Nomura cuts Xiaomi's target price to 33 yuan, expects smartphone shipments to drop by about 20% this year

Nomura maintains a "Neutral" rating on Xiaomi (01810.HK) and lowers the target price from HKD 61 to HKD 33. The firm believes that due to rising bill of materials costs, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments face downside risks. The firm originally expected this year's shipments to decline by single digits year-on-year, but after experiencing several months of worsening market conditions, if overall cost pressures do not ease throughout the year, shipments may decline by approximately 20% year-on-year.

Moreover, the sales base for the Internet of Things business has been at a high level from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, coupled with high market expectations for the electric vehicle business. The firm is concerned about Xiaomi's smartphone and electric vehicle businesses this year, as demand and profitability may be weaker than expected