Trump expects the conflict to last for 4 weeks, Hang Seng Index opens down 324 points, PetroChina and CNOOC rise by over 5%, Zijin Mining increases by nearly 3% | Hong Kong stock market opens

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has caused turbulence in the financial markets, but the atmosphere of tension has somewhat eased following the confirmation of Khamenei's death. The Saudi Arabia stock market index TASI opened with a sharp drop of 4.8%, but the decline narrowed, ultimately closing down only 2.2%; after the outbreak of war, Bitcoin plummeted on Saturday, barely holding above the $63,000 mark, and yesterday rebounded to over $68,000 at one point. Analysts suggest that the war may have a slight impact on Hong Kong stocks and could stimulate gold and oil prices to rise, with the market now focusing on whether the Hang Seng Index can hold above 26,300 points.

Trump Expects Conflict to Last 4 Weeks

According to foreign media reports, Trump predicts that the Iran conflict will last about 4 weeks, stating, "This is a big country, and it will take about 4 weeks—or maybe shorter." He also mentioned that the outcomes of the attacks so far have not surprised him. The Hang Seng Index opened down 324 points or 1.22%, reporting at 26,305 points. The spot gold price once rose to $5,393; currently reported at $5,332, up about 1%.

Tech stocks generally declined, with Alibaba (9988) opening down 2.3%; Tencent (700) down 1.2%; Meituan (3690) down 1.9%; JD.com (9618) down 1.4%; and Baidu (9888) down 2.5%.

However, oil and gold stocks were favored, with CNOOC (883) rising 5%; PetroChina (857) up 5.9%; and Sinopec (386) up 2.4%. In terms of gold-related stocks, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (6693) rose 4.9%; Shandong Gold (1787) up 3.9%; Zhaojin Mining (1818) up 3.2%; and Zijin Mining (2899) and its subsidiary Zijin Mining International (2259) rose 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively.

In addition, Chinese electric vehicle companies have announced February data, showing an overall month-on-month decline in the car market due to multiple factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the industry off-season, and the resumption of the new energy vehicle purchase tax. Among them, Leapmotor (9863) saw a year-on-year increase of 11% to 28,067 vehicles, but its stock price still fell 2.4% this morning; Xiaomi (1810) saw a month-on-month decrease of 48% in vehicle deliveries, with its stock price down 2%. BYD (1211) also saw its stock price drop by 2%.

Related article: China's electric vehicle February delivery volume Leapmotor recorded 28,000 vehicles, leading the way, while BYD's sales fell by 40%.

Guo Sihua, vice chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Analysts Association, stated that before the outbreak of war, the market was already aware of the U.S. military deployment, so the expected impact would not be too significant, and the war may not last long. He estimates that Hong Kong stocks will show a volatile trend in early March, with the Hang Seng Index likely testing 26,000 and 26,200 points, as funds may shift to safe havens amid market instability.

Nie Zhenbang, chief analyst at GaoGe Securities, pointed out that excluding the war, U.S. stocks were soft last Friday, including most of the U.S. tech giants, which may drag down large tech stocks in Hong Kong. Therefore, he believes that the market will increase selling pressure due to the war. However, the Hong Kong stock market may not decline significantly, as the Hang Seng Index may find support around 26,200 and 26,300 points, since the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei may accelerate the end of the conflict in the short term As an oil-producing country, Iran's announcement by the Revolutionary Guard to prohibit any vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz may drive up oil prices. However, Bloomberg cited sources indicating that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) held a meeting yesterday to consider a larger increase in production, which may offset the impact. OPEC+ representatives projected last week that after a three-month freeze on production increases, they would resume moderate output starting in April, having previously increased daily production by 137,000 barrels month-on-month in the fourth quarter of last year.

Brent crude oil was reported at $72.48 per barrel last Friday, while New York crude oil was reported at $67.02 per barrel. Bloomberg industry research analysts expect Brent crude to rise to $80 per barrel in the short term. Guo Sizhi mentioned that port export blockades will stimulate oil prices upward, which will subsequently lead to inflation and affect the pace of interest rate cuts in the United States.

Gold prices are expected to test $5,600

Guangda Securities International strategist Wu Lixian predicts that oil prices may test $70 or above, while gold prices will rebound significantly, initially testing levels of $5,300 and $5,400, and moving towards the larger resistance of $5,600.

Looking ahead to this week, China's National People's Congress will convene on Wednesday, the same day the February Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be released. In the United States, the non-farm payroll report will be released this Friday. The earnings season for Hong Kong stocks continues, with JD.com (9618), Bilibili (9626), and MINIMAX (100) among those announcing their results