Market panic intensifies! The US-Iran conflict escalates comprehensively, and all parties are still working to clarify the US war objectives

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, while Washington has yet to clearly articulate its war objectives, putting increasing pressure on global financial markets. According to CCTV News, the Saudi Ministry of Defense stated on the 3rd local time that the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia was attacked by drones that caused a fire and partial damage to the building. The U.S. has ordered its citizens and non-essential government employees to evacuate from more than a dozen countries in the Middle East, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. Geopolitical tensions are sharply rising, energy prices are soaring, and global stock and bond markets are under simultaneous pressure. Asian stock markets saw a significant increase in declines compared to the previous trading day, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific benchmark index dropping about 3%; the Korea Composite Stock Price Index plummeted 7.2%, leading the regional market; S&P 500 futures fell by 1.5%. Safe-haven assets are showing mixed performance: the Bloomberg Dollar Index's cumulative increase over two days has expanded to 1.2%, while government bonds have been sold off, with the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rising by 6 basis points to 4.10%, and the yield on the UK 10-year Treasury increasing by 12 basis points. Brent crude oil prices rose by 7%, surpassing $83 per barrel. Ambiguous War Objectives, Divergent Statements The U.S. has provided inconsistent characterizations of this military action, making it difficult for the market to assess the direction of the conflict. According to Bloomberg, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Monday local time that the purpose of this action is to destroy Iran's ballistic missile program and naval capabilities to eliminate threats to global shipping, emphasizing that the objectives can be achieved without deploying ground troops, while warning that "the most severe strikes have yet to come." Additionally, U.S. officials have previously cited multiple reasons, including regime change, Iranian nuclear threats, Israel's military readiness, and Iran's domestic repression of protesters, further exacerbating external confusion regarding strategic intentions. The market is awaiting clearer signals. According to Bloomberg, Trump is expected to hold a press conference after meeting with German Chancellor Merz at the White House on Tuesday morning local time, with the public anticipating a more explicit explanation of the objectives of the action. Trump previously stated in an interview with NewsNation that the U.S. would retaliate against the attack on the embassy in Riyadh, but regarding the specifics of the retaliation, he only mentioned, "You will know soon." Energy and Shipping: Direct Economic Impact of the Conflict The conflict has a direct impact on global energy supply and shipping systems. Almost all civilian flights in the Gulf region have been suspended, and Dubai International Airport—the largest aviation hub in the region—has been damaged following an Iranian drone attack, forcing many travelers to reroute through Muscat, Oman In the energy sector, European natural gas benchmark futures prices have surged over 20% in just two days. Qatar Energy's global largest liquefied natural gas export facility was forced to halt production due to a drone attack in Iran, and buyers in Asia are scrambling to seek alternative sources and requesting early delivery of LNG shipments to cope with supply shortages. The passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively come to a standstill. Data shows that the strait is a critical chokepoint for global energy transportation, carrying about one-third of the world's maritime oil trade daily, and its prolonged closure will have far-reaching impacts on the global energy market. Market Risk Aversion Logic Fails, Bonds and Stocks Under Pressure Simultaneously The market turmoil triggered by this conflict exhibits unusual characteristics: fixed-income assets have failed to perform their traditional safe-haven function, with government bonds and stocks declining simultaneously. The market is concerned that a prolonged conflict will drive up oil prices, exacerbate inflationary pressures, and thereby compress the interest rate cut space for central banks, fundamentally weakening the attractiveness of bond assets. Howard Marks, co-founder of Oak Tree Capital Management, attending the Australian Financial Review Business Summit in Sydney, reminded investors to be wary of emotional decision-making. He stated: "The most important thing is to recognize how much we don't know; since we don't know what this means, perhaps there's no need to do anything smart." Private Credit Under Pressure, Blackstone Responds to Record Redemptions Beyond the market turmoil triggered by the conflict, the private credit industry is also facing pressure. Blackstone is allowing investors to redeem a record 7.9% of its flagship private credit fund, corresponding to approximately $3.8 billion. According to regulatory filings and company spokespersons, Blackstone has expanded the previously announced tender offer to 7% of the fund's total shares, with the remaining 0.9% of redemption demand being absorbed by the company and its employees. In recent quarters, redemption requests for several private credit funds have continued to rise, and market concerns about this asset class are increasing day by day. Part of the reason is that its exposure to software companies is facing disruption risks from artificial intelligence, while private credit business is one of the core pillars for Blackstone to surpass traditional acquisitions and achieve diversified expansion