The Strait of Hormuz blockage threatens the Middle East food supply chain, Iran fully bans food exports

As merchant ships increasingly avoid the Strait of Hormuz, the food import channels in the Middle East have been cut off, putting Gulf countries at risk of shortages, and exacerbating the food supply pressure in Iran, which is already mired in high inflation. Iran announced on Tuesday that it would completely ban the export of food and agricultural products effective immediately until further notice, to ensure the supply of basic goods domestically. Ishan Bhanu, an analyst at commodity data analysis firm Kpler, warned that if the shipping disruptions continue, Iran will face "serious food issues." The crisis has already extended beyond Iran itself. A Waitrose supermarket in Dubai, UAE, experienced shortages of whole chickens and minced beef on Sunday, reflecting stockpiling behavior in the market. The UAE's Ministry of Economy and Tourism stated on Saturday that the country's strategic reserves are "sufficient, comprehensive, and diverse," and urged the public not to hoard supplies. Experts from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned that if the conflict continues, there may also be shortages of sugar and tea. Christian Henderson, an assistant professor of Middle Eastern studies and international relations at Leiden University in the Netherlands, stated that there is an "immediate risk to food security" in the region, and countries like Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia, which rely on the UAE as a transit hub, also face shortages and rising price pressures. Strait of Hormuz: The Lifeline of Gulf Food Supply The Strait of Hormuz carries the vast majority of food imports to the Gulf region, making its strategic position crucial. According to Kpler data, the Gulf region imported approximately 30 million tons of grain last year, with about 14 million tons destined for Iran, most of which was transshipped via the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler estimates that about 40% of Saudi Arabia's grain and oilseed imports come through its eastern Gulf ports, while about 90% of the UAE's imports come through Jebel Ali Port in Dubai. Jebel Ali also handles containerized food and perishable goods for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar, serving a population of approximately 45 to 50 million. Henderson pointed out that Gulf countries are highly dependent on imported food, and disruptions in the strait pose a direct threat to food security across the region. Limited Alternative Routes, Rising Cost Pressures According to FAO trade experts, Iran has been importing some grains overland, such as wheat from Russia and rice from Pakistan, and could also reroute imports through the Caspian Sea and the Red Sea. However, Bhanu stated, "We believe these channels cannot replace the throughput of the Persian Gulf ports." Saudi Arabia can reroute some cargo to Red Sea ports, while the UAE can shift some trade to Fujairah Port, located outside the Strait of Hormuz. However, Fujairah Port was originally primarily used for energy and fertilizer exports, and its container handling capacity is far less than that of Jebel Ali. "It can handle containers, but it is nowhere near the same scale," Bhanu said, and port modifications will also incur costs. Henderson noted that wealthy countries, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have sufficient financial resources to absorb rising import costs. In extreme cases, governments could choose to airlift high-priced perishable goods, as Qatar did during the blockade in 2017 Iran: Double Blow of Inflation and Sanctions Iran is one of the countries most heavily pressured by the current supply chain disruptions. Although Iran has some domestic agricultural capacity, its imports of grains and oilseeds remain substantial. Bhanu stated that Iran imports "almost all" of its corn and a large amount of soybeans and wheat through the Strait of Hormuz. This conflict adds to an already severe economic situation. According to data from the Iranian Statistical Center, as of the 19th of the second month of the Iranian calendar, the inflation rate for food and beverages in Iran soared to over 105%, while the annual inflation rate during the same period was 47.5%. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated in February this year that one-third of Iran's population lives below the poverty line. To address this, Iran launched a food voucher program in January this year, providing 10 million rials (approximately 6 USD) per month to 80 million citizens as a subsidy for purchasing basic necessities. Compounding the problem, U.S. sanctions on Iran's financial system have made import payments increasingly difficult. Bhanu noted that in the past two months, several ships loaded with corn have been waiting offshore near Iran, because importers are struggling to raise hard currency to complete payments. Vulnerability Varies by Country, Landlocked Nations at Highest Risk Among the countries in the Gulf region, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain are in the most vulnerable positions. All three lack large deep-water ports of their own and are heavily reliant on supply routes that pass through Saudi Arabia and the UAE. More remote countries such as Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia also face risks. These nations rely on the UAE as a crucial transshipment point for goods, and if the capacity of Jebel Ali Port is restricted, their food import costs and supply stability will be adversely affected. Regarding the current situation in the UAE, the empty shelves in supermarkets reflect more of a consumer stockpiling behavior rather than a structural supply disruption. However, analysts warn that if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz do not ease, this assessment could change rapidly