge to $108 per barrel.
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Risk aversion has dominated the direction of the currency and bond markets. The U.S. dollar has strengthened significantly, the Swiss franc has risen slightly, and the Australian dollar has led the decline among risk-sensitive currencies; both Australian and New Zealand government bonds have risen.
Gold prices once increased by 1.6%. This round of shocks occurred against the backdrop of already pressured U.S. stocks—previously, the market had been in a fragile state under historically high valuations due to concerns over artificial intelligence prospects and credit worries, with U.S. stocks just recording the largest monthly decline since April last month.
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According to a previous article from Wallstreetcn, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military strike together, resulting in the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, marking the most severe shock to the geopolitical landscape in decades. In the cryptocurrency market, which was the only one to remain open over the weekend, prices experienced a &#34;V-shaped&#34; reversal from a sharp drop to a sharp rise, reflecting deep divisions among investors regarding the direction of this conflict.
Core market trends:
<blockquote>
S&amp;P 500 index futures fell 1.05%, Dow futures fell 1.16%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.06%;
The Australian S&amp;P/ASX 200 fell 0.4%;
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was basically flat; the euro fell 0.3% to $1.1781; the yen fell 0.2% to 156.35 yen per dollar;
The yield on Australian 10-year government bonds decreased by 4 basis points to 4.61%;
Brent crude oil futures rose 7.5% to $78.34 per barrel; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 7.3% to $71.94 per barrel;
Spot gold rose 1.5% to $5,357.53 per ounce.
Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $65,831.73; Ethereum rose 0.4% to $1,937.81.
</blockquote>
08:02
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to its lowest level since April 2025.
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08:01
The Nikkei 225 index opened down 1.5%.
<h2>Oil Price Shock: The Strait of Hormuz Becomes a Global Energy &#34;Dam&#34;</h2>
The core of the current market turmoil lies in the impact on global crude oil supply. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of the world's oil flow and is an irreplaceable energy chokepoint.
Digital signals indicate that tanker traffic through the strait has nearly come to a standstill, with three vessels near the entrance to the Persian Gulf attacked, sharply raising concerns about tightening supply.
Iran has stated that it has no intention of formally closing the strait, but the market is responding cautiously. Pepperstone strategist Dilin Wu pointed out:
<blockquote>
&#34;Even if the Strait of Hormuz is not officially closed, the forced rerouting of vessels and a significant rise in insurance rates have effectively tightened supply. This alone is enough to inject new inflationary pressures into the global economy.&#34;
</blockquote>
Bloomberg Economics further quantified this risk: If the strait is blocked, oil prices could surge to $108 per barrel. The continued rise in energy prices will have a profound impact on the global economy, which is already facing inflationary pressures.
<h2>Multiple Pressures Mount, Stock Market Faces Increased Pressure</h2>
This geopolitical conflict did not occur in a calm environment. Dec Mullarkey, Managing Director of SLC Management, stated:
<blockquote>
&#34;All of this is happening at a fragile moment when investors are becoming increasingly cautious. The U.S. stock market is highly sensitive to threats from technological disruption and credit pressures, and the prospect of rising commodity prices may force investors to further reduce risk exposure, triggering sell-offs.&#34;
</blockquote>
Adam Hetts, Global Head of Multi-Asset at Janus Henderson, wrote in a research report:
<blockquote>
&#34;The U.S.-led strikes against Iran have pushed up oil prices and reignited geopolitical risks. Our judgment is that the market is currently pricing in a limited conflict; unless the situation evolves into a prolonged standoff, the impact on broader investments remains manageable. As always, when uncertainty peaks, diversification and a long-term perspective are most important.&#34;
</blockquote>
It is worth noting that the market has often reacted mildly to geopolitical tensions—when the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear facilities last June, the stock market was hardly affected. However, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Chairman of Global Research at Barclays, warned that the scale of this conflict and its potential impact on the global economy is far greater than before, and investors should not rush to buy on dips
<blockquote>
&#34;The risk-reward ratio is not attractive. If the stock market corrects significantly—such as the S&amp;P 500 dropping over 10%—there may be a buying opportunity, but now is not the time.&#34;
</blockquote>
<h2>The Outlook for Treasury Bonds Faces Dilemma, Market Direction Awaiting Clarity</h2>
Geopolitical conflicts have also put U.S. Treasury bond trends in a contradictory situation.
The rise in risk aversion theoretically drives funds into Treasury bonds, lowering yields; however, if oil prices continue to rise and lead to broader inflation expectations, this will create upward pressure on yields—two opposing forces complicating the investment logic for Treasury bonds.
Bloomberg macro strategist Michael Ball pointed out: &#34;After the weekend events, the market's instinctive reaction will be to avoid risk. Until the scale and duration of the conflict become clearer, the willingness to buy on dips may remain relatively subdued.&#34;

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The core of this round of market turmoil lies in the impact on global oil supply. Crude oil prices initially surged by as much as 13%, but the increase has significantly retreated and is performing more moderately than expected. The news of the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused severe fluctuations in the global oil market. According to estimates, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, oil prices could soar to $108 per barrel

- The worsening situation in the Middle East, following U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran, has caused global market turmoil, with sharp increases in oil prices and declines in stock futures.  
- Brent crude oil surged initially by 13%, and concerns about supply interruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have heightened, with potential prices rising to $108 per barrel if blockades occur.  
- Investors are now facing heightened risks due to already fragile market conditions, with U.S. stocks under pressure from inflation prospects and geopolitical tensions.

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The escalation of conflict in the Middle East stirs global markets! S&P 500 futures drop nearly 1%, oil prices surge by 13% at one point, and gold approaches $5,400