In the Persian Gulf, dozens of supertankers loaded with crude oil are standing by. After the attack on the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important energy passage has effectively closed, regional logistics are in chaos, and oil exports have significantly slowed, with recent production prospects facing severe threats.
According to a report by Bloomberg on Monday, data from ship tracking agency Kpler shows that at least 40 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf, each carrying about 2 million barrels of oil. Several shipowners and captains have stated that they are waiting for the security situation to clarify before deciding whether to attempt passage through the strait. Meanwhile, more than half of the world's largest marine insurance associations have suspended war insurance for vessels entering the Persian Gulf.
The impact of the sharp decline in traffic has already made importing countries uneasy, but if the crisis continues for several weeks, oil-producing countries will also find it difficult to escape unscathed. JP Morgan analysts estimate that if the strait remains effectively closed for more than 25 days, it could force oil-producing countries to cut production.
<h2>Traffic Volume Plummets, Strait Effectively Closed</h2>
After the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran, the volume of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has sharply declined. Data from ship tracking platform Vortexa shows that on March 1, only 4 supertankers passed through the strait, compared to 22 the previous day.
Although Iran has not officially announced the closure of this vital passage, it has warned vessels not to pass through. As of Monday morning, at least 3 vessels have been attacked. The latest victim is the &#34;Sea La Donna,&#34; with details of the incident still under investigation. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), a multinational naval advisory agency, has raised the security alert level in the region to the highest level &#34;critical,&#34; citing &#34;multiple commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman, the entrance to the Musandam Strait, and UAE coastal waters have been confirmed attacked by missiles and drones.&#34;
In the past 24 hours, only a few large tankers have sailed out of the strait. According to ship tracking data, only two Iranian tankers under U.S. sanctions are currently near the entrance to the strait.
<h2>Shipowners on the Sidelines, Insurance Institutions Withdraw Coverage</h2>
In the face of escalating security threats, the shipping industry is generally adopting a conservative strategy. Several major shipping companies have advised their vessels to remain on standby. Fearnley Securities analysts Fredrik Dybwad and Sigurd Gjone Gabrielsen wrote in a research report: &#34;Given the recent developments, the inefficiency may further exacerbate, and we expect shipowners to generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude.&#34;
The exit of the insurance market further exacerbates the severity of the situation. The world's largest and third-largest ship flag registration agencies—the Liberia and Marshall Islands flag administrations—have required vessels to implement the highest safety level, meaning cargo loading and unloading operations must be suspended.
It is worth noting that the actual number of stranded vessels may be much higher than what tracking data presents. Many vessels choose to turn off their transponder signals to &#34;go dark&#34; and reduce risk, and signal interference further complicates tracking.
<h2>Oil-Producing Countries Face Production Pressure, LNG Supply Also Affected</h2>
The impact of this crisis has extended beyond the realm of crude oil transportation. The Strait of Hormuz is also a key passage for global liquefied natural gas (LNG). Qatar is the world's second-largest LNG exporter, accounting for 20% of global supply last year, and its export goods must pass through the Strait of Hormuz to reach buyers in Asia and Europe.
For oil-producing countries, if the crisis persists for an extended period, the consequences could be more severe. The capacity of oil storage facilities in the Persian Gulf is limited, and the number of available empty ships is also insufficient. If the crisis drags on for several weeks, oil-producing countries may face overflowing tanks and be forced to cut production. JP Morgan analysts estimate that if the Strait is substantially closed for more than 25 days, it could trigger mandatory production cuts.
In addition, several container ships have either stopped or turned back while passing through the Strait. The spillover effects of the crisis have also spread to the Red Sea—previously, the Houthi armed group in Yemen had continuously attacked passing merchant ships and recently threatened to resume attacks on cargo ships. Many of the world's largest container carriers have begun to replan their routes to avoid risks in the Red Sea.
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The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed due to attacks, resulting in at least 40 supertankers being stranded in the Persian Gulf and a significant slowdown in oil exports. More than half of the global maritime insurance associations have suspended war coverage for vessels entering the Persian Gulf. If the strait remains closed for more than 25 days, oil-producing countries may be forced to cut production. The U.S. and Israel's strikes against Iran have led to a sharp decline in traffic, with an unclear security situation prompting the shipping industry to adopt a conservative strategy

- In the Persian Gulf, over 40 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) are currently awaiting transit, following a significant reduction in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz due to regional security threats.  
- The situation has prompted major maritime insurance associations to withdraw coverage for vessels entering the Gulf, leading to increased uncertainty for oil-exporting countries.  
- Analysts warn that if the Strait remains closed for over 25 days, it could force producers to cut oil output, exacerbating the impact on global energy supplies.

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Substantial halt in navigation in the Strait of Hormuz? At least 40 super-large oil tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf